Moonee Valley (Fri)

Race 5 – 8:30pm

Showpero (12) is on top, with Certain Ellie (11) next best from Invincible Al (6), Liberty Song (8), Runson (3) & Plateau Gold (1).

Showpero comes across from Adelaide after a seven-week let up, having been super consistent in all five starts this campaign and The ‘Cock doesn’t see the break as a concern. Rates a $3.50 top chance and currently priced that.

Runson is a double-figure chance from the next bunch to keep an eye on first up, having produced big runs fresh previously to win two of his three first up appearances and he is certainly one to watch.

Top selection Showpero finished 2nd, narrowly beaten by $5 3rd selection Invincible Al.

Race 6 – 9:00pm

Moonlover (8) rates best for The ‘Cock, from Valderrama (5), Seven Year Reward (11) & Act Of Valour (1) as the next trio.

Moonlover is currently a $4.80 chance in the market following two strong runs this campaign, both at Mornington and including a comfortable last start win which produced a career-high rating. The ‘Cock endorses that top billing and expects she will only go better third up, rating a $3.20 top pick.

Valderrama is well accustomed to performing first up as he is today, with his best effort good enough to put him in the finish if replicated today, rating $6 for The ‘Cock and currently more than double that price.

The favourite Seven Year Reward has a perfect record after three starts but this will be a tougher ask than those runs at Geelong, Bairnsdale and Sale. The 7-length debut win at Geelong rated well enough to win this, with only a minor query over the trip at his first attempt over 1200m.

Another 2nd for The ‘Cock, with $6 chance Moonlover beaten by the $12 roughie Wind Force.

Race 7 – 9:30pm

Potemkin (10) comfortably the pick of the bunch, heading History Repeats (16), I Am The Dark (1), Highgate Hill (12) & The Thug (5).

The ‘Cock isn’t looking too far past his top rater Potemkin, who has had three weeks since his last start win at Geelong and is well priced at $5 compared to The ‘Cock’s $3 rating. Well up in distance here jumping from the Cox Plate start, but the run here two starts back over a mile where he was beaten by a nose and the subsequent improvement with the last start step-up in trip gives The ‘Cock confidence he can handle it here.

Top selection Potemkin was scratched, leaving this a low confidence race which was claimed by a $24 chance Brilliant Jet.

Race 8 – 10:00pm

Niminypiminy (7) & Jolies Cafe (5) are the two standout chances, with Good Therapy (9) & Pittsburgh (8) the pick of the outsiders.

Niminypiminy ran a strong second here last time out with a run that rated well enough to account for most of this field if replicated. Well into her campaign but the last two runs have suggested she isn’t slowing up, and The ‘Cock has her narrowly on top rating a $3.50 chance.

Jolies Cafe is in career best form following a last start win here over the mile, which came on the back of three incredibly tight losses from the four outings prior. Relatively lightly raced still and looks to The ‘Cock’s expert eye to be getting better with racing so expect him in the finish.

Niminypiminy ran unplaced, with Jolie’s Cafe finishing 3rd. The ‘Cock didn’t find the $26 winner Mr Gustavo.

Canterbury (Fri)

Race 5 – 8:15pm

Serene Miss (3) rates comfortably on top of this race, from Fanning (2) & I’m A Jet (8) as the biggest dangers.

Serene Miss is two from two after winning on return from 34 weeks in the paddock at Scone two weeks ago, and The ‘Cock can see no reason she doesn’t go better again with another run under her belt. Rates a $2.20 top selection for The ‘Cock and is currently slight overs at $2.70

The ‘Cock’s clear top pick Serene Miss was backed like a certainty and raced like one too, winning the race at a $1.70 SP.

Race 6 – 8:45pm

Valentino Rossa (8) is on top of a much tighter race, with Nacho Libre (11), Cellarman (2), Spinning Gold (12) the next in line.

Valentino Rossa saluted impressively second up at Goulburn and only has to hold that rating to be in the finish here. No concern coming to the city and rates well over the odds at $12, with The ‘Cock rating him half that price.

