Moonee Valley (Fri)

Race 5 – 8:30pm

Belwazi (5) rates about 1 length on top of Magnetar (2), with a small gap to the others. The ‘Cock has some concerns about Belwazi 3rd up given she’s proven to be at her best fresh in her brief career so far, so whilst she’s the best bet in the race it’s not one to get too involved in.

Top selection Belwazi won, paying $2.90.

Race 6 – 9:00pm

Haukland Beach (11) has finished 3rd at it’s 2 most recent runs, but The ‘Cock has rated the performances highly and thinks she could surprise a few at $26+, so looks a great bet. Kastor (12) & Beach Life (1) are the other top rated chances in the race.

Haukland Beach got too far back and failed to finish in the placings at $31.

Race 7 – 9:30pm

You’ve Been Had (11) has a perfect 2/2 record and rates on top again here, but is definitely under the odds at $2.50 & not a runner to be betting on at those odds. Tango Rock (4) looks the biggest danger & The ‘Cock has him assessed as a $5 chance, so he looks a good bet. Mr Walker (6), Archie Luxury (16), I Boogi (10), Hes A Moral (5) & Reincarnate (1) rate as the next best chances.

You’ve been had drifted like The ‘Cock expected and finished out of the placings, with noted danger I Boogi winning at $13.

Race 8 – 10:00pm

The ‘Cock rates Emaan (13) as his top selection after a strong 1st up performance that she should improve on, with Gauteng Gal (4) & Paper Chaser (14) the biggest dangers to beat her.

Emaan got no favours in the run and dived late, but only managed 3rd placing.

Canterbury (Fri)

Race 5 – 8:15pm

The ‘Cock is betting around the favourite Roseito (9) who is under the odds at $2.50. Jaunty (5) rates on top after a strong win last start & provides value at any price over $3.5, withAtlantic Fox (3) & Nacho Libre (6) the next best.

Roseito was a big drifter, with $3+ available at the jump but defied that to win. Nacho Libre finished 2nd at $10.

Race 6 – 8:45pm

The ‘Cock has Portatorio (11), Malaise (1) & Serene Miss (4) rated as his top 3 runners & given the odds differential he’s very keen to back Portatorio. Portatorio brings strong rating provincial form that The ‘Cock thinks will measure up well here & think she looks a good bet at double figure odds.

Top selection Portatorio was scratched, with next best rated runner Malaise finishing 2nd.

Race 7 – 9:15pm

This is a tricky betting race with multiple winning chances and low confidence on the top rated runners, so The ‘Cock suggests steering clear and playing it wide. Top selections are Satirical Magic (9), Invincible Quest (10) & Your Way (3).

Noted selection Invincible Quest won, paying $5.

Race 8 – 9:45pm

Another very even race where The ‘Cock has assessed at least 6 horses with genuine winning claims. Lightning Nic (13) rates marginally on top but provides no value at the current $4.4 quote with Uncle Sugar (11), Crosley Hotshot (1), Tradtri (12), Praise Songs (10) & Geometrist (6) all capable of winning. Calypso Bay (2) & Shes Magical (14) both look under the odds at their current odds of $4.40 & $6 respectively.

Opening favourites Calypso Bay & She’s Magical both drifted and failed to finish in the placings as The ‘Cock expected. The race went to plan as one to steer clear of, with the winner paying $26.

Sandown

Race 6 – 4:00pm

There’s very little between Sprightly Lass (8) & Mystified (4) who rate as The ‘Cock’s clear top 2, with Miss Wonderland (6) the best of the others

Sprightly Lass has a career record of 3/3 & she’s improved at every start, with her most recent win rating ahead of what The ‘Cock expects this field can produce.
Mystified produced a 2nd up run at Moonee Valley earlier this year in a performance that would win this & her 1st up effort this campaign was better than what she did previously.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock has nothing splitting his top 2 runners & with $3+ available on both, he suggests having a proportional stake on both Sprightly Lass & Mystified as long as that price is available (Take $2.40+ now with the scratching). Include Miss Wonderland in exotics.

