Flemington

Race 1 – 11:00am

Just the two runners in the field with any competitive racing experience in Qafila (2) & Setsuna (1), who registered their maiden wins on Guineas and Cox Plate Day respectively. At 11am, The ‘Cock won’t be moving off the upper deck of the Peacock superyacht to try and get a bet on & suggests you let this one go as well.

A no bet race given the absence of any form of all bar two runners, but the in form Waterhouse and Baster combination joined to salute once again, with Setsuna replicating her Cox Plate Day win and showing some real class down the straight.

Race 2 – 11:40am

Invincibella (3) is the clear top-rated chance, ahead of Linguist (13), Tahanee (5) & Pygmy (4) as the four runners The ‘Cock considers capable of winning on previous form.

Invincibella came down to Melbourne for the third time last start and produced a strong run for third over 1600m in the Tesio at Moonee Valley, and The ‘Cock expects her to be better again for that run here. Rated well enough last start to win this one if she can replicate it, but The ‘Cock sees good scope for her to go even better than that fourth up and rates her a $3 chance.

Linguist produced a career peak rating in her last start win at Ballarat when third up at the mile, and The ‘Cock can’t see her regressing on that at all here. Her only previous start here came down the straight on debut where she struggled, but she will be much better with the added experience and around the bend, rating $4.80 for The ‘Cock and well over the odds at $15. Given that huge value differential between the top two, she is The ‘Cock’s best bet of the race.

Tahanee’s last start in the Tesio was well off the mark for what will be required to win this, but The ‘Cock expects some natural improvement third up that will push her back towards her best form that she showed in Dubai earlier in the year. Still rate her behind the others, but have to expect her to be at the pointy end of proceedings.

Recommended Bet:

• Linguist (13) – Rated- $4.80, Current Price- $15

Tahanee got back to that Dubai form The ‘Cock mentioned and was a strong winner from at $7.70. The top-rated chance Invicibella was a $2.20 favourite and eventually ran a big race, but after missing the kick she left herself far too much to do.

Race 3 – 12:15pm

Dollar For Dollar (4) & Fox Hall (5) sit on top, with Milwaukee (9), Wayanka (10) & Ozi Choice (7) the next best trio.

Dollar For Dollar comes across from Adelaide after consecutive wins at Morphettville to start this campaign, and having improved third up previously, The ‘Cock is confident he can produce a winning run here. Rates a $4 chance and is currently quoted at twice that price.

Fox Hall has been producing consistently strong ratings of late and just has to hold the form from his run at Moonee Valley last Friday to be in the finish. Was a certainty beaten that night but should appreciate the extra space at Flemington and is definitely capable of bouncing back here.

Milwaukee is always strong over 1400m and The ‘Cock saw enough in the first up run at Sale over 1200m to suggest that is going to be the case again today, rating as an $8 chance.

The favourite New Universe is one The ‘Cock has concerns about in his first Victorian start and second up, after he promised the world and delivered an atlas on return at Rosehill a fortnight ago. He has never shown significant improvement second up in his short career so far and while it’s not out of the question, The ‘Cock can’t be having $4.40 under those circumstances.

The ‘Cock’s top rated runner Dollar For Dollar was well supported and came in from $8 to $5.50 on raceday, before duly saluting to make it three on the bounce.

Race 4 – 12:50pm

Yogi (5) is on top of a very tough race, with Granddukeoftuscany (3), The Willybe (9), Sin To Win (6) & Swacadelic (4) next in line.

The huge field here makes for a low confidence betting race which epitomises why Cup Day can be a dangerous punting day for those who don’t have The ‘Cock on their side, as it’s very easy to get lost in the mediocrity of much of the racing given the hype of the day.

The ‘Cock has identified Yogi as the one most likely here, with him consistently producing to the level The ‘Cock expects to win this, and he will be better suited here compared to his last start run in the Bart Cummings. He was outclassed that day but should find this considerably easier after a months freshen up which has served him well in the past. Rated at $3.50 by The ‘Cock so the $6 top quote is a strong result.

