Moonee Valley

Race 5 – 8.30pm

Being on pace at the Valley when the rail out is typically highly advantageous and The ‘Cock has Baduzzi (1) as his top rater at around $4.00. Race looks made for her here, should push forward from inside barrier to lead or sit right behind speed and at $13 in early Thursday markets, she represents serious value. Kardashing (4) looks to be the class runner of the field, resumes here after having excuses when second over 1500m at Moonee Valley in December. The ‘Cock normally penalises any runner from the Jason Warren yard given his lack of ability as a trainer (hasn’t had a good runner since Bel Sprinter) but given prowess at this track, Kardashing (4) is right in the mix and a bet at $5.50+.Next best rated are Soul Star (9), Lady Magnus (2) and Miss Vixen (8) for those that want more security in the first leg of the Quaddie.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Huge value play here with Baduzzi (1), Bet365 went up $13 on Thursday and that is huge overs from the $4.00 The ‘Cock has this runner priced. Amazing each-way betting opportunity. Save on Kardashing (4) with a small Best of the Best bet.

Good money move in betting for The ‘Cock’s top pick Baduzzi, who was $13 into $7.50 factoring in scratchings. He ran a game third but couldn’t wear down the leader Summer Sham ($4 fav) with Soul Star running second ($9).

Race 6 – 9.00pm

Rare to get a big field over this distance under the lights. Speed map going to be key here, doesn’t look a stack of early pace with The ‘Cock heavily favouring runners that sit up front or just off the leading runners.

The ‘Cock is praying there are a few scratchings to allow Vungers (14) to get a start (current second emergency). Has rated strongly his last three starts and if he can maintain that consistency here, he is the runner to beat. The $8.00 on offer early is marked overs given The ‘Cock has him rated half that price.

Two main dangers behind him are Bernie’s Boy (7) and Mutarakem (5), who are must have inclusions for Quaddie players. Bernie’s Boy (7) looks the better value of those two given he has gone up $10 in early betting.

Recommended betting strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be putting the shoulder back and backing Vungers (14) at the early $8.00 fixed price given he expects it will shorten. If it doesn’t get a run in the race, The ‘Cock will sit this one out from a singles betting perspective outside of a very small bet on Bernie’s Boy (7).

Another race with a slew of scratchings including value bet Vungers. Mutarakem finished over the top to score at $4.80 in a tight finish.

Race 7 – 9.30pm

Similar to Race 6, there doesn’t look much speed on paper here which will benefit runners on pace, namely top rater O’lonera (7).

Out to 2500m the sole concern for The ‘Cock here with O’lonera (7) but last four starts all over 2000m and he has rediscovered form of mid 2016 recently. Has strong rider change with Ben Allen replacing Stephanie Thornton and from a forward position, he’ll take running down with any price above $2.90 great shopping.

The only other runner rated in ‘single digits’ is Double Bluff (4) from the hard to catch Robbie Laing stable. Last start winner over 2400m at Caulfield, he will appreciate the slight rise in distance given career best run was over 3200m in the 2017 Adelaide Cup. Looks a solid each way bet at the $10 in early markets and at any price over $8.00.

Unless their is a solid market move for the Weir trained Master Of Arts (1), happy to leave him out of calculations at current rock bottom odds.

Recommended betting strategy:

• The ‘Cock is keen to isolate O’lonera (7) and Double Bluff (4) in singles and quaddie bets. Suggest bigger bet on O’lonera at Best of the Best with a medium sized each-way bet on Double Bluff (4) at $8.00+.

The ‘Cock absolutely nailed this race ala Biff Tannen in Back To The Future II. Double Bluff at $8.50 edging out O’Lonera ($5.00) on the line to win, big fill up race.

Race 8 – 10.00pm

There looks to be only three real winning chances in this race in Knight Commander (4), Abyssinian (11) and Bord De Gain (6). The problem its however they are all currently priced as if The ‘Cock was running his own corporate bookmaker and as such, there is no immediate value opportunities.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Market is scarily accurate, The ‘Cock will be in the chopper back to HQ by this stage. For Quaddie players, bunch the top three raters into your investment.

Race was marked as one where you could throw a blanket over them and that came to fruition, with the longest priced of The ‘Cock’s three winning chances in Bord De Gain ($6) scoring narrowly.

Canterbury

Race 5 – 8.15pm

Market has Argent D’or (4) and Malaigo (6) as the two clear favs in the opening race of the Quaddie, both just under the $3.00 mark. While The ‘Cock also has these two as the top raters, he has Argent D’or (4) marked half the price of Maliago (6) and the clear runner to beat.