Sprightly Lass ended up far shorter than The ‘Cock was happy to back her at, with 2nd selection Miss Wonderland upsetting the odds on favourite at $5.

Race 7 – 4:40pm

Jungle Edge (1) rates clear on top for The ‘Cock, with very little splitting the next lot which include Invincible Al (7), Thermal Current (3), Nasdex (8) & Lady Esprit (5).

Jungle Edge is a G1 winning front runner who is classes above this field & looks well weighted relatively even though he has 62kg. He’ll relish the heavy going and if he can perform near his strong win last start, he’ll win.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock suggest betting up in this race, with a high level of confidence that Jungle Edge will be too good for this field & he’s great value at anything over $3.

Jungle Edge was one of The ‘Cock’s best bets of the day & he ran as expected, with a dominant winning performance paying $2.60.

Race 8 – 5:20pm

Nights Watch (9) is the clear top rater for The ‘Cock, with Coldstone (1), Unrealistic (13), Guizot (12), Jolies Cafe (14) & War Legend (8) the next best.

Nights Watch rates a clear 2 lengths on top of his rivals here & looks incredibly well suited in this with the lightweight off the back off an impressive last start 2nd. Unproven on anything worse than a slow, but The ‘Cock is making an assumption that he’ll handle the going.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock suggests playing this race aggressively & is all chips in on Nights Watch at any price greater than $2.40. This is also a race where you could take him one-out in the quaddy.

On a day where The ‘Cock had very few high confidence races, this was another one where he put the shoulders back and got the results, with Nights Watch a strong winner at $3.90.

Race 9 – 5:55pm

A very difficult race to end the day, with a capacity field and lots of 1st up runners. Data Point (9) rates as the best chance in the race, with Milwaukee (6) & Widgee Turf (15) the best of the others.

Data Point brings the best 1st up ratings to the race & his best is on a heavy, so he’ll appreciate the give in the track.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• This is an open race which The ‘Cock has little confidence in. He’ll be watching for a push on Data Point who he rates as a $5 chance and provides some value, but suggests either betting small or leaving the race alone & playing it wide in the quaddy.

Data Point started a $3.50 favourite, but was no match for The ‘Cock’s 2nd selection Widgee Turf who won at $5.

Rosehill

Race 6 – 3:40pm

The ‘Cock has assessed that there’s a clear top 2 in Savapinski (4) & Green Sweet (3) with Montauk (8) & Black On Gold (7) the next best.

Savapinski is a lightly raced mare who has won 4 from 7 career starts including a dominant front running effort at Flemington last time out. Goes again at the 2000m & The ‘Cock sees no reason why she won’t hold her form which makes her the clear horse to beat, but she’s no value in current markets as The ‘Cock has her assessed at closer to $2.80.
Green Sweet is an interesting runner who resumes in his 4th Australian start here after being imported from France. He does run well fresh and brings strong overseas formlines, so if he’s improved off his first preparation he can definitely match it with Savapinski & The ‘Cock thinks he looks like a great value bet.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock rates Savapinski on top but she’s under the odds at less than $2.80 so he won’t be backing her. Given the value on offer, he’ll be keeping a close eye on markets for any push on Green Sweet and will be backing him if it looks like he’s primed 1st up. Others listed aren’t hopeless & could certainly roll the top 2, so include all in quaddy numbers.

Savapinksi proved a runner to stay away from at the $2.1 quote, Green Sweet was $17 into $12 but failed to run as strongly as he was backed. The ‘Cock didn’t find the $7.5 winner Broadside.

Race 7 – 3:20pm

A very difficult betting race, with at least 5 genuine winning chances & 2 of The ‘Cock’s top rated runners resuming off breaks. Mister Sea Wolf (9) rates on top, but any of Federal (8), Good Project (3), Cabeza De Vaca (4) or Mighty Lucky (5) could win too.