Granddukeoftuscany also comes out of the Bart Cummings, where his run for second was a very strong sign ahead of this one, with The ‘Cock fully expecting he should at least match that performance. Also has a month between runs, which The ‘Cock believes that break favours Yogi more in comparison, but still expect him to be in the finish as a $4 rated chance.

Swacadelic’s run at Mornington two starts back was at the level that The ‘Cock expects will be needed to win here, and despite regressing last time out at Caulfield you can bank on him running the trip – which is not something that can be said for much of the field. Currently over the odds as one The ‘Cock currently rates at $15.

Once The ‘Cock’s top selection was scratched this race really went from low confidence to no confidence, with the winner Fanatic coming from outside The ‘Cock’s selections at 15/1.

Race 5 – 1:25pm

Piracy (5) goes in on top, rating narrowly ahead of Property (1), Paret (9) & Madeenaty (4) in what is another tough race.

It’s hard to match the Melbourne and Sydney form that is littered throughout this one, but The ‘Cock has got Piracy marked on top following his strong last start effort at Randwick, which was a run that rated well enough to win this if replicated today. McEvoy and Cummings combine and The ‘Cock rates him a $4 leading chance.

Property ran fourth in the Caulfield Sprint last start when first up, in what was an extremely hot race, and his previous second up record indicates further improvement can be made today. Rates $6 for The ‘Cock so is currently unders at $4.60.

Paret is another to monitor as despite only having two starts under his belt, the last run for third at Rosehill showed signs of being able to meet the level required in this. Has had six weeks between starts so The ‘Cock won’t be bounding into the $5.50, but keep an eye on the market for any support for him.

The top rated runner Piracy was never given a chance by McEvoy and spent the final 600m stuck on the rail behind a wall of horses. It was a race that didn’t go to script, with Prezado taking the chocolates at 20/1.

Race 6 – 2:00pm

Our Crown Mistress (2) & Tarcoola Spirit (8) are the two The ‘Cock deems most capable, ahead of Warranty (6), Counterplay (3) & River Jewel (4) next.

Our Crown Mistress will look to replicate the front-running effort of Cismontane on Saturday as Gai and Stephen Baster combine once again, and The ‘Cock expects she is every chance of doing so, coming in with three wins on the bounce and rating $3.50. Would be hesitant to take less than that given the tight top five but certainly rates highly.

Tarcoola Spirit produced a strong second behind Blondie on Cox Plate Day over the 1200m and that effort rated well enough to see her challenge today if she holds her form. Can’t see her regressing so is a rough chance to monitor, with The ‘Cock rating her a $4 chance and the current top quote being three times that.

Warranty is only lightly raced in Sydney but has raced through the grades with strong wins in both of her last two outings. This is her first Melbourne start, so can only assume she handles the experience and she is a must watch chance rated at $8.

Counterplay gets Moreira in the saddle following two strong runs for second at Caulfield on both Guineas and Cup Day, and while she will need to find a few lengths to match Our Crown Mistress’ best, The ‘Cock can’t rule it out.

The ‘Cock said Our Crown Mistress had to replicate Cismontane on Saturday and that is exactly what happened, with Baster producing a carbon copy of that front running win to score at $2.60. Warranty also ran into the money for third.

Race 7 – 3:00pm

Humidor (3), Rekindling (22), Big Duke (13), Johannes Vermeer (7), Marmelo (5)

The ‘Cock has analysed each and every runner in The Cup field, see it here.

Rekindling was The ‘Cock’s best bet of the race at $18 and made it four Melbourne Cup wins in a row for Peacock followers. The ‘Cock called Lloyd this morning to thank him for paying for the upgrades to his superyacht.

Race 8 – 4:05pm

Odeon (19), Lubiton (11) & De Little Engine (8) are The ‘Cock’s top three in an extremely tight race, with Turnitaround (5) and Life Less Ordinary (10) the other key chances.