Expect Argent D’or (4) to get back early and rely on a touch of pace in the event to benefit him finishing off strong late. He raced flat second-up at this track when poorly away but with Avdulla on board, he shouldn’t get that far back here and if he can rate where he did last campaign for multiple runs, he’ll be winning this finishing right over the top.

Include Malaigo (6) in Quaddie bets but he doesn’t represent any value at current odds and would need to get out past $5.00 to arouse any interest from The ‘Cock.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Very keen to bet up here on Argent D’or (4) at Best of the Best. Class runner and good value at odds over $2.80.

Brenton Avdulla mistimed his run from the back with Argent D’or, who rocketed home but couldn’t nab the leaders running a close third.

Race 6 – 8.45pm

Small but open betting race, The ‘Cock is keen to risk current fav Allez Bien (1) and bet up on the value around her with Sea Sharp (6) at $4.20+ and Tamarack (7) at $4.40+ rated on top.

Sea Sharp (6) went up around $13 in early betting, huge overs considering he has placed last two runs at Canterbury over similar trips and from a forward position in transit, he can be right in the finish at double digits. The ‘Cock will be long on this runner.

Tamarack (7) is bigger question mark of the two despite being shorter in the market, his breeding suggesting 1900m will suit but he is untested out to this distance. Had big wraps from stable for some time but failed to deliver, the longer trip could be the trick and he is a huge winning chance.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Back Sea Sharp (6) in early markets at $7+ with Bet365 as SP guarantee with all fixed odds bets. Save on Tamarack (7), d-day for him but 1900m could be the trick.

Second-last at the 200m mark, Tamarack fired home at $5 to win over Newtown Bluebag. Heavily backed favourite Resort ($3.50) had every chance running fourth.

Race 7 – 9.15pm

Best shortie (and overall bet) of the night here with Lake Lugarno (6) marked odds-on yet $3.10 is available with certain corps in early markets. She ticks every box, mare in form that loves this distance and from a forward position, she simply looks the winner. Fourth up this campaign so expected if anything to improve on recent efforts. Real ‘feathers out’ vibe here from The ‘Cock.

Nothing really to discuss behind her, small value runner in Zarhron (9) who brings strong country form and is underrated in early prices at $21. The ‘Cock has him marked half those odds and likes the stable are willing to make the long drive back into town.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Maximum bet on Lake Lugarno (6) as best of the night, $3.10 if still around is massive overs and isn’t expected to last. Bet up on her with Best of the Best product at Ladbrokes or Neds. Small win bet also on Zarhron (9) who is knockout danger at $13+ if an AOG (act of god) prevents the fav winning.

Lake Lugarno off the map in betting as expected from early market price ($3.10 into $2.50). Never nice getting the worse of a bob on the line but that was the case for The ‘Cock in this one, Lake Lugarno losing in a photo finish to Bolero King.

Race 8 – 9.45pm

The ‘Cock has three winning chances in the last race of the night, with So Hard To Catch (3) on top from Koptite (1) and Forbidden Kisses (4). However, So Hard To Catch (3) is not any real value as early fav in market with the other two at least representing some overs in regards to marked price versus market price.

Koptite (1) has run career best ratings at last two starts, proven in town with placing last run her behind Hilary Step and from an inside barrier, she’ll be afforded every opportunity in running. Any price over $5.00+ is excellent shopping.

Forbidden Kisses (4) sets up similar, struck form in last two starts (both at Canterbury) and flies in under the radar with $7.50 around in early betting. Will need some early pace injected to run on but she can go close again to winning.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Clear three top picks but only two represent supreme value. Happy to back Koptite (1) and Forbidden Kisses (4) at $5.00+ to throw up a surprise result here. The ‘Cock is keen to lay Duchess Pedrille (2) and it’s one to leave out of Quaddie investments.

So Hard To Catch was backed as if unbeatable in this, firming from $2.30 into $1.95. She led but packed up early to run unplaced. Lady Sansa ($26) caused the upset, with The ‘Cock’s top rater Koptite running second at $8.

Flemington

Race 1 – 12.30pm

2yo race to kick off the day and tricky to get a real feel for the speed map or getting uber confident about backing one of the ‘raced brigade’ about beating boom debutant Pierro Belle (10).

Early favourite is the first starter Pierro Belle (10) from the hot McEvoy yard. Won trial in quick time over 1000m in Adelaide and sent to Melbourne for debut which reflects the stables confidence with her. But she’s short enough and The ‘Cock will let her go around at the current $3.00 price.