Nacho Libre was a long way off his best last start on return when running last at Warwick Farm but The ‘Cock is prepared to forgive that effort, given he consistently rates high enough to challenge in this race if he can get back to the usual level of performance. Another double-figure chance to monitor for any support, rating a $6.50 chance.

The ‘Cock can’t knock the winning credentials of the $3.90 favourite Cellarman coming in off a last start win at the track and trip, and while he must be respected The ‘Cock would be hesitant to get too involved with that top quote.

Top pick Valentino Rossa was a narrow second at $8, with Cellarman winning the race at $4.40.

Race 7 – 9:15pm

Radical Impact (13) & Raijinz (1) are The ‘Cock’s leading pair in a tight top end, from Fifteen Sunflowers (2) & He’s Our Toy Boy (14) next.

Radical Impact produced a high rating run for second last time out here, and despite being winless in 22 attempts at the course The ‘Cock can definitely see him rectifying that today. He has had eight minors here so is far from useless at the track and rates a $5 chance for The ‘Cock.

Raijinz was fifth in the same last start race as Radical Impact first up in what was a blanket finish, and The ‘Cock expects improvement second up that will put him right in the finish. $13 price tag certainly overs compared to The ‘Cock’s $6.50 rating.

Top selection Radical Impact finished 3rd with an SP of $17, paying $3.80 the place. Winner Satirical Magic wasn’t in The ‘Cock’s selections.

Race 8 – 9:45pm

Think Like A Bird (12) easily rates on top of all comers in this field, with Crosley Hotshot (5), Dalmatia Prince (11) & Shield Wall (7) the best of the rest.

Think Like A Bird looks like a very strong investment here coming back north after a last start fifth in the Group Three Tesio at The Valley on Cox Plate Day. The ‘Cock has her improving once again over more distance today and far and away the best bet of the race at $4.60, nearly double The ‘Cock’s $2.50 rating.

Think Like a Bird was well supported in early betting, but failed to fire a shot and was well beaten.

Sandown

Race 7 – 4:00pm

The Taj Mahal (8) & Almandin (1) are The ‘Cock’s best two for this year’s edition of the Zipping Classic, with So Si Bon (6) & Big Duke (2) the only other genuine challengers.

The Taj Mahal was heading in the right direction late in the Emirates Stakes, and with an extra 400m to work with today The ‘Cock expects him to be right in the picture. The $4 top odds on offer currently are not far off The ‘Cock’s $3.60 rating.

Technically speaking, Almandin is has gone up in weight compared to his Melbourne Cup run, but without the burden of Frankie Dettori on his back this time he should be far better off. Oliver back in the saddle after suspension a positive and he will enjoy the 2400m more than he did the 3200m eleven days ago. The Cup run wasn’t as strong but he has produced ratings high enough to win this throughout the campaign so far, so while The ‘Cock would be hesitant at $2.50 you’d be a fool to rule him out.

Big Duke ran a huge race for fourth in the Melbourne Cup which has attracted plenty of attention, opening at $3.20 which The ‘Cock considers too short to touch despite acknowledging that he should be at the pointy end of proceedings. The step back in trip won’t suit him as much as it will the leading two.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock’s top two are clearly the best chances in the race but are already very well found in the market at $4 and $2.60 respectively. The Taj Mahal is very slight overs compared to The ‘Cock’s $3.60 price tag, and while this is not a high confidence betting race he is one to take at anything above that price. So Si Bon is the roughie of the race to monitor who rates around half that current top quote of $16 and may be the one to look at with a small bet.

The ‘Cock continued his dominance of the Spring features, with best bet The Taj Mahal saluting at $5, beating next rated selections Almandin & Big Duke to round out the trifecta.

Race 8 – 4:40pm

Snitzepeg (1) & Beau Geste (2) rate clearly on top of the others, though the tight next group of Octabello (6), Hypnotist (4), I’ll Have A Bit (11) & Vinland (8) are all capable at their best.