Another typically wide open Cup Day betting race that you can’t have any great confidence going into, but The ‘Cock has Odeon on top and rated a $5 chance following his last start win at Caulfield. His previous peak rating came when fourth up as he is today and The ‘Cock expects he can at least match it today and be hard to beat.

Lubiton’s last two runs have been superb and she is another that if she can match the performance that saw her win on Cox Plate Day will be tough to hold out. D Lane on board is a positive and she is priced fairly at $5.

The ‘Cock has penalised De Little Engine first up at this trip compared to how he would rate over a longer distance, as while he is capable at 1800m, his first-up rating at this trip last campaign would see him fall short of the top two today. That said, he is not a mile off and definitely a rough chance to monitor for support, rating a $10 chance and currently providing top odds of $34.

Odeon certainly lived up to the fourth up form The ‘Cock praised and was became another top rated winner at $5.60.

Race 9 – 4:45pm

I Thought So (15) rates on top ahead of Faatinah (3), who then has a good gap to Casino Wizard (5) and Princess Of Queens (16) next.

I Thought So provides one of the better investment prospects for the day at $6, rating on top after producing a career peak last start at Randwick when running second, and The ‘Cock expects he improves on that fourth up today with Tommy Berry onboard. Marked a $3 chance for The ‘Cock so happy to take the overs. 

Faatinah is third up today and certainly capable of taking it to I Thought So at his best, and while recent efforts haven’t quite been at that level, his last start third in the Caulfield Sprint was a positive sign. Came out of the same race last year and ran second in this which is about what The ‘Cock expects again today.

Recommended Bet:

• I Thought So (15) – Rated: $3, Current Price: $6.

The ‘Cock’s top two both finished on the lower steps of the podium, but he wasn’t alone in missing the winner Ocean Embers at $17.

Race 10 – 5:20pm

White Moss (5) and Fuhryk (1) are a very tight top two, with Cool Passion (3), Improvement (10) & Quilista (9) an equally tight next best bunch.

The ‘Cock needs his ‘copy and paste’ buttons replaced given how often ‘wide-open race with little betting confidence’ has applied today, and this is no different with another big field and a tight top end here. 

Both White Moss and Fuhryk rate a length or two ahead of all others, with Fuhryk in particular only needing to replicate her last start run to win the Alinghi on Caulfield Cup Day to win today. She rated highly that day and beat home Lyuba, who went on to salute on Derby Day, with The ‘Cock rating her a $4.80. 

Quilista is one to watch closely, now with four starts under her belt since switching to the Weir stable and The ‘Cock believes she has been set for this race. Needs to improve three lengths on her last effort in Geelong to beat the top two, but it certainly wouldn’t have The ‘Cock spilling his glass of ’55 Glenfiddich in shock if she did. Double figure odds needed as a minimum for any investment.

Jamaican Rain is the other roughie to watch at the end of the day, having been freshened ahead of this one and possessing the ability to produce a big run here, as seen by his peak rating run in Adelaide three starts ago. Watch for support.

The ‘Cock was off the mark in this one, with Fuhryk and White Moss both disappointing after being very well supported in the market on raceday, though third choice Cool Passion was only beaten a neck by Pedrena.

Randwick

Race 6 – 3:40pm

Zonk (4) is comfortably the top chance here ahead of O’Reilly Cyrus (5), with a gap to Star Sensation (11), Kawaikini (6), Aanvoerder (2) & Loveletter (7).

Zonk produced a career-high rating first up when winning at Warwick Farm, and despite regressing last time out when running second at the same venue she had plenty of excuses. The ‘Cock expects her to bounce back here, having coped well and winning her only previous wet track run and rating a $2.30 chance.

O’Reilly Cyrus is another one capable on the wet ground and who produced a career peak two starts back at Warwick Farm. Comes out of the same race as Zonk where she was well off the pace, but The ‘Cock is happy to forgive that given her best can certainly challenge Zonk today, rating $6.

