Ballarat

Race 7 – 4:00pm

Milwaukee (14) rates narrowly on top and heads Black Sheep (2), Dan Zephyr (1), Dusty Jack (17), The New Boy (13) & Urban Ruler (7) with at least another 4 horses that could win.

This looks a near impossible race to start the quaddy, with up to 10 horses that have strong winning claims in this capacity field. Milwaukee produces extremely consistent ratings and his recent performances look strong. Career peak came 3rd up so profiles well here and The ‘Cock has him on top, but couldn’t be confident betting given the number of other winning chances in the race.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock suggests playing this race very wide & would only be interested in backing Milwaukee if $7+ were available.

Top selection Milwaukee was scratched, leaving this already bad betting race in an even worse position. Winner New Universe wasn’t noted in the numbers.

Race 8 – 4:40pm

Grey Lion (5) rates 1 length on top, but with several dangers who could all win if he’s off his game including Mr Garcia (7), Antonio Giuseppe (1), Sonntag (9) & De Little Engine (2).

Grey Lion produced a near career best rating run last start in the Queen Elizabeth when a narrow 2nd & that formline looks the clear standout in this race. Trained locally and should get a great run in transit from barrier 3, likely settling close to the pace.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock rates Grey Lion on top and whilst he respects Mr Garcia & Antonio Giuseppe as the biggest dangers, they’re both under the odds, which has created great value on Grey Lion who he suggests backing to win at $4+.

Grey Lion went from a $7 chance to a $3.50 favourite by the time they jumped, so The ‘Cock was obviously spot on in his assessment of its winning chances but unfortunately it could only manage a 3rd placing.

Race 9 – 5:20pm

Modern Wonder (5) & Miss Wonderland (8) rate equal on top, with Divine Quality (7) the biggest danger. The ‘Cock is happy to discount and others and will be betting around the favourite Debonairly (11) at its current $4.20 quote.

Modern Wonder has won 2 from 3 this prep, including a career peak performance last start. Has been inconsistent in the past, but seems to be racing in good form and if it can hold it’s most recent rating it will be hard to beat.

Miss Wonderland comes into the race 1st up, but it was a winner last campaign off a break in a performance that The ‘Cock has assessed strong enough to win this race. If she’s wound up, she’ll be hard to beat & The ‘Cock has these 2 clearly on top.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock recommends having a proportional stake on both Modern Wonder & Miss Wonderland both to win. Include Divine Quality in any exotic bets.

Modern Wonder finished just out of the placings, with 2nd selection Divine Quality finishing behind the runner The ‘Cock thought was unders in Debonairly.

Race 10 – 5:55pm

A wide open race to finish the day at Ballarat, but The ‘Cock has Falcool (13) rated as the horse to beat. Chamois Road (2) & Toy Boy (14) rate as the biggest dangers, with Oberland (14) the next best.

Falcool was a strong winner 1st up with a performance that rates 1 length ahead of what The ‘Cock expects this field can produce & though he can dip 2nd up, the 4 weeks between runs should see him fresh for this hitout. Looks great value at $5+.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be backing Falcool to win at $5+, but is wary that after that it’s a very open race, so suggests going wide in the quaddy & including all listed runners.

Falcool wad the best backed runner in this wide open race, but could only manage a 3rd placing.

Rosehill

Race 6 – 3:40pm

Zumbelina (2) rates on top, with not much splitting the next 5 rated runners which include Just Dreaming (6), Star Fortune (12), Wayanka (9), Time To Torque (10) & Grunderzeit (3) who are all capable of an upset.

This is a competitive race, but there’s enough to suggest Zumbelina is clearly the horse to beat after her strong win last start which followed 3 other good runs this campaign. The strongest win of her career came at the Rosehill 1400m & there doesn’t look to be a runner that can match her if she improves.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock is keen to back Zumbelina to win at any price above $3, but is wary that she’ll need to be on her game with all those listed capable of an upset. Star Fortune produced a really strong rating run at Cranbourne last start & The ‘Cock think she looks big overs at $20+ in early markets, so would be having a small win bet on her too.