Mister Sea Wolf is 1st up in Australia for Waller after being imported from Ireland & brings some strong rating performances including a listed race 2nd at The Curragh over the mile 2 starts back. He’s one to watch in the betting, because if he’s wound up he could rate better than most runners in this field.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Given the uncertainty in this race with the fact that The ‘Cock’s top rated runner Mister Sea Wolf is having its first Australian start, he suggests playing this race safe and not getting too involved. Play it wide in your quaddy.

This proved a race to play wide in the quaddy, with the outsider of the field Testashadow winning at $21. Those who backed Mister Sea Wolf had a nervous 30 seconds after the race whilst the judges looked at the photo, but he was beaten a lip.

Race 8 – 4:00pm

Tactical Advantage (15) rates on top, but it’s very even after that with Sir Plush (9), Egyptian Symbol (5), Dothraki (1), Glenall (12) & Tango Rain (17) the next best rated runners who could all win if the top selection performs below par.

Tactical Advantage produces strong consistent ratings and comes into this off the back of a near career peak performance last start when 2nd to Glenall. He gets a nice weight swing in this and rates as the clear horse to beat.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock has a high confidence level in this race and thinks that Tactical Advantage looks great value at anything over $3 with at least double that available in early markets. Outside of him, it’s a very open race so go wide if you want to include others in your quaddy or exotics.

The ‘Cock wasn’t the only one who assessed Tactical Advantage on top, with the gelding subject to a huge betting move which saw him start favourite. But he was no match for 3rd selection Egyptian Symbol who was a $7.5 winner.

Race 9 – 5:40pm

Best Guess (6) rates marginally on top in a very even race with Machinegun Jubs (8), Milwaukee (11), Pipeline (15) & Man Of Choice (10) all capable of winning too. Plenty of resuming runners makes this a very low confidence and poor betting race.

Best Guess has won 2/4 this prep and has not finished further back than 3rd – with his career best rating performance coming in his dominant last start win. He’s the horse to beat here, but The ‘Cock has him assessed at $3.80 so he’s no value in current markets & the others listed are all capable of an upset

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock wouldn’t suggest backing the top selection at anything less than $3.80, but would also be hesitant in backing any of the others to beat him. Take all listed runners in exotics.

Top selection Best Guess was a big drifter in the betting, getting well out to a $4.80 SP but failed to fire. The race proved the lottery The ‘Cock predicted, with Uptown Lad a $13 winner.

Doomben

Race 6 – 4:28pm

No Annamossity (2), Revaldor (9), Hi Harry (8), Aqua Vite (15) & Bracteate (6) rate on top in a low confidence betting race which is incredibly even and not one that The ‘Cock is too keen to get involved in.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• In such a low confidence & even betting race, The ‘Cock would be very hesitant to get involved in backing No Annamossity at the current $3.80 or Aqua Vite at the current $4. Hi Harry at $20+ or Bracteate at $15+ plus could both be considered for small bets, but you may want to avoid this race entirely and play it wide in exotics.

The ‘Cock’s roughie Bracteate was $19 into $11 & looked the winner at the 200m, but peaked on his run to finish 4th. This proved another race where you were well served steering clear of, with Mishani Phoenix winning at $21.

Race 7 – 5:08pm

This is a low confidence betting race, but The ‘Cock is happy to bet around the $3.20 favourite Pierata (6) who will need to hit a career peak 1st up at an unsuitable 1200m to win this. Bring It Home Pop (2) & Saint Patricks Day (4) rate as The ‘Cock’s top 2, with Michani Bullitt (3) the next best.

Bring It Home Pop resumed with a strong 1st up win last start, proving he’s trained on as a 3yo which many of the others are still yet to do. He’ll be better suited 2nd up over the 1200m, so with some natural improvement still to come he looks the horse to beat.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• This is a low confidence race with many question marks, but Bring It Home Pop ticks enough boxes for The ‘Cock to suggest he’s the horse to be backing at anything better than $3.80. Given the uncertainty of the race, The ‘Cock suggests playing it safe in the quaddy and including all listed runners.