Once again the market agrees with The ‘Cock’s assessment of this race, with Snitzepeg & Beau Geste the two favourites at $4.80 and $4.50 respectively.

Snitzepeg stepped up to the mile for the first time of his career last start and ran a close fifth in the Carbine Club on Cup Day, a run which followed two strong listed wins in the two outings prior and rated higher than both of them. Expect he laps it up again here and will prove very hard to beat, rating a $3.50 equal top chance.

Beau Geste was another in the middle of that blanket finish in the Carbine Club who has been unlucky in both of his two starts in Melbourne this campaign and could easily be a big improver today. Sydney form to start his career prior to that was exceptional and will challenge Snitzepeg at his best.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock is splitting hairs to separate these top two after running his comprehensive ratings process, but given the $4.80 and $4.40 overs on offer The ‘Cock would proportionally stake his bets to back both Snitzpeg & Beau Geste and could easily take them alone in the quaddie, with the numbers listed the ones to look to for any wider plays.

The ‘Cock’s assessment of the Carbine Club proved to be the wrong form line here, with the top 2 selections both finishing out of the placings.

Race 9 – 5:20pm

The ‘Cock has got Raw Impulse (6) rating well on top of this field, with a gap to Payroll (10), Jacquinot Bay (8) & Dodging Bullets (7).

It took a big run from Fastnet Tempest to beat Raw Impulse on Stakes Day, and without him to contend with today The ‘Cock expects DK Weir and Damien Lane to combine for another win here. Raw Impulse’s best ratings are clearly ahead of what anything else in this field has produced and the seven-day backup is a strong sign that he is getting back to that level, rating a $3.20 top chance for The ‘Cock.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• At the current top odds of $3.70, The ‘Cock would be happy to open his shoulders on Raw Impulse and enjoy the spoils. Given the skinny play in the previous leg, including all listed numbers in the quaddie here could be advantageous.

Raw Impulse was friendless in the betting and drifted all the way to a $5.5 SP, producing a performance to match. 2nd selection Payroll was a $6.5 winner.

Race 10 – 6:00pm

Invincibella (5) goes in on top, from Petition (8) as next best and with a gap to Red Is The Rose (12), Ravi (1) & Sebring Dream (6).

The ‘Cock believes Invincibella only has to hold her recent form to win again here, having saluted twice in her four starts back this campaign with two tight minors for good measure. Ratings have been consistently high and traditionally peaks fifth up as she is today, with The ‘Cock rating her a $3 leading chance.

Petition is the $3.10 race favourite currently after running less than a length of Global Glamour in the Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield last time out, and while she is going to need to improve on that to topple Invincibella, The ‘Cock wouldn’t back against it. Will steer clear of less than $4.50 but have to respect and include in exotics.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• A tight race for the most part but Invincibella is a rare standout and a good investment at the $4.60. Given the extremely tight bunch of horses that follow the leading two, The ‘Cock would be playing quaddies wide with all listed numbers as a minimum.

Invincibella was backed as if she was unbeatable, coming all the way into a $3 SP but she ran like a horse at the end of a prep and failed to finish in the placings.

Rosehill

Race 6 – 3:45pm

Interlocuter (6) rates on top of Black On Gold (8) & New Tipperary (3), with Prince Cheri (4) the next biggest danger for wider plays.

Interlocuter is the odds-on favourite after five wins and two seconds from his eight career starts thus far, and with the last start step up to 1800m producing his highest rating yet, The ‘Cock has no concerns at 1900m. The $1.90 top quote is too short to get involved in compared to The ‘Cock’s $2.70 rating but no doubting he is the top winning chance of the race.

Black On Gold has registered two wins and a tight second from his three starts this campaign, and while he needs to improve on the last start win here over 1800m he looks to be heading in the right direction and it would not surprise The ‘Cock to see him take it up to the favourite.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock can’t knock the dominant favourites credentials despite not wanting to take the $1.90, and given there is no value to be had on the next lot of chances behind him it’s a race not to be too involved in.