Losing the top chance to scratchings opened this race right up, with the winner Star Sensation coming from The ‘Cock’s selections at $4.30. O’Rielly Cyrus paid $2.10 for third.

Race 7 – 4:25pm

Diddums (7) sits on top here, with To Excess (12) the main challenger.

The ‘Cock fully expects the winner to come from these two, who look the only runners capable of meeting the rating required to win this.

Diddums is the pick of the race based on a huge first up performance at Rosehill recently, where she produced a rating which would put her at least three or four lengths clear of the next best runner if repeated here. Proven on the heavy and The ‘Cock is surprised she isn’t an odds-on chance after the scratching of one of the main rivals, but certainly won’t complain about the $3.30 quote.

Recommended Bet:

• Diddums (7) – Rated: $2.20, Current Price: $3.30

Another one destroyed by scratchings as the field of 12 was cut in half. To Excess became an odds on favourite at the jump but was beaten to the post by Samantha, who came in from $13 to $5.50.

Race 8 – 5:05pm

Cordero (8) is the top winning chance, with Tahsin (11), Smooth Whiskey (12), Our Belisa (6) & Gauguin (2) the next best group.

The ‘Cock has the most faith in Cordero of any runner, but there is a wall of horses behind him who are capable if they perform to their peaks today, though on recent form it seems more unlikely than likely.

Cordero blew some cobwebs out on return last start at Warwick Farm and will be much better for that run, having performed well second up and over the mile previously, and rates a genuine $3 chance here for The ‘Cock.

All of Tahsin, Smooth Whiskey, Our Belisa and Gauguin are all going to be around the mark so respect and include in any exotics, but they are going to have to improve on their recent efforts to topple Cordero.

More scratchings. The ‘Cock’s top two were gone, with Our Belisa in the numbers and the eventual winner at $3.

Race 9 – 5:40pm

Gitan (8) narrowly tops this field, with Istria (4) & Brother In Arms (1) the next best duo.

Very similar to the previous race, where The ‘Cock has Gitan rated ahead and the most likely but all two behind him are capable of producing the run needed to beat him at their best.

Gitan’s best form is over the 1400m that he steps up to today following a slightly flat return at Canterbury over 1250m  three weeks ago, and while The ‘Cock holds a slight concern on his ability to improve second up, he can’t knock him enough to put any other runner ahead, rating a $3.80 chance..

The favourite Istria’s previous top rating came fourth up as she is today so The ‘Cock thinks she has further improvement in her after the last start win at Newcastle. Despite that, she rates a $4.50 chance and The ‘Cock would be steering well clear of the $3 top odds on offer currently.  

Istria had all the money behind her on raceday and showed the ‘further improvement’ The ‘Cock mentioned to win as a $2.10, with The ‘Cock’s top Gitan running third.

Doomben

Race 5 – 3:55

Scarlet Poet (10) and Kirini (9) are the only two capable of winning this in The ‘Cock’s book, with very little splitting them but a good gap to the rest of the field.

Big overs of $10 out there for Scarlet Poet currently who rates a $3 chance for The ‘Cock. She comes in off a strong rating second on a bottomless track on the Gold Coast last time out, and while she would be better suited again with some give in the surface, The ‘Cock has faith in her to match the previous rating at this distance having scored at the track and trip earlier in the year.

The key query on Kirini is her record early in preparations as she tends to take a few runs to hit her strides, though she should prove classier than most of these having run in the Queensland Oaks in June.

Scarlett Poet hardly budged from the $10 quote and ran a slightly disappointing fifth, with Kirini slightly off her best and running third. The winner Three Points paid $4.20

Race 6 – 4:37pm

Dynastic (4) is on top here from Thunder Rocker (2), Fortune Star (5) & Magnufighter (1). The ‘Cock likes the top rater Dynastic first up today after he produced his previous career peak rating fresh last campaign to win on the Gold Coast, in an effort that would comfortably account for these. Can’t be certain of his fitness but monitor the market for a guide, with The ‘Cock rating him a $3 chance if wound up.