Khulaasa (7) rates clear top pick of the runners we have seen under race conditions. Only start was down straight at Flemington which is an additional bonus along with services of D. Oliver.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Small bet on Khulaasa (7) at $5.00+ but if there is sustained money for Pierro Belle (10) at $3.00 or less, The ‘Cock would be keen to sit out.

Lots of takeouts from a betting perspective. Pierro Belle was sick as you’ll see in betting, drifting right out from $4.80 to $7.50 on race day. Khulaasa ($4.40) ran a brave second but was not good enough for Prairie Fire ($4.40). They gapped the rest of the field.

Race 2 – 1.05pm

Quite a weak race for a Saturday metropolitan meeting, Bubba’s Call (10) and The Mighty Jrod (8) look the likely speed in the race with favourite Imperator Augustus (3) sitting just off them.

Extremely keen on Imperator Augustus (3), overcame some traffic in the straight to just score at Kyneton over 1850m. That win rated strongly for a race like this and although untested at 2000m, he looks to be on another level ability wise to his rivals with The ‘Cock marking him around $2.50.

The next best chances are Khutulun (2), The Mightly Jrod (8) and Mr Churchill (4).

The ‘Cock will be playing around Cry If I Want To (5), will likely be right out the back early and given what she’s done over her career, she doesn’t look a runner you want to take around $5-$6 finishing over the top to win.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Have a decent bet on Imperator Augustus (3) at $2.50+. Value play is The Mighty Jrod (8), who should get out to near $10 on day so back Best of the Best.

Value followers were rewarded here, with The Mighty Jrod leading from start to finish to pay $10. Imperator Augustus ($4.20) raced very flat, expect him to be spelled or freshened up. Cry If I Want To got all the way out to $10 on raceday, a big drifter.

Race 3 – 1.40pm

Looks to be just two real chances here, likely leader Mamzelle Tess (3) and classy blackmarker Sharing (6). The ‘Cock has further dissected this and believes Mamzelle Tess (3) could have more company up front than the general betting market anticipates, with Spanish Reef (4) and Miss Adequate (10) two runners that can race on pace as well.

Sharing (6) is a super consistent mare from boutique stable, last two runs in particular have rated highly with a win at Flemington over 1400m then a placing at Caulfield over same trip. Smaller field means she shouldn’t get as far back here and afforded the luxury of long straight, she looks the one to beat.

Her main (and only real) danger is Mamzelle Tess (3), makes her own luck up front on the speed and has record to suggest she will give a good kick in the final stages. The ‘Cock wants over $5.00 to get involved with her.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Put a pen through this field barring Sharing (4) and Mamzelle Tess (3). Have your bigger bet on Sharing (4), smaller one on Mamzelle Tess (take both at Best of the Best).

Huge market move for first-up runner Spanish Reef ($6 into $4.40) who won impressively. Both Sharing and Mamzelle Tess ran well under what they are capable of.

Race 4 – 2.15pm

All the talk in this will be Kings Will Dream (7) from the all conquering Darren Weir stable. Import that has won both starts in Oz and third up, he is also getting out to 1600m+ where he is expected to show his very best. Issue though is prohibitive odds in early markets and even with generous concessions for The ‘Cock on his continued improvement, the $2.20 or less is a price to pass on.

The value play is So Poysed (5), in punting stable where the market can determine if there to win so keep that in mind but if able to maintain recent form, he is marked around the $4.00 region. Given all the support from the Richie Callander types in the pubs and clubs will be for Kings Will Dream (7) at short odds, So Poysed (5) gets in under the radar.

Only other runner The ‘Cock can entertain winning this is Downhearted (6). Out to better odds today, he should get a far better run in transit here from a handy spot and he might pinch a break on the runners above early in the straight.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Some will say ‘any price a winner’, ‘back Weir and drink beer’ etc. but you have to always be seeking value and on early prices, the top rater Kings Will Dream (7) doesn’t resemble that. In saying that, The ‘Cock won’t be launching on others to beat him. Small win bet on So Poysed (5) at Best of the Best, juniorburger win bet on Downhearted (7) also at Best of the Best.

Darren Weir has a real star on his hands in Kings Will Dream, who out away this field with relative ease as the short $2.10 fav. Downhearted ($6.50) found the front but added another placing to a frustrating campaign for this followers.

Race 5 – 2.50pm

Down the straight six at Flemington, there looks to be two clear plays here with the two shortest priced runners in the market. Worth watching Race 1 to see if any obvious bias for inside or grandstand rail but assessment below completed with likely no impact of barrier.

Hard to get overs these days with Weir runners but Handsome Thief (13) even at $3.50-$3.70 in early markets, looks the clear runner to beat. First look at straight which is only concern but expected to peak third up this prep and unless he gets ‘Willowed’, The ‘Cock expects him to be winning.

