Flemington

Race 1 – 12.15pm

They’ll rocket down the straight in the opener, with the likes of Nasdex (3), Thelburg (6), Sunday Escape (4) and Bullpit (7) the speed injectors.

Nasdex (3) has come up favourite in the early markets at $3.50 but The ‘Cock has him marked longer and will be looking around him for value.

He has both Sunday Escape (4) and Demonstrate (2) rated on top around $5.50, showing our open this event is given small field of nine. Both are worth small BOB investments, Sunday Escape (4) will be going hell for leather from the get go whilst Demonstrate (2) will be carving through late from a midfield position.

Recommended Betting Strategy: The ‘Cock thinks Nasdex (3) is a false favourite in the early markets at $3.50, have pimple sized Best of the Best bets on Sunday Escape (4) and Demonstrate (2) to win in a very open race.

Race 2 – 12.50pm

One of the better betting races at Flemington. The ‘Cock has slashed this down to a two-horse race, with favourite Kings Will Dream (5) rating on top from Wheal Leisure (6) with daylight to the next best rated runners.

Kings Will Dream (5) is shaping up as a real horse to follow in the spring as he most likely targets the Caulfield Cup and other handicapped staying races. Has got better with each run in Australia, remaining undefeated here for trainer Darren Weir. Should take full benefit of a likely moderate tempo as he’ll settle in the first couple and take a power of beating.

If he was however to not show his best, Wheal Leisure (6) is a real danger. Stayer that was specked at odds when left flat footed against some classy middle distance runners over 1400m first-up at Caulfield. Rise in trip and coming to Flemington are both huge ticks. Trained by one of the most underrated trainers in the land (Archie Alexander), she is a great bet at $5.50+ ($7.00 available in early markets).

Recommended Betting Strategy: Bazooka time, have big bet on Kings Will Dream (5) at Best of the Best and medium sized bet on Wheal Leisure (6) at $7.00 with Bet 365 (or at Best of the Best if price is gone).

Race 3 – 1.25pm

There looks to be good speed in this, with Downhearted (9), Simply Invincible (11), Sunday Prey (10) and Prima (7) the likely cohorts to be up front early.

On early prices, The ‘Cock is happy to bet around favourite Portman (6), who has come up $4.00 but is far (far, far) longer in his ratings.

In a general open race, there are a few small value plays with the main one being King’s Command (3). He will should get a lovely run in transit from a midfield spot. Having fifth straight run at 1400m, he impressed when rattling home to win at Sandown last start and class rise will prove no great impediment.

Notio (12) also rates shorter than Portman (6). Been right around the mark without a win in three runs this prep. Last run at Flemington over 1600m was exceptional, he can even lower output slightly from that effort and be right in the finish in this. The ‘Cock thinks he is a great Best of the Best bet.

Recommended Betting Strategy: Play around current $4.00 favourite Portman (6), who has come up at rock bottom odds. Snip the value with King’s Command (3) and Notio (12), both worth backing for an interest at Best of the Best.

Race 4 – 2.05pm

Not a vintage edition of the Sires Produce for the 2yo’s. Too many unknowns here with The ‘Cock getting no runner shorter than $7.50. Given much will also fall down to luck in running from 1400m start, he is happy to skip this one.

Recommended Betting Strategy: No bet race.

Race 5 – 2.40pm

Nothing stands out in this race, with The ‘Cock having no runner marked shorter than $7.00 and confidence low on finding any real solid betting propositions given early market pricing.

There isn’t much between Bella Martini (1), Summer Sham (3) and Shokora (8) at the top of the ratings around $7.00-$7.50 but you must have the discipline not to bet race to race so skip this and wait for bigger things in the back end of the card.

Recommended Betting Strategy: No bet race.

Race 6 – 3.15pm

Redzel steering away has blown this year’s G1 Newmarket Handicap wide open, with the 3yo Merchant Navy (11) coming up the $5.00 favourite in early markets from last start G1 winners Redkirk Warrior (1) and Brave Smash (2) around the $7.00 mark.

The early speed in this will come from Thronum (7) and Lord Of The Sky (3) ensuring it is run along at a fast clip. This is a race The ‘Cock is fond of as it was the scene of his infamous 1992 double, where he coupled up the flying grey sprinter Schillaci into Hawthorn to win the Fosters Cup to collect a fortune.