The others will both need to improve considerably to beat Dynastic at his best but are certainly ones to include in wider exotics.

Dynastic was the big disappointment of this race, with the $3.20 chance bombing out for last. Thankfully The ‘Cock’s other selections Magnufighter and Thunder Rocker finished first and second respectively.

Race 7 – 5:12pm

Inspired Estelle (1) is far and way the best of this field, ahead of Sornja (3), I Remember You (6)  & Cuban Saga (10)

The ‘Cock’s ratings place Inspired Estelle miles ahead of all comers, with her first-up form the only very slight query to have that might see her beaten. Looked to have really improved after moving North from Victoria midyear and even if she isn’t at her best fresh she should account for this field.

Top pick Inspired Estelle was as The ‘Cock suggested she would be – far and away the best of the field – but more importantly a winner.

Race 8 – 5:52pm

Slydini (2) & Madame De Ban (4) are the two standouts, with a big pack of runners rating in behind them.

The ‘Cock would be prepared to take these top two alone in any quaddies, with both capable of far more than what The ‘Cock has actually rated capable of here.

Slydini was beaten on the heavy ten on the Gold Coast as an odds-on pop last start, but The ‘Cock can look past that result to see the run still rated highly enough to win here. Has produced at this track and trip in the past though is currently slightly under the odds at $3, rating at $4 for The ‘Cock.

Madame De Ban is heading in the right direction after producing a solid run in better company second up at Randwick last time out and The ‘Cock can’t see any reason she regresses on that today. Rates on par with Slydini and is also unders at $2.40 currently, but The ‘Cock can’t  see these two being beaten.

The ‘Cock missed the winner Congelator at $5.50, with Slydini and Madame De Ban coming in third and fourth.

Morphettville

Race 6 – 4:16

Written Rulz (8) sits alone on top here, with Duquessa (1) & Kazoom (3) in next and the only other two The ‘Cock considers winning chances.

Written Rulz hit a new career peak rating last start to win at Penola and The ‘Cock expects he will be able to hold it third up today, which should prove more than enough to account for this opposition. Without any previous form over anything longer than 2200m, the distance of 2500m is a slight concern and rates a $3.50 top chance.

Duquessa is one with plenty of form over 2500m, having stepped out at this track and trip six times for two wins and a minor. Doesn’t have the same top end potential of Written Rulz but The ‘Cock is very confident she will run to his expectation which puts her in the top couple.

Both of The ‘Cock’s top picks ran pretty much to expectation, with Duquessa a good winner at $6.30 and Written Rulz, who was crunched into $5 after The ‘Cock tipped it at $14 running well for third.

Race 7 – 4:46

Wicked Rhythm (5) looks the winner for The ‘Cock, with Tropical Lightning (4), Prince Of Pagoda (1) & Silent Elation (14) the ones to include in wider plays.

Wicked Rhythm is third up and should be ready to peak with the step up to 1800m and Victor Wong on board. Only has to replicate the rating which saw him run fourth at Murray Bridge last start to be good enough to win but The ‘Cock fully expects him to go better again, rating him a $2.40 top chance.

Tropical Lightning is only lightly raced and has got the scope for big improvement, with his last start run coming at this track and trip where he finished fourth. Glam Guru ran second that day and went on to do the same in the Wakeful at Flemington on Saturday so watch for improvement from him.

The ‘Cock’s top three went as expected although finished in the reverse order, with Prince Of Pagoda the $5.20 winner from Tropical Lightning and Wicked Rhythm.

Race 8 – 5:32

Street Impact (9) heads a tough race, with Miss Cuocuo (6) & Trupt (4) the best of the rest.

This is a tough leg given many are either fresh, dropping back in trip or both, but The ‘Cock believes Street Impact can handle it better than most.

She steps back to 1100m in her first start for the new trainer Kennewell, having been a touch tardy in a decent race at Cranbourne over 1400m last start that was won by Banish, who went to win the fillies classic on Cox Plate day. A front-runner who is third up and well suited over this trip that rates $3 for The ‘Cock.

