Flemington

Race 1 – 12:15pm

Linguist (14) is The ‘Cock’s clear standout in this field, ahead of Groovin (3), Sworn Evidence (16) & So Splendid (10) as next best.

The ‘Cock was looking forward to cashing in on Linguist at big odds on Cup Day had she started there, but connections have opted for this one and who can blame them, as she could hardly be better suited and opting for this route is an encouraging sign for punters. She only needs to replicate the level of performance that saw her win by five lengths at Ballarat last start, and fourth up today The ‘Cock expects that as a minimum, given we should really see her go even better again if her history is anything to go by. Rates close to a $2.90 top chance for The ‘Cock and a great bet at $5.50.

Recommended Bet:

• Linguist (14) – Rated: $2.90, Current Price: $5.50

As expected, Linguist absolutely bolted in to kick off the day. She had drifted in the betting slightly pre-race but The ‘Cock was never in doubt that she would win this, leading from start to finish and kicking away impressively at the clocktower to score at $7.

Race 2 – 12:55pm

Ebediyin (9) is on top of an extremely tight race, with The ‘Cock rating Mr Garcia (3), Captain Duffy (6), War Legend (10), Von Tunzelman (2), Hogmanay (5) & Souchez (4) all capable of winning on their day.

Ebediyin is the standout runner here, with the step up to 1800m and Damien Lane jumping on board a tonic that can see him go one better than the last start second at Moonee Valley. He will have improved on his last start run here over the mile which closed his last campaign, a race where Cup Day winner Dollar For Dollar ran fourth.

Andreas Wohler has brought Mr Garcia over from Germany and The ‘Cock is confident it wasn’t for a holiday. Obviously tough to assess in his first Australian start but monitor the market for a reading, with The ‘Cock expecting him to challenge.

Captain Duffy has come to Melbourne for the first time since last year’s Derby, and while he was a long way back that day it’s safe to say the company was a touch sharper than this. Currently close to 20/1 in the market and one to watch.

Ebediyin ran unplaced but The ‘Cock was correct in suggesting Andreas Wohler hadn’t brough Mr Garcia here for a holiday, with him running out a strong winner at $4.60.

Race 3 – 1:35pm

Urban Ruler (5), Silvera (6), Valac (12), Tribal Wisdom (8), Chalk (10), Harbour Grey (9), Time To Torque (3), Pay Up Bro (7).

This race is a great spectacle each year, but unfortunately, there are too many grey areas for The ‘Cock to be investing confidently in it today.

Urban Ruler rates on top after a strong win at Geelong last start on return and while his second up record isn’t as strong, his career peak rating came at this track and trip back in June which is higher than anything his rivals have ever been able to produce and he is the $4 top chance for The ‘Cock.

Harbour Grey is a rough chance to monitor after producing a strong rating on resumption at Geelong last start, and who is almost certain to improve second up with this step up in distance. Even that might still leave him short of the top raters but The ‘Cock expects it will at least put him at the top end of proceedings.

The money came for The ‘Cock’s rough chance Harbour Grey, who was $18 into $13 at the jump. He looked the winner until all but the final stride, with Tribal Wisdom coming from the clouds to top Harbour Grey on the line in a race that was as unpredictable as The ‘Cock predicted, with the trifecta paying nearly $3,000.

Race 4 – 2:15pm

Boss Coni (19), Barry The Baptist (10), Pot Black (6), Emoji (3) & Pria Eclipse (16) are The ‘Cock’s top five in a wide open affair, where he is looking to some big value roughies given the lack of confidence in the favourites.

Pot Black comes out of the same last start race at Hamilton as a few of these, where he hit the line like a freight train to finish in between Barry The Baptist and Boss Coni on the podium, and The ‘Cock likes the rate of improvement he has shown since he moved down from the NT. His previous best rating back in the red centre would win this, and those massive odds of $51 are overs in a tough race.

Emoji is one who is closer to the top end of the market following a last start third in Geelong and his recent form has been consistent without the wins to show for it. Effectively not stepping up in trip at all after being stuck five wide throughout the entire run over 1500m last time, and while he does need to improve, The ‘Cock rates him a $6 chance.

The ‘Cock took a set against the short priced favourite Nights Watch and wasn’t surprised to see him beaten, but failed to find the winner with his top selections. Emoji was the best of The ‘Cock’s roughies in fourth, with the others coming in midfield.

Race 5 – 2:55pm

Supply And Demand (2), Hellova Street (5), Echo Effect (9), & Ulmann (1) are The ‘Cock’s top chances in a very hard betting race.

No harm in letting this one through to the keeper, with very little splitting these top raters in either form or value.