He is keen to continue his trend of finding the winner in the Newmarket and is confident Booker (14) can run a huge race, having the 3yo filly marked favourite in his ratings. Her effort in the G1 Oakleigh Plate was enormous, never worse than 4-5 deep throughout yet she still had the tenacity to be beaten just under a half a length by the superstar Russian Revolution. She has performed well down the straight at two previous runs and with any luck in transit this time, she can surprise with her current odds of $9.50 in early markets huge overs.

Another value option will be Thronum (7), who looked to have pinched the G1 Orr Stakes before being swallowed up late. First time down the straight is a small concern however she maps to lead this field and at her current $13 price in early markets, she is also excellent shopping.

Redkirk Warrior (1) was brilliant winning the G1 Lightning Stakes last start over Redzel and he is also the reigning G1 Newmarket winner from last year (was first-up on that occasion). Issue is he has a familiar pattern of peaking off the charts first-up then dipping viciously second and third-up. He is too good to completely risk but at $7.00 or lower, he does look under the odds.

Best of the rest is Brave Smash (2), who will really be a threat should the speed be on and he gets the breaks late in the race to storm over the top. He should get out to backable odds of $9.00+ by raceday.

Recommended Betting Strategy: Have a real good go at Booker (13), the $9.50 on offer (or more if you utilise boost products) is excellent odds for a filly that The ‘Cock has marked favourite. Small save bets on Thronum (7) at $13+ and Brave Smash (2) at $9.00+.

Race 7 – 4.00pm

This will be an excellent betting race, with three main runners priced under $5.00 and all bound to attract support from the differing segments of punter (Pub TAB degenerate to wannabe pro to The ‘Cock).

Not expecting a stack of pace in this, with Spanish Reef (5) the likely beneficiary given she should roll to a forward spot for Craig Williams.

Samovare (3) rates on top, comes into this off okay first-up run when second to Silent Sedition over 1400m at Caulfield. She improved 3-4L second up last spring and there is no reason to think she won’t find at least 2L here which is all she needs to do to prove very hard to beat. Maps to settle in a handy to midfield spot and with Oliver on, she’ll get every chance to win this.

Main danger will be Spanish Reef (5), who was MH370 (off the map) in betting when winning first-up at this track last start. That effort was by far the best of her career but she’ll need to maintain that to win this. Chances obviously significantly heighten if afforded a soft lead.

Ma Jones (7) is best of the rest. Shillelagh (1) has come up under the odds in the $4.00 region, outside of major spring win hasn’t produced efforts to deserve starting under $6.00 and maps to get back with slow tempo not suiting.

Recommended Betting Strategy: Dump the truck at Best of the Best on Samovare (3), race looks ideal for her and if close enough to the speed in running, she will take beating. Likely leader Spanish Reef (5) the danger, you must save on her at Best of the Best.

Race 8 – 4.35pm

G1 Australian Cup with a few unknowns around the speed map. Does the William camp use Homesman (10) to be pacemaker or at the very least, ensure Gailo Chop (4) doesn’t get it all his own way in front and allows the main two chances in Almandin (2) and The Taj Mahal (9) to finish off over the top. In addition, the presence of the Waterhouse trained Supply and Demand (6) could ensure a faster tempo than most would predict.

It is hard however to go past Gailo Chop (4), won two lead up races impressively and from forward positions, he has the ability to sustain high pace over the closing stages which makes it hard for those behind to reel him in. He is short enough at the moment around the $3.00 mark however, would need $3.70+ for The ‘Cock to declare him a bet up proposition.

Almandin (2) has the ability ratings wise to blow these runners off the track. His effort winning second-up over spring at this track over 2500m was astronomical and if he can get within 1-2L of that, he is a major threat to a Gailo Chop (4) procession. He did enough first-up at Caufield to suggest he is ready to rock here.

Keep Single Gaze (11) safe in your Quaddie investments, she turned in that amazing first-up run in the G1 Orr Stakes before running a solid second to Gailo Chop (4) last start at Caulfield. Rise in distance suits her as will the wider expanses of Flemington. Any price over $10 would be marked overs.

Recommended Betting Strategy: Early markets are scarily close to The ‘Cock’s ratings, disappaiting any immediate betting plays. Would need $3.70+ to be on Gailo Chop (4) and $7.00+ to be on Almandin (2).