Top selection Interlocuter was backed off the map and won well, with a skinny $1.50 SP. Next best Black on Gold finished 2nd.

Race 7 – 4:20pm

Pipeline (9), Fifteen Sunflowers (7) & Best Guess (6) rate as The ‘Cock’s top trio, with Star Reflection (11) & Caerless Choice (3) the next best.

The ‘Cock likes Pipeline first up here if he can go close to the rating that saw him kick off last campaign with a win at this track and trip. Has a perfect record fresh and there’s nothing to suggest he can’t do it again, rating a $3.50 top chance for The ‘Cock and currently paying well over that.

Fifteen Sunflowers improved out of sight to win at Canterbury by five lengths last start with a career peak rating, though this was well and truly above anything she had produced previously. The market shares The ‘Cock’s query over whether it was an aberration or the new standard but can’t dismiss entirely so monitor for support.

Best Guess is the $3.60 favourite after three very strong runs to kick off this campaign, including the last start run for third here over 1100m. Only has to show some natural progression fourth up to be in the finish, though The ‘Cock wouldn’t be buying into less than $5.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Absolutely have to respect the favourite Best Guess but The ‘Cock considers Pipeline the better investment avenue at the overs of $8. Not one to put all six houses on but The ‘Cock is confident enough to buy in, though each of the listed runners should be included in any quaddies.

Pipeline was well found in the betting and was the best backed runner in the race, but only managed a 3rd placing with favourite Best Guess winning at $2.30.

Race 8 – 5:00pm

Redouble (3) & Cosmic Engine (2) sit on top for The ‘Cock, with Brother In Arms (5) & Flow (4) the next best and main challengers.

Redouble is consistently rating at a level which The ‘Cock expects to win this race, with two strong runs from his three this campaign and medical excuses in the one disappointing run. Seven-day back up after the win here over 1300m and The ‘Cock is confident he holds the form, rating a $3 top chance.

Cosmic Engine can be a bit up and down but his last start win when fresh at Canterbury was strong, and though he usually dips slightly second up The ‘Cock would be surprised if he wasn’t one of the first few past the winning post. Would want upwards of $5 before getting involved, with the current top quote slightly below that mark.

The first up win of Brother In Arms at Nowra suggested to The ‘Cock that he has come back better this prep and he if improvement continues he can certainly challenge the leading two, similar to fellow roughie Flow who can hit the rating required to win first up as a $20 shot.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Of the leading two chances, The ‘Cock would be more confident investing in Redouble who is the best bet in the race at the $3.40. The current top odds of $21 for both Brother In Arms and Flow are definitely overs compared to The ‘Cock’s rating and make them worth considering for a small bet on each.

Top selection Redouble was a strong winner at $4.60, with other selections Flow and Cosmic Engine rounding out the placings.

Race 9 – 5:40pm

Fickle Folly (13), Pomelo (10) & Tango Rain (8) are The ‘Cock’s top trio who are all capable of winning this race, ahead of Glenall (11) & Tactical Advantage (9) as the next best.

Fickle Folly has two wins from two runs this campaign, meeting the step up from Tamworth to Randwick last start and rating very well. Tends to improve third up where she has never missed the money, so at very juicy overs of $9 compared to The ‘Cock’s $3.80 rating she can’t be missed.

Pomelo is the race favourite after a track and trip win a fortnight ago and has only got to repeat that rating to be in the photo today. Still slight overs at $4.20 but represents significantly inferior value for money compared to Fickle Folly.

Tango Rain was well down on his usual level last start here when running fifth behind Pomelo but The ‘Cock is happy to ignore that run based on the veterinary report post race, with his form prior to that incredibly strong. Had a win and three minor placings by a combined margin of less than a length from the four previous outings and The ‘Cock expects him to run them close again here, rating him a $6 chance.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• As mentioned, Fickle Folly is an absolute must have at the $9 on offer currently, though he fully expects this price should come in once the first few thousand Peacock followers sink their teeth in. Not as buoyant about an investment on her at less than $5 where the value differential between her and Pomelo is less significant but certainly take each of the top three in all exotics and you may want Glenall and Tactical Advantage to pad out the quaddie.