The first run in 12 months by Trupt to open her campaign here over 1100m two starts back was at a standard The ‘Cock rates good enough to win today, but she dropped off significantly on that second up which can happen after such a long break. Has had a three week freshen and The ‘Cock can easily see her getting back to the level from her first run to challenge Street Impact.

Street Impact was a drifting favourite who really disappointed here and finished well back, with The ‘Cock’s best of the rest running fourth and fifth, behind a top trifecta which paid $1,200.

Race 9 – 6:08

At ten past six on Cup Day, The ‘Cock expects he will be on the phone to his bank manager organising another vault to store his winnings in – as is customary at this point on the first Tuesday of November. He suggests you find something else to do as well because this is a terrible race to finish in Adelaide and one where you should just play the field and forget about it until that quaddie payout lands in your account.

No bet race.

Ascot

Race 6 – 6:28pm

Kramden (1) & Chin Strap (3) are The ‘Cock’s top two selections, with Denim Pack (5) the next best to include.

The ‘Cock has penalised Kramden fresh here given he doesn’t traditionally produce his best rating work off a break, but even with that he rates ahead of all others in this field. Despite lesser ratings, he has been good enough to win fresh in the past and The ‘Cock expects this might be another one of those races, rating him a $3 chance which is half the current top quote.

Chin Strap comes to Ascot after a last start run at Northam, a scenario which saw him hit a huge ratings peak last time he made the same move this time last year. Two wins at Belmont from his past four outings and The ‘Cock can see him improving on the two most recent runs to challenge here.

The ‘Cock’s top two after the scratching of Chin Strap duly ran first and second, with Denim Pack the winner at $3.

Race 7 – 7:05pm

Great Again (6) looks to be a good anchor in this leg, with Travellin (5) & Greco (9) the two next best to look at.

Great Again is here off an eleven-week break having been undefeated in his two career starts prior. Obviously very lightly raced for a five-year-old but he looks to be the best in this field comfortably, though the current $2.70 quote is not enough to entice The ‘Cock given that first up query.

Unfortunately Great Anchor was another top chance scratched on raceday, though The ‘Cock’s next best Travellin took up the slack to win at $3.10.

Race 8 – 7:45pm

Mikimoto (8) leads a very strong field of fillies, ahead of Sophias Secret (6) & Necklet (9).

A very good listed level race here late in the day, with The ‘Cock very confident on the form of the unbeaten Mikimoto after her win on return here over 1200m last start. Expect she only has to reproduce the last start effort to win but can certainly see her improving, rating a $2.40 chance with Pike in the saddle.

Sophia’s Secret is third up and also has wins from her last two, including a comfortable one at this track and trip a fortnight ago. She rates only narrowly behind Mikimoto as a $3 chance, with the current top quote sitting at $4.50.

Necklet rates just behind both of these top two but she is certainly capable of improving enough to take it up to them, having run a tight second to Mikimoto on debut in September which she will be better for. Overs currently at $13 compared to The ‘Cock’s $6 rating.

By this stage there was much of the country riding W. Pike and Mikimoto in this one – something that would never have been necessary if they’d followed The ‘Cock all day – but he did not disappoint, winning at $2.80.

Race 9 – 8:23pm

The ‘Cock can easily see Sovereign Trade (4) & Sally’s Realm (13) fighting out this finish, with Fille De Merit (2) the next best chance to be aware of.

Sovereign Trade produced over this track and trip last start to run second behind Sophias Secret (running the listed race above), in an effort that would be hard to beat if replicated here. Nothing to suggest he will regress on that performance and rates $2.90 for The ‘Cock.

Sally’s Realm has only got the two starts under her belt but looks a progressive type that can challenge with Pike on her back. Wouldn’t be tipping into the current $2.10 quote but can’t knock her claims.

Sovereign Trade rounded out a winning Perth quaddie as a $3.70 winner.