Race 9 – 5.20pm

Good value to be found in the finale on Super Saturday. Tempo should be solid with Freeze Over (5) engaged but by end of day, there could be a bias to a certain section of the track so keep that in mind with bets.

One of the major overlays  for the day can be found with Streets Of Avalon (9). He has a fitness edge on ,many of these and whilst up since November, he has failed to miss a place from nine runs this prep and was unlucky at big odds when third at Caulfield over 1200m last start. He has gone up $11 in early markets, big value play.

She’s So High (7) is the X factor, resumes from spell after showing talent over spring against top 3yo fillies. Market will be best indication to stable confidence around her fitness for this race but if even 90% for this, she looms as a major winning chance with any price over $4.00 overs.

Next best on the ratings is Freeze Over (5).

Recommended Betting Strategy: Keen to bet up on She’s So High (7) at Best of the Best and grab the $11 with Bet365 for Streets Of Avalon (9) to cover the chopper bill back to Clown Casino.

Randwick

Assessments done for an expected SOFT track.

Race 6 – 2.35pm

The ‘Cock has got very little splitting this G1 Canterbury Stakes field from top to bottom, and that combined with the hot early tempo from Global Glamour (7) & Invincible Gem (6) should make this a good spectacle for purists, however it doesn’t make for much of a betting race.

Happy Clapper (1) rates narrowly on top of all comers coming in today for his first start since running second to Tosen Stardom in the Emirates Stakes, and while he generally runs well fresh The ‘Cock will need $6+ before backing him in such a competitive race.

Apollo Stakes winner Endless Drama (3) also rates as a key chance but is a similar proposition to Happy Clapper given how tight the race is, and there will need to be $7+ on offer to entice an investment.

The other runner to note is Clearly Innocent (2), who will relish any additional moisture in the track more than most others so monitor track conditions.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Keep an eye on the odds around Happy Clapper (1) & Endless Drama (3) and act accordingly if the price is right, but this could easily be a race to sit back and enjoy with a glass of ’88 Glenfiddich and no financial involvement.

Race 7 – 3.20pm

The ‘Cock dedicated two hours of study to this years edition of the Randwick Guineas and he is very confident with his assessment of Kementari (3) as the leading chance in the race following his two consecutive wins at group level coming in.

He will be one of the runners going forward to set a hot early tempo with Siege Of Quebec (11) & Trapeze Artist (2) alongside, but the $2.50 on offer at the moment is slight unders compared to The ‘Cock’s $3 tag.

Peaceful State (7) produced a big effort behind Grunt in the Australian Guineas at Flemington last Saturday and should put in another strong run on the seven-day turnaround, with The ‘Cock loving the $13 top quote for him in early markets.

Expect that price to be crunched before long, with The ‘Cock having virtually no gap between him, Pierata (5) & Dargento (10).

Recommended Betting Strategy:

This is a good race to be getting involved in via a medium sized stake on Kementari (3) in Best of the Best circles, with a dose of Peaceful State (7) at the $13 your recipe for a fill-up

Race 8 – 4.00pm

A race to be playing conservatively in the quaddie with six of the thirteen starters resuming from spells, which includes the deserved favourite Sugar Bella (9) who is going to be suited by the hot tempo at which this should be run.

The pace set by Imposing Lass (2), Perizada (4) & All Over Bosanova (5) will allow Sugar Bella (9) to sit comfortably backward of midfield and set her up to storm over her rivals down the stretch, with that speed suiting hermore than the key danger Slow Burn (7) who will be more prominent.  

Perizada (4) is another runner who is firing and she is one of the few with runs under her belt this campaign so should go on all your exotics tickets.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

The ‘Cock would be clearing the front leg on Sugar Bella (9) were she not coming in fresh but will check his shot slightly and settle for a medium size Best of the Best bet instead.

Race 9 – 4.40pm

The ‘Cock likes this 2000m Listed Race as a betting proposition to round out the day in Sydney, with his confidence on top rater Emperors Way (12) set to skyrocket if the track improves to a soft 5 or better.