Supply And Demand was strong for second at Randwick on his return last start, and while traditionally he is not as good second up The ‘Cock expects him to be on the podium provided he handles his first trip to Flemington, rating a $4.50 chance.

Hellova Street won over this course on Australia Cup Day with a rating which would be good enough to win today if he can replicate it. Comes in third up today after minor placings at Caulfield and then on Manikato night at The Valley and he can definitely improve enough to win here.

No surprises in this one with Hellova Street & Supply And Demand the short price quinella. Hellova Street went from start to finish and never looked like being passed, though Supply And Demand produced a tremedously tough run for second after looking out of juice at the top of the straight.

Race 6 – 3:35pm

Glynn Schofield should only have to hold onto Ball Of Muscle (2) to get the chocolates here, with him rating a mile clear of the next best Shaf (4) & Mile High (7).

Ball Of Muscle will relish the drop in class that he finds here, having been competitive at the highest level for the better part of the last two years. Ran second to Redzel at the end of September and has had a month to freshen up after running a length behind In Her Time in the Sydney Stakes. With no competition of that ilk against him today, The ‘Cock rates him an odds-on top chance.

Recommended Bet:

• Ball Of Muscle (2) – Rated: $2, Current Price: $2.40

And hold on he did. Ball Of Muscle never looked troubled and scored easily at $2.60 as expected.

Race 7 – 4:15pm

Sambro (2) & Irish Vega (6) are the leaders, with Sky Boy (5) marginally off them as next best and ahead of All Too Huiying (3).

This race isn’t as clear-cut as the first leg given the mass of lightly raced runners who could be capable of significant improvement, but The ‘Cock is still most confident of his top rating duo who both back up from Saturday.

Sambro produced a high rating run for second in his first ever Flemington start on the weekend, finishing only a neck behind Levendi in the Carbine Club. He has got the quick backup and a step up from the mile to contend with here but The ‘Cock has him marked a $3.30 top chance and deems him capable of handling it.

Irish Vega was only narrowly behind Sambro and Levendi in just his third career start and first at Flemington on Saturday, with The ‘Cock having very few concerns about him today based on the way he hit the line on Saturday. That suggested that 1800m will be perfect and he rates a $3.50 chance.

Of the others, Sky Boy comes down from Sydney for the first time with two wins to show for his first four starts north of the Murray, and while The ‘Cock has him marked slightly behind the others it would not shock him to see this Anthony Cummings runner salute in the famous Saintly colours.

Sambro was a highly fancied favourite and into $2.70 by the jump but missed the start horrifically and never recovered. The ‘Cock noted All Too Huiying as one of his top selections, which led all the way to win at $31.

Race 8 – 5:00pm

Aloisia (1) is unsurprisingly The ‘Cock’s clear top runner in the Oaks and The ‘Cock can’t make a case for anything to come near her, with this looking like a genuine six-length job if Nolen decides to let her go.

Her win in the Thousand Guineas four weeks ago and then again last start in the Moonee Valley Vase have been flawless, with The ‘Cock fully expecting her to take it to another level again today with an Oaks run that will have everyone sitting up and taking notice. The $1.50 top quote is certainly better than bank interest.

The ‘Cock got this one wrong, with Aloisia failing to produce anywhere near her best effort. The betting drift was alarming and issues pre race certainly didn’t help her chances.

Race 9 – 5:45pm

Demerara (5), Smart Coupe (7) & Debonairly (1) are the top three, with I Am Excited (6), Blondie (2), Shudabeen (9) & Jorda (4) the next best for those going wider.

Demerara was a certainty beat on Cox Plate Day, running third as a $1.85 chance behind Tarcoola Spirit who disappointed on Cup Day, and Blondie who she comes up against again here. With three wins from her four career starts, The ‘Cock thinks she will be well suited down the straight and rates her a $3 top chance

Smart Coupe is lightly raced but showed improvement second up in her debut campaign, and after an honest return for third at The Valley The ‘Cock expects she can go better again here for D Lane. Monitor track condition throughout the day given her insider draw.

Debonairly is here for Gai, and as she’s shown this week that she doesn’t bring them south just to give them another run. Has a 100% strike rate first up so no concerns in that regard and she rates $7.

Blondie will undoubtedly be the omen bet of the day, so while The ‘Cock considers her a winning chance be wary of sub $10 odds that may come after a deluge of champagne-soaked money changes hands twenty minutes before the race.

Demerara ran unplaced, with 2nd selection Smart Coupe finishing 3rd as an $11 chance. The ‘Cock noted Jorda as a danger who won well at $19.