On the flipside, very keen to risk Ken’s Dream (3) who is far better on slow to heavy surfaces (which he won on two starts back here at Flemington) and doesn’t have the raw ability of his stablemate Handsome Thief (13). He will likely drift and The ‘Cock doesn’t want to be on.

Atlantic City (7) in great form at the moment, held up at crucial time last start and freshened for this, he can run a bold race with any price over $7.00 value.

Recommended betting strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be rocking the ring on Handsome Thief (13), take Best of the Best if you miss the early $3.50-$3.70. Small save on Atlantic City (7) who rates on top of more fancied runners such as Ken’s Dream (3).

Handsome Thief was heavily backed, firming from $3.70 in early markets into $2.80 but he just plugged away on the inside to run unplaced. Stablemate Ken’s Dream ($4.40) enjoying a fast tempo to swoop home and score.

Race 6 – 3.25pm

This is the race The ‘Cock is going to make his presence felt as he has the short priced favourite Aloisia (1) marked ‘double-digits’ first-up and will be truckloading Paris Rock (7), Shokora (8) and Neurotic (10) to beat her. He hasn’t seen unders like this since George Clooney was the early $1.50 fav to win the Best Actor Oscar in 2012 (and lost at $10 SP).

G1 winner Aloisia (1) has gone up $2.50 in early markets but is a massive lay at that price given her previous two first up runs have been her worst of her career. Even if she was to significantly improve in isolation on those, she doesn’t get close here. Wide barrier additionally means she will have to work early to race on pace or get snagged back. Expect her to be sick and drift alarmingly.

Paris Rock (7) is the top rated runner, won all three career starts with last two over 1400m and from a handy spot, she is expected to be right in the finish again.

The ‘Cock however will be crunching two runners at extreme value in Shokora (8) and Neurotic (10), who have gone up massive overs at $11 and $21 in early markets on Thursday morning. Both fly under the radar here with the David Gately’s of the world obsession over Aloisia and The ‘Cock expects them to be off the map in betting.

Recommended betting strategy:

• The ‘Cock suggesting staying right away from Aloisia (1) at short odds & thinks she could be a big drifter in the betting. Bet up on Paris Rock (7) at $4.00+, Shokora (8) $5.50+ and Neurotic (10) $8.00+ to beat her.

Lay of the YTD in Aloisia was a colossal drifter, getting out from $2.50 on Thursday to jump $4.60. She was snagged back early as expected and first-up, couldn’t run down the leaders to finish fifth. Shokora ($12 into $7.50) looked a chance late but couldn’t hold off Rimraam ($7.50) in a tight finish.

Race 7 – 4.00pm

Plenty of red flags in a race made up mostly of 3yo’s that are resuming (half of field first-up) so questions over fitness and who can fire over 1400m when they are ultimately looking for 2000m+ this prep. The ‘Cock will be largely sitting this one out aside from getting an early position on Muraaqeb (7) at $10 in early markets, who is huge overs.

Early favourite Cliff’s Edge (1) will have fitness edge on most rivals, impressive first-up win albeit getting charmed run on rails. Wide gate shouldn’t be a factor as he’ll get forward early in this race where most will want to get back and run on. No value however at $5.00, one to back Best of the Best.

Muraaqeb (7) is the clear value runner at $6.00+. 1400m is his ideal trip unlike most of these and he really spiked second-up last start when winning at Moonee Valley, running a career best rating. He had excuses behind Cliff’s Edge (1) last start, expect him to give this a massive shake en route to Australian Guineas ($26 in all-in market with CrownBet).

Recommended betting strategy:

• Given the odds differential, The ‘Cock is keen to bet up on Muraaqeb (7) at the overs of $6.00+ and save on Cliff’s Edge (1) at Best of the Best in an otherwise tough race.

The ‘Cock was around the money with Cliff’s Edge ($6) and Muraqeeb ($9) filling the placings but couldn’t hold off Grunt (16). Muraqeeb in particular was a great trial for the Australian Guineas ($26 to $11) for those that followed in The ‘Cock with the all-in market.

Race 8 – 4.45pm

Not a champagne edition of the Lightning Stakes and at the set weights, Redzel (1) would have to be impacted by an AOG (act of god) or regress back to 2016 form to be be troubled in this.

Redzel (1) is the best sprinter in Australia and beat much better opposition winning the Everest and Darley Sprints in Spring. He is undefeated in last six starts, won both starts down straight at Flemington and maps to sit handy. Deserves to be long odds-on.