The ‘Cock got this one wrong with Fickle Folly failing to place, but subsequent winner Glenall was noted as one to include.

Morphettville

Race 6 – 3:36pm

Swipe Me Right (13), Tabbing (11), Via Balciano (10) & Street Embrace (5) are the leading quartet, from Freedom Road (4) & Hussy’s Glow (8) as next best in a very tough race.

Swipe Me Right’s previous best rating would account for this field quite comfortably, and while he has been a few notches below that of late he is holding a relatively strong level of performance deep into a campaign that stretched back to April. A rough chance to monitor, with The ‘Cock rating him a $6 chance.

Tabbing missed by a nose here last weekend but The ‘Cock is encouraged by the quick backup for this and fully expects him to be on the podium. Is the likely leader and is capable of going all the way, rating on par with Swipe Me Right so the $7.50 is reasonable value.

Via Balciano has got the most scope for improvement on his last start effort where he was bobbed on the line here, though there was a big drop in rating compared to his debut win at Balaklava. Should he get back to the level of his first win he will blow them away, which is reflected by the $4 favouritism.

Recommended Betting Advice:

• It’s certainly a low confidence betting race but with Via Balciano the only sub $5 chance in current markets, it has created some value on the other leading chances around him if you want to have a few small bets on the likes of Swipe Me Right and Tabbing at $12 and $7.50 respectively. Ultimately it’s one not to get too invested in and play wide in exotics.

The low confidence betting race became even worse when the best bet was scratched, and $31 winner Redente’s Edge proved this was a race to steer well clear of.

Race 7 – 4:11pm

Trogir (5) is the clear pick of the race and should win, from Another Bender (6), Barood (1) & Embecee Lil (3) as The ‘Cock’s next best.

Trogir has got the most potential of any runner in the field as shown as he cantered in against weaker company here ten days ago, and despite the step up in grade, The ‘Cock expects he can more than measure up to this field. Rates a $2.50 top chance and currently sitting upwards of $4.

Another Bender is a 25/1 shot to monitor here after she romped in fresh last start at Wangaratta, and with a very good second up record The ‘Cock has her marked a $7 chance. Will need to improve and hope Trogir is off his game but it would not surprise The ‘Cock to see her salute at big odds.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock would be putting all his eggs in the Trogir basket at the current top price of $4.60 and would be happy to take one out in the quaddie. Those looking for something else could have a small bet on Another Bender at $26.

Trogir was backed like it was unbeatable, firming from the $4.60 mentioned here to an SP of $2.70 but failed to fire and finished out of the placings.

Race 8 – 4:51pm

Bakers Dozen (5), He Is Golden (15) & De Jorvik (9) are the top three in a very tight field, heading Zalmona (6) & Pale Ale (10) as the next best pair.

A big and mediocre field to enjoy here, with The ‘Cock’s top three the only runners that really stand out from the mire.

Bakers Dozen has never missed the money first up as she is today and even after assessing her harshly The ‘Cock considers her good enough to win this, rating on top as a $3.40 chance.

He Is Golden was third on return over the Parks course here two weeks ago and rated well enough to challenge here if he at least matches that today, though he traditionally improves second up which has The ‘Cock getting interested in the $14 top odds.

De Jorvik is another double-figure chance who is well over the odds after running second behind The ‘Cock’s top pick in the previous race Trogir last start and having won well at Balaklava a start prior. Third up today and definitely a leading winning chance.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• All of these top three are currently good bets at the $3.80, $14 and $12 top odds on offer at the moment and provide a good opportunity for a proportional staking plan to cash in on this race.

The ‘Cock’s top 2 failed to finish in the placings, with eventual winner Military Forces saluting at $13.

Race 9 – 5:31pm

Cosmic Lights (3) is comfortably on top, ahead of With A Bit Of Dash (7), Too Tuff Tara (13), Burrums Buzz (6) & Tenere (1).