Bring It Home Pop firmed significantly, with a top fluc of $3.1 but was no match for Pierata who indeed hit a new peak 1st up & is now a runner to watch as he’ll get better over more ground.

Race 8 – 5:48pm

Monsieur Gustave (2) rates as The ‘Cock’s clear top pick, with Palazzo Pubblico (9) & Siegfried (6) the next best. Calanda (5) is in the next bunch of runners, but will need to hit a new career peak to win and looks big unders at $3.

Monsieur Gustave finished his last prep with 2 straight wins and resumed 10 days ago with a big career peak 1st up which suggests he’s got a big campaign ahead of him. He’s got a proven record of running well 2nd up & The ‘Cock has assessed that if he can hold his form from last start, he’ll win the race & looks a good bet at $4+ ($3+ after scratchings).

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be taking on the favourite Calanda & betting around it with Monsieur Gustave the runner to back at $4+ ($3+ after scratchings). The other noted runners could upset if he’s off his game, so include them in any exotics.

Another race on a low confidence day where The ‘Cock put the shoulders back & found the winner, with Monsieur Gustave saluting at $5.20.

Race 9 – 6:27pm

Poor scheduling by the Doomben Turf Club to run 3 quaddy legs over 1200m, with the multitude of 1st up runners making them difficult legs to assess for punters. The final leg of the day has almost all of the field resuming off breaks & it looks a very low confidence race with The ‘Cock having no runners that he’s particularly keen to back. Kubis (13) rates on top with Lelu (14) & Sailor Gerri (12) the next best rated runners.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock isn’t keen to bet in this race, though his top rated runner Kubis does provide some value at any price over $6. This is a race to play wide in exotics and be very respectful of any strong betting moves on runners not listed.

2nd selection Lelu finished 3rd, with the race won by a question mark runner returning off a spell.

Morphettville

Race 5 – 4:11pm

A difficult race to assess, with Danouli (6) clearly the horse to beat if he brings his last start effort but The ‘Cock has some query on whether he can. Beau Rivage (7), Flow Meter (3), Rib Eye (2) & Get The Picture (4) are all capable of winning too.

Danouli produced a big effort in his last start 2nd with a performance that rates clearly superior to this field. But he’s a 7yo gelding with plenty of exposed form, so The ‘Cock is wary that the last start effort may have been a once off & it’s hard to be too confident that he’ll produce to the same level again.
Beau Rivage looks the biggest danger after a strong run last start where he finished 3rd. Despite not winning this prep, his form is trending in the right direction and he should peak here.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock suggests leaving this race alone from a win bet perspective & would be including all listed runners in exotics.

A poor betting race, with noted runner Get The Picture winning at $4.

Race 6 – 4:51pm

The ‘Cock has just over 2 lengths between his first to last rated runner here in what looks an incredibly poor betting race that he’ll be steering well clear of. Wildwood Court (5), The Ultimatum (6), Verreaux (2) & Cavalry Gold (10) rate on top but any horse could win this race.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be heading to the bar for this race & couldn’t be less interested in getting involved. With all runners capable of winning, he’d be reluctant to leave anything out of the quaddy & will be hoping for a roughie.

The ‘Cock almost got the roughie he was hoping for, with the outsider of the field Robocop getting narrowly beaten by favourite Exalted Lightning.

Race 7 – 5:31pm

Mystified (6) rates clear on top with not much splitting the next best including Big Effort (5), Itz Invincible (1), Irish Mint (9), Invincible Al (2) & Vicki’s Boy (11).

Mystified produced a 2nd up run at Moonee Valley earlier this year in a performance that would win this & her 1st up effort this campaign was better than what she did previously so The ‘Cock is confident she’s on track to produce a big run.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock is all chips in on Mystified but is wary that she’s also entered in Melbourne. If she doesn’t run, it’s a race to play wide and winner could come from any of those listed. (Mystified now scratched from Sandown, so looks a high confidence bet here)

Mystified ended up odds on after the scratchings, but failed to fire a shot and finished midfield. The ‘Cock failed to find the winner Oamaru Owl.