This isn’t a matter of if you back Emperors Way (12), but simply how much you have on him, with his recent form coming into this race for three consecutive wins clearly superior to what the rest of this field have been producing. If conditions hold at a Soft 6 or worse keep your stake conservative, but should things improve to a Soft 5 or better then you can be throwing the shiny chips in.

He will sit forward along with Imperial Aviator (11), Show A Star (5) & Singing (3) and there isn’t a back-marker jumping off the page other than the roughie The Getaway (13), who will sit near enough to last throughout but is far from useless and provides massive value at $41 in the early markets.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Keep a close eye on the Randwick track throughout the day before making a definitive call on how you approach Emperors Way (12) but don’t miss out, with The Getaway (13) the one to back with your loose change.

Doomben

Assessments done for an expected HEAVY track.

Note: If the track gets to a Heavy 9 or 10, only some exceptional prospects could get The ‘Cock involved in anything on this card.   

Race 6 – 3.27pm

Suggan Buggan (3) is an immediate exception to The ‘Cock’s no bet on the Heavy 9 or 10 rule, as a runner who is going to handle these conditions better than virtually all others and will prove over the odds at any price above $2.20.

The early pace will be set by Let’s Party Marty (9), Call The Captain (1) & Suilven (6), but The ‘Cock anticipates they are more likely to fall away spectacularly in the final 200m than go on with it.

All runners outside of Suggan Buggan (3) and the odds-on favourite Let’s Party Marty (9) handle the wet like the centre square at Moorabbin circa 1984, with The ‘Cock leaning towards Suggan Buggan (3) given she should be better suited by the tempo and the value differential between the two at $4 v $2.05.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

With as much as $4 on offer for Suggan Buggan (3) there is no missing out regardless of the conditions

Race 7 – 4.12pm

The ‘Cock is curbing his enthusiasm again here and will be especially guarded if the track is past a Heavy 9, but Yarrapower (10) ticks plenty of boxes on paper with Jeff Lloyd in the saddle and should prove worth your salt.

There will be a frantic battle for position early given all the pace that is drawn out wide, and with Siliqua (12) & Brave Dazzler (15) virtually the only two runners who will be happy sitting in midfield or worse you can expect Lloyd’s wizardry to prove invaluable as other hoops scramble.

Behind Yarrapower (10), Colinelle (1), Just Orm (2) & Lipsync (14) are the next best trio for your quaddie ticket.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Look no further than a medium-sized investment on Yarrapower (10) at Best of the Best prices.  

Race 8 – 4.50pm

The key runners in this all have a tendency to mix form dangerously, and with the expected conditions as they are The ‘Cock’s interest in this one has been dulled considerably, with Criquette (6) rating very narrowly ahead of Well Sighted (4), Inspired Estelle (7) & Tversky (10) at the pointy end of proceedings.

Criquette (6) was good on her return when running second at this track and trip last time out and comes in with a perfect second-up record, so expect another strong performance today.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Keep your cards close to your chest, but a small stake on Criquette (6) at Best of the Best prices is your avenue to get involved if determined.

Race 9 – 5.30pm

Take your form-guide up to the local and stick it to the dart board, this one is a raffle.

Not a great deal of pace coming from anywhere as most of these runners are traditionally quite happy to let someone else do the hard work early, with Diamonds Ace (1) the likely leader out of pole position as Awake The Stars (8) crosses over to join him from the outside.

Play it very wide in this final leg of the quaddie with all of Arazona (14), Queen Of Heights (12), Sweet Adaline (17), Awake The Stars (8), Diamonds Are (1), Call The Captain (16), Bred For Luck (5) & Polemic (9) going on the ticket as a minimum.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Don’t interrupt counting the day’s winnings to get anything on here, just cash the quaddie half an hour later ahead of a big night on the circuit.

Morphettville

Assessments done for an expected GOOD track.

Race 6 – 3.11pm

Flemington is Australia’s home of racing, The Valley the home of night racing, but what about Morphettville? Current indications suggest that the club executive is pushing to be ‘the home of disgraceful Saturday metro quaddies’.

Suffice to say this one is lacking exposed form with just nine career starts between all twelve runners, and The ‘Cock expects that one of the debutants could easily be winning this. The market is going to be your best guide.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

There is G1 racing jumping all over the place in the hour either side of this race, so as difficult as it may be to keep Adelaide from your conscious, try and focus your efforts on something decent and stay out of this.