Cosmic Lights has got the ability to produce ratings well above what anything else in this field has shown themselves capable of and is in after a six week freshen up following a move to South Australia. His run for second behind Ebediyin three starts back at Moonee Valley would beat this field by four lengths, and The ‘Cock rates him a $2.30 chance to do it again.

Too Tuff Tara has only got three starts under her belt and looks capable of improving again today so is one to be mindful of at double-figure odds.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• $2.70 is the maximum price available for Cosmic Lights and more than enough to prompt The ‘Cock to throw his hands at it to land a big blow to finish the day in Adelaide.

Cosmic Lights ran well, but could only finish in 3rd position with noted runner Burrum’s Buzz winning at $5.5.

Ascot

Race 5 – 7:00pm

Variation (3) is the top pick for The ‘Cock, ahead of Material Man (1) & Royal Star (7) as the two most likely to topple him.

Variation immediately stood out to The ‘Cock after only missing by a whisker here last start second up, and after two strong minors from his two outings this campaign he looks primed to go one better third up. Consistently hits the level that The ‘Cock expects to win this and rates a $2.90 chance, so while the price isn’t right at $2.25 The ‘Cock certainly can’t dispute the top billing.

Material Man is the best of the challengers after running a big race fresh to win the Northam Cup last time out, and he would only need to match that effort to take it right up to Variation. He has a perfect record second up and could easily improve today so goes into The ‘Cock’s book as a $4 chance.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• There is no knocking the favourite’s claims, though the $2.25 is unders and The ‘Cock would happily let it go through to the keeper, with Material Man representing better value for money at the $4.80 and one to look to if betting around the favourite. Best to include all three top picks and simply tick this leg off.

Material Man was certainly the one the money came for, firming from $5 into $4.4, but could only manage a 4th placing. Properantes was a knock out winner at $21.

Race 6 – 7:37pm

State Solicitor (8) is the standout chance, rating a length ahead of Dainty Tess (6), Profit Street (4) & Whispering Brook (1).

Another dominant favourite here in State Solicitor, who is unders again at $1.70 with Pike in the saddle but should certainly win it having registered eight victories from his eleven starts.

Whispering Brook is the only other runner in the field to have hit ratings close to State Solicitor, and while this was now a year ago she has a perfect record at the track and trip and will appreciate dropping back to 1100m after the last start third over 1400m.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• To suggest anything other than State Solicitor one out would be over complicating this race, with Pike only needing to hold on to what looks like a sure thing.

State Solicitor did as it was expected to do and won well, but with little to get excited about with a $1.55 top fluc.

Race 7 – 8:12pm

Mikimoto (4) looks to be another Pike certainty, with Art Series (2), Sophias Secret (5) & Private Dancer (7) next in line.

Expect this race to play out just as the Listed Burgess Queen Stakes did here on Melbourne Cup day over 1400m, with Mikimoto too good for them despite having plenty of difficulties throughout. Has got everything going in her favour today, with the step up to 1600m only going to help her win by more. Rates odds-on for The ‘Cock, and while she is currently unders at $1.80 you wouldn’t be backing anything else with any confidence.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock would sleep very easily on Friday night knowing he had Mikimoto one out, but those looking to play things safer could include the next three chances and absolutely guarantee this is another leg ticked off.

Mikimoto started $1.65 but could only manage a 3rd placing. The ‘Cock’s 2nd selection Art Series provided a boilover at $8 odds.

Race 8 – 8:47pm

Busters Shadow (9), Thunderclap Newman (8), Couleur Bizarre (4), Juicing Carrots (7), Star Value (5), Dark Musket (3) & Solar Sky (13).

A complete raffle of a final leg, with The ‘Cock not able to confidently declare a single runner in this field incapable of winning.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Play this as wide as possible in exotics, with some huge odds on offer from The ‘Cock’s top-rated chances above that can hopefully boost the quaddie payout after the three strong favourites in the races prior.

This race proved to be the raffle The ‘Cock predicted, with $13 chance Not Again Ken saluting and the first 4 paying $16k.