Cheat Sheet
Moonee Valley
R5. Tavago, Gallic Chieftain unplaced
R6. I Am A Star winner, Hell Or Highwater 3rd
R7. Russian Revolution unplaced
R8. Masculino unplaced
Result: -2.4 units
I Am A Star (7) has been good without being great against some competitive company so far this prep but looks extremely well suited tonight. Showed huge improvement fourth up at The Valley last campaign when she blew them away and comes in under the same circumstances today. Expect rapid improvement again here...
Mornington
R5. No Bets
R6. Charlevoix unplaced
R7. Quilate winner
R8. No Bets
Result: 2.6 units
Quilate was very good first up here recently and tends to improve sharply second up. The ‘Cock has marked her a $3 so there’s plenty of value at current prices.
Rosehill
R5. Alizee winner
R6. Clearly Innocent unplaced
R7. Comin’ Through unplaced
R8. Broadside unplaced
R9. Improvement unplaced
Result: -2.3 units
Alizee looks perfectly suited here and her last start win was the perfect trial for this one, and The ‘Cock rates her on top as a $2 chance.
Morphettville
R5. No Bets
R6. Model Dragon unplaced
R7. Desert Lashes 2nd
R8. Beaus My Boy unplaced
Result: -3 units
Sunshine Coast
R7. Siliqua 2nd
R8. Deep Image unplaced
R9. Don’t Doubt Da Wife unplaced
R10. Manias unplaced
Result: -4 units
Belmont
R5. Let’s Twist unplaced
R6. First Affair 2nd
R7. Floyd winner
R8. Lorentinio unplaced
Result: -2.05 units
Can’t see anything beating Floyd (6) and despite the short quote he is actually a good value bet. Showed plenty of talent as a three year old and despite being beaten by a nose first up, he looks to have gone to another level as a four year old having romped in here second up. Worst career run came over 1200m at Ascot last campaign but there may have been excuses there. Certainly matured since then, he rates a few lengths ahead of anything else and should be odds on.
Caulfield
R6. Kementari 3rd
R7. Bonneval winner
R8. Theanswermyfriend unplaced
R9. Rich Charm unplaced
Result: 0.4 units
Respect Hartnell obviously but The ‘Cock has too many knocks on him to be willing to take the current short odds. His price does create terrific value on Bonneval though. She is unbeaten in Australia and showed she’s improved once more as a four year old, with a really strong first up win in the Dato. Oaks winner in April so there’s no doubt she’ll appreciate 1800m today and will prefer Caulfield to The Valley. Could stamp herself here as a $3 shot.
Warwick Farm
R5. Realise Potential 3rd
R6. No Bets
R7. Le Cavalier unplaced
R98. No Bets
Result: -2 units
Peacock Cheat Sheet: 12.15 unit loss
Daily Best Bets Service: 2/6 for a 0.35 unit loss
Free Early Mail Messenger Bets: 1/4 for 1.5 unit profit