Race 7 – 3.50pm

A much better offering in Adelaide where The ‘Cock will be happy to dip into his vault and have some bullion on Lord Topper (4), who will enjoy a cushy lead and looks a great chance to go all the way.

Expect that he will be largely unchallenged barring an outsider being ridden upside down, with Battlecamp (5) & Roselli Sting (6) rating next best and Victory Downs (1) also one to respect first-up.  

Recommended Betting Strategy:

A medium stake on Lord Topper (4) at Best of the Best prices.

Race 8 – 2.25pm

Another race that is below par for what should be expected of a Saturday metro quaddie leg and The ‘Cock anticipates a wild viewing experience, with a blistering pace to be set by all of Captain Crackerjak (13), Anamesis (10), Mister Flyn (16), Moon Spinner (4) & On Appro (15) who will look to lead.

The DK Weir runner Invincible Amici (12) has the best exposed form of any runner in the race and could slide under the radar coming over from country Victoria, with the current $5+ odds enough to entice a small investment.

Moon Spinner (4) has certainly been rated highly in the market but it is not without reason, with The ‘Cock considering him to be the main danger following a solid win on debut here three weeks ago, as Miss Labelle (9) & Phelps Glory (2) rate next best.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

A poor betting race overall but Invincible Amici (12) is doing enough to stand out and justify a small stake at best of the best prices.

Race 9 – 5.10pm

They might as well just hold a match race between Iconoclasm (9) & Missile Boom (2) to end the day here because The ‘Cock can’t see anything else coming close to his two top raters.

It will be a hot tempo that wouldn’t necessarily suit Iconoclasm (9) if there was more quality in the race, but as it stands he is every chance of replicating the eight-length last start maiden win at Ararat which took dominant toanother level. Has had a quick freshen up and should be well placed to back it up today, though The ‘Cock would want $3.50 before buying in.

The fellow Victorian traveller Missile Boom (2) has previously produced ratings that measure up to the favourite and he is a genuine chance of causing the upset, with the pace likely to set him up for a late charge which plays into his hands more than Iconoclasm (9) who may be starting to feel the pinch.  

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Iconoclasm (9) is the most likely winner of the race but too short for The ‘Cock at $1.90, so a small stake on the $8 for Missile Boom (2) represents far better value for money.

Ascot

Assessments done for an expected GOOD track.

Race 5 – 5.55pm

The best value bet of the day anywhere in the country comes out in the wild, wild west here courtesy of Bet365, who have put My Greek Boy (4) out at ridiculous overs of $13 which is so exorbitant it can only be explained by a work experience kid getting on the trading floor and hitting the wrong buttons.

He will help set up a hot tempo by charging forward alongside Fathnoxious (8) & Kaapander (9) to make the early running, and while all the money is going towards Western Temple (3) The ‘Cock thinks My Greek Boy (4) can topple the favourite by getting forward and pinching a big break that will make him hard to reign in.

Recommended Betting Strategy: If you’re looking for one double-figure shot for the day, make it My Greek Boy (4) who simply can’t be missed at the odds.

Race 6 – 6.30pm

The ‘Cock could go breaking down how he expects this one will pan out and dissecting who might feature on the podium, but this race can be summarised in one four letter word that will save us all time.

Pass.

Bet that was tamer than you expected.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

As above. Zero interest in touching this.

Race 7 – 7.05pm

This will be a real scamper over the 1000m but it’s another race to be steering well clear of, with nothing separating The ‘Cock’s top five and hardly any margin to the next five.

Far too much uncertainty in this one to be going anywhere near it, and at 7pm The ‘Cock expects the champagne will already be flowing at Peacock HQ.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Don’t go risking any of the days earlier winnings here.

Race 8 – 7.40pm

Hold off popping another cork for just a moment because this race will actually be one to bother watching, with a stack of pace in it coming from Akiki (5), De Andes (2), Hoboken (7), Dynamite Dream (14) & Cranky Dancer (3).

The ‘Cock has Dynamite Dream (14) marked on top but it is one of the likely pace-setters Akiko (5) who is really jumping off the page, rating closely behind her but providing some real standout value at the $16 quote.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

This is still ultimately an average race but given the strong value on offer for Akiko (5) The ‘Cock can make a case for having a small stake on her to bolster your bar tab for the night.