The ‘Cock failed to find $31 winner Invinzabeel, with Zumbellina failing to finish in the placings.

Race 7 – 4:20pm

Miss Dubois (17) rates marginally on top, with Bronzed Venom (12), Allzin (4) & Madame De Ban (18) the next best. Zamex (13), Morendi (1), Charlie Royale (7) & Overdue (5) make up the next bunch.

The Country Classic for provincial trainers only has resulted in an incredibly even race, with at least 8 winning chances and not much value on the top rated runners.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock has no interest at all in getting involved in this race & suggests playing it very wide in the quaddy. A few of the runners mentioned are long double figure odds, so may be worth some small bets if you were keen to back anything to win.

The ‘Cocks top rated runner Miss Dubois won at $4.80, with two $31 chances filling the placings.

Race 8 – 5:00pm

Bon Amis (9) rates just over a length on top, with In Times of War (5) the biggest danger. Test The World (6) & Ozark (2) are the next best but will struggle to beat the top 2, with Don’t Tease Me (12) a good rough chance.

The ‘Cock finds it hard to pot the credentials of Bon Amis, who comes into this race with a perfect 4/4 record & ratings in his past 2 which are clearly better than those he meets today.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Bon Amis at $2.50 or better is the only runner to back here & The ‘Cock suggests leaving Ozark & Test The World out of your quaddy numbers to boost your percentages.

Bon Amis started far shorter than the $2.80 at time of writing and beat all runners home except for the $26 roughie Don’t Tease Me which The ‘Cock suggested keeping an eye on.

Race 9 – 5:40pm

Istria (6) rates just ahead of Dreamforce (4) & Our Belisa (2) with Darts Away (13) just behind them.

This is a difficult race to assess, with Istria & Our Belisa both producing big career peaks at their last start, but similarly they both had all the favours in the run and The ‘Cock can’t help but think those efforts may be slightly overrated. Darts Away is 4th up here and has rated well in his recent runs against what The ‘Cock assesses as stronger races than this, so does look the value play.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• With the top 3 all around the $4 mark, there’s no great value to be found and though The ‘Cock expects the winner to likely come from those 3, he can make a case for having a small bet on Darts Away at $20+

The top 3 finished as The ‘Cock expected, he just got the order wrong. Dreamforce beat Our Belisa & Istria.

Doomben

Race 6 – 3:48pm

Karakabeel (4), Bronzed Venom (6) & Toni May (7) rate as The ‘Cock’s top 3, with a small gap to several others in what looks to be a difficult betting race.

Karakabeel rates marginally on top for The ‘Cock after 2 narrow defeats, but his last run rating was a career peak. He’s well suited at this distance and The ‘Cock has confidence that he’ll produce at a level which not many others in this race could match.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock doesn’t have much splitting the top 3 & whilst Karakabeel rates on top, he’s been assessed as a $5 chance so there is only marginal value in current markets. The ‘Cock suggests a half stake on Karakabeel at $5+, but would be including the other 2 in any exotics.

This proved to be the difficult betting race The ‘Cock predicted, with Karakabeel finishing 3rd and the winner Kirini saluting at double figure odds.

Race 7 – 4:28pm

A difficult race to assess, with not much splitting the entire field & multiple runners resuming off breaks. Sheiswhatsheis (2) rates marginally ahead of Our Beebee, Ice Frost, Inspired Estelle & Sylpheed who are all capable of winning.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock wouldn’t have any confidence backing any of these listed runners to win, with far too many unknowns in the race. Play this race wide in the quaddy.

Another race which proved to be the lottery predicted, with the outsider of the field winning at $41.

Race 8 – 5:08pm

Crack Me Up (9) rates clearly on top for The ‘Cock with Torgersen (12) & Brazen Moss (14) the best of the others in a high confidence betting race.

Crack Me Up produced a very high rating run 1st up and with his career peak coming over a mile, he’ll almost certainly improve 2nd up with the step to 1350. Looks incredibly well suited & The ‘Cock rates him almost 2 lengths clear of anything else.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be putting the shoulders back with Crack Me Up and backing him to win at $2.20+ in what looks the best bet of the day in Brisbane.