Race 8 – 6:08pm

Another poor betting race to finish a very average day at Morphettville, with The ‘Cock assessing that Zalmona (12), Good Therapy (2), So Skilled (3), Embecee Lil (6) & Enki (13) are clearly the best winning chances but with not much splitting them.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Multiple winning chances here & The ‘Cock isn’t overly keen to get involved. Embecee Lil looks well under the odds at $3 given how closely she is rated to the others, so that has created some value on the others listed if you wanted to bet around her. Either way, this is a race to play wide.

The ‘Cock’s 2nd and 3rd rated runners ran the quinella, but there was no value on Embecee Lil who won at the skinny quote of $2.25.

Ascot

Race 5 – 6:35pm

A 2YO feature to start the quaddy makes it very difficult to assess, with most runners either not having run before or having their 2nd start. Nocelle (5), Chasing The Ace (9), Nemiroff (3) & Fairtrusive (7) rate as The ‘Cock’s top 4 but there’s very little confidence given the lack of assessed form.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock recommends leaving this race alone & would play it very wide in the quaddy.

No bets recommended here, but the top selection Nocelle won at $6.

Race 6 – 7:10pm

The ‘Cock has a clear top 3 here, with Mantime (6) on top followed by River Dance (1) & Danehill Matilda (12) rated just behind. He’ll be betting right around Finance (13) at $4 who will need to improve at least 3 lengths on recent form to be competitive here.

Mantime led throughout in a strong rating win last start & he typically gets better with racing so The ‘Cock sees no reason why he won’t improve on that effort. He showed good early speed to cross from the wide barrier last start, so he should be able to contend with the wide barrier again here.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock rates Mantime as the runner to beat & has him assessed as a $2.50 chance so he’s terrific value currently and looks a great bet. The others listed could challenge if he’s not on his game, so should be included in any exotics.

Mantime was off the map in the betting, starting favourite & looked home at the 200m, but he tired in the final 50m with roughie Niccatrice winning at $24.

Race 7 – 7:50pm

The G1 Winterbottom looks an incredibly competitive affair with The ‘Cock assessing that Dream Lifter (4) & Malibu Style (5) are the only two who can’t win it. His top rated runners are State Solicitor (8), Fuhryk (12), Whispering Brook (10), Viddora (9) & Rock Magic (1). The ‘Cock has this race assessed as $8 the field, so couldn’t possibly be backing State Solicitor & Viddora at $3 & $4 even though he’s got both rated in his top 5 & would prefer to take the value plays.

Whispering Brook looks the best value play in the race after being beaten less than 1 length by State Solicitor last start in what was still a very strong rating performance. She hasn’t won in a while, but her runs have been far better than they look on paper and her best efforts are good enough to win this. Looks the best bet in a difficult race at $15+.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock would be playing this race very wide in the quaddy & though he rates State Solicitor marginally on top he’d prefer to back Whispering Brook at the big double figure odds to beat him.

Whispering Brook was $21 into $13 but couldn’t finish in the placings. 4th pick Viddora drifted to $5+ and won well, though The ‘Cock still considered her unders at that price.

Race 8 – 7:50pm

Another very even race to end the day with The ‘Cock rating Entrechat (1), Juicing Carrots (7) & Dark Musket (2) his top 3 but there’s many others that could win the race. Reveille (8) at $5 looks well under the odds & The ‘Cock would be keen to take her on but this is a very low confidence race that he suggests not getting too involved in.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be looking to play a pretty straight bat in this race & wouldn’t suggest having any win bets, whilst also playing it very wide in the quaddy.

Reveille was the right runner to lay at $5, as she failed to finish in the placings. But The ‘Cock failed to find the $10 winner Jazari.