The ‘Cock’s best of the day in Doomben did exactly as he expected and won well paying $2.90.

Race 9 – 5:48pm

Manaya (8) & Ringo’s A Rockstar (4) rate as the clear top 2, with Drumbeat’s Choice (2) & Jomar’s Element (13) ones to watch at double figure odds. Betting around the favourite Amanaat (1) at the $4 whose recent 4 straight wins have caused the market to overestimate his chances.

Manaya ran to a career peak last start, but her profile suggests she should improve again on that run which puts her as the horse to beat. Rates around a $3.5 chance for The ‘Cock, so is well found in the current market.

Ringo’s A Rockstar was great 1st up, but produced a poor effort when well supported in the betting last start. Watch betting markets for a guide, because if he can bounce back from that run he’s capable of producing a winning performance.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock isn’t overly keen to get involved in this race, with top rater Manaya under the odds at less than $3. Can make a case for a small bet on Ringo’s A Rockstar at $7+, but would want to wait for a guide from betting markets to ensure he’s there to win.

The ‘Cock got this one wrong, with Amanaat winning at $4.40.

Morphettville

Race 5 – 4:11pm

Infinity Queen (6), Set To Sparkle (7), Miss Identified (1) & Embecee Lil (5) rate on top in what looks to be a poor betting race.

Infinity Queen produced a big rating last start, but The ‘Cock is wary that came on a heavy track so it’s hard to be confident that she can hold that form here. The other 3 are all capable of winning, but are well found in the market.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• This is a race that The ‘Cock would avoid having any win bets in & would suggest playing it wide in the quaddy, including all 4 listed runners.

The ‘Cock’s top 2 finished as predicted, with Set To Sparkle beating Infinity Queen and both runners well found at around the $3.50 mark.

Race 6 – 4:51pm

Another poor betting race, with not much splitting All Bar Two (2), Nicoise (1), Eclair Fiesta (8) & House of Wax (9). Cayman Nights (4) is a runner to watch at double figure odds who could peak 2nd up.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Again The ‘Cock would be avoiding any win bets in this race, with all listed runners capable of winning and fairly well assessed in the market currently. Nicoise at $10+ provides the greatest value & The ‘Cock could make a case for having a small bet at anything over those odds.

The ‘Cock almost got this one right with his outsider to keep an eye on Cayman Nights showing the 2nd up peak he predicted, finishing 2nd as a $21 chance.

Race 7 – 5:31pm

Imperator Augustus (6) looks to be a clear standout in this race, with Federal Court (5) rated the next best but 2 lengths behind it.

Imperator Augustus finished 2nd last start, but produced a performance which would beat this field by at least 1 length & The ‘Cock believes that he’ll improve again through that run.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock is putting the feathers out here, backing Imperator Augustus at $2+ & taking him one out in the quaddy.

Imperator Augustus failed to fire and finished out of the placings in a tough result for the ‘Cock. Federal Court fared better, but could only manage a 2nd placing.

Race 8 – 6:08pm

Bwuva (8) & Via Balciano (6) rate as The ‘Cocks top 2 chances, with Ballinaclash (3) & Gogo Grace (5) both capable of upsetting should they run to their best. The favourite Bakers Dozen (4) could win, but is well under the odds at $3.50 given her poor 1st up effort.

Bwuva is a horse that gets better with racing and comes into this race 4th up after a last start 3rd in an effort which measures up really well against this field. It’s an even race, with any of those listed capable of winning, but he looks great value at $10+.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock would be including all listed runners in exotics, but Bwuva looks the value bet of the race, with The ‘Cock assessing his chances as being at least half his current quote.

The ‘Cock was right to pot Baker’s Dozen, who was a big drifter and finished out of the placings, but he failed to find the winner Trupt.

Ascot

Race 6 – 6:35pm

The ‘Cock has assessed this as a race in two, with Royal Star (8) rating marginally ahead of Trap For Fools (7) and they look streets ahead of the others.

Though The ‘Cock has very little splitting them, he does prefer the credentials of Royal Star who is the more progressive runner of the two, with only 8 career starts to her name. Has produced 3 high rating runs over shorter distance so far this prep but now steps up to the 2200m which really suits. Was a sharp improver last prep when jumping up in distance & The ‘Cock expects similar things here.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• With both runners opening around the $3.5 quote, The ‘Cock will be backing Royal Star to win at any odds greater than $2.80 but also suggests taking both in any exotics.

With Royal Star scratched, Trap For Fools became the clear top rated runner and won well at $4.

Race 7 – 7:15pm

Money Maher (3) rates on top, with Salubrious (4) & Perfect Jewel (14) just behind. Art Series (13), Gaulois (5) & Achernar Star (1) rate the best of the others and there’s less than 2 lengths splitting those runners.

Very strong race as you’d expect from a G2 Guineas, but Money Maher looks the runner to beat after a very strong showing when winning the 1400m listed lead up event by 2 lengths. It was a big career peak, but as a lightly raced 3yo he’s coming into form at the right time for this feature. Salubrious is a runner to watch at double figure odds & whilst he’s some concern at the mile, his last start run at G2 WFA class is a very strong formline for this.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Whilst Money Maher is the runner to beat, The ‘Cock rates him a $4 chance so he’s only marginal value in current markets and this is a race to play wide in, with all runners listed more than capable of winning.

Money Maher finished out of the placings, but the top 3 Perfect Jewel, Achernar Star and Art Series were all noted in The ‘Cock’s selections.

Race 8 – 8:00pm

Tom Melbourne (3) rates clearly on top here, with Supply And Demand (4), Great Shot (6), All Our Roads (8) & Scales Of Justice (2) the next best in a very even race outside of the top selection.

Tom Melbourne would have put plenty of punters off after producing a string of 2nd placings, but The ‘Cock leaves emotion out when doing his form analysis and notes that his performances relative to the weight he carries here rate far above what anything in this field has been producing. He has the benefit of losing the G Boss handbrake and should get the perfect run with D Oliver aboard from barrier 1. If he produces a run anywhere near his last start effort in the Cantala, he’ll win this race comfortably.

Great Shot is a local runner who could surprise a few at big odds whose form this campaign has been outstanding including a last start 2nd when beating home Scales of Justice. He looks the likely leader with the light weight and looks a great bet at $26+.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• The ‘Cock recommends having a big bet on Tom Melbourne who he rates as a clear $3.50 chance, but would also have a proportional stake on Great Shot each way who will be right in the finish and looks big overs with $31+ currently available.

Top pick Tom Melbourne finished 3rd, but The ‘Cock’s incredible run in Spring G1’s continued here, with $34 chance Great Shot providing a huge result for Peacock followers.

Race 9 – 8:40pm

The ‘Cock has Friaresque (10) marginally ahead of Mosseratti (12), with a small gap to First Affair (4) & Pushin Shapes (2) as the next best in a competitive race to finish the day.

Friaresque produced a really strong 1st up effort over an unsuitable 1200m which suggests he’s ready to have a career best preparation and the step to 1600m 2nd up is a big advantage. Has handled a big distance jump 2nd up before, so that doesn’t concern The ‘Cock and he has scope to improve to a level that this field can’t match. It is a competitive race however and he will need to improve on the run to win, so there’s no value in the current $3 quote.

Mosseratti has produced 2 strong runs this prep and showed nice improvement last time out over 1500m, despite the narrow loss as a short priced favourite. The ‘Cock expects further improvement again here over the mile & his peak ratings are good enough to win this race. The ‘Cock sees him as the biggest danger to the top selection and he looks far better value.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Though The ‘Cock has Friaresque rated on top, he sees Mosseratti as a genuine winning chance and has his rated price assessed closer to $4, so he’s a great bet at the current $8. Include both runners in any exotics, with the others listed also not to be dismissed.

Mosseratti beat all runners home, except for the $81 chance Push To Pass which provided the knockout blow to finish the quaddy.