If he was to strike unlikely issues winning this, Redkirk Warrior (4) has shown at his very best he can threaten with high ratings winning the G1 Newmarket Handicap last year when first up. Problem is his form in spring dipped markedly in last two starts with no clear explanation and now 7yo, can he unleash a career best run to beat Redzel (1)?

Recommended betting strategy:

• Enjoy the spectacle but if you have to play, back Redzel (1) at all corps that are running money back promos for a minor level of interest.

Sickening for those that backed Redzel ($1.90), he would have traded $1.01 in running with 200m to go but just peaked on effort late as Redkirk Warrior ($10) sprouted wings to run down the champion sprinter. They ran a blinding 56.33 seconds and although beaten, Redzel is the one to follow from this race.

Race 9 – 5.30pm

A race where you are either with Manolo Blahniq (16) or against it (as rest of field all close to $10 or longer). The ‘Cock will be firmly in the ‘with’ camp here, clear top rater but execution on price will be crucial as current odds around $3.50 isn’t huge value and you always need to be taking top odds to win over the long term.

Manolo Blahniq (16) has found career best form this prep after failing to fire last autumn. Winner last start at Caulfield over this trip (1400m) and whilst never placing at Flemington in three starts, The ‘Cock feels this venue suits as long straight gives him time to wind up from a likely rear position in running.

It’s a real mix behind the favourite in the ratings, with Coldstone (10), Glenrowan Prince (14) and Runson (15) the next best but all marked over $10.

He’s Our Rokkii (1) is the obvious wildcard runner, first up and well down in grade. The ‘Cock thinks he is a myth though, form tapered right off in the spring and even if he replicated first up effort last prep when 4th behind Hartnell, that wouldn’t be enough to beat Manolo Blahniq (16) if both get every chance in running.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

• Need to utilise betting avenues that offer Best of the Best product and have decent sized bet on Manolo Blahniq (16) to win.

Manolo Blahniq was well backed from $3.40 into $3.00 but failing to show best when beaten 1.6L by Coldstone ($15), The ‘Cock’s second top rater which made the race a push.

Randwick

Race 6 – 4.25pm

Disappointed Winx didn’t run in the G2 Apollo Stakes, she raced well under her best first up in the spring and as she ages, she looks to be peaking later in her campaigns and could have been vulnerable against some smart middle distance types.

Stevie Wonder could plot Global Glamour (8) going to the front here, has returned in better order than form would suggest and she will get more favours on the pace here in a small field. The ‘Cock not a big fan of the jockey change with Ruth King replacing Kerrin McEvoy but at $5.00+, he’s very keen to be on her.

Top rater is Addictive Nature (9), beaten as favourite first-up behind Trapeze Artist but there were excuses there as he found trouble in the straight when positioned on the inside. Last prep when he jumped from 1200m to 1400m, he showed a significant spike in performance yet he only needs to maintain his first-up rating to be the runner to beat.

Comin’ Through (6) resumes here and has gone up very short around $4.40. Has ability but better over more ground and has come up short off some good trials which have somewhat overrated his true chance of winning this.

Recommended betting strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be looking to get two real positions on this race. Have big bet on Addictive Nature (9) and medium sized bet on Global Glamour (8).

Some interesting moves in betting, with Endless Drama well supported into $4.20 fav as Addictive Nature and Comin’ Through both drifted. Global Glamour gave The ‘Cock a little half chub at the top of the straight when kicking away in front but she couldn’t stave off Endless Drama late.

Race 7 – 5.05pm

Trap race with a slew of runners first-up and messy speed map doesn’t make this a race The ‘Cock will get involved in.

Early market favourite Raiment (5) resumes here, has excellent first-up record to the naked eye but when peeling that back, two of those wins have been on very heavy tracks. On top of the ground, she isn’t as proficient and with a good surface predicted for Saturday, she is well under her true value.

The wildcard is the ex-NZ mare Aide Memoire (1), having first start in Australia for Kris Lees and was placed in G1 company over the ditch last spring. Has gone up $13 in early markets which looks to be slight overs for a mare of her class, albeit factoring in the unknown of her fitness.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Will be going wide in the Quaddie here but leaving out current fav Raiment (5). Like the look of Aide Memoire (1), $9.00+ is worth the risk that she more than measures up here.

Not a race to get much lead on for later events in the autumn, Faraway Town ($8) winning a tight one from Zestful ($10).

Race 8 – 5.45pm

The ‘Cock is excited for this event, with Alizee (3) currently odds-on in betting and creating multiple value opportunities around her. Speed map looks favourable for Shumookh (13), who can settle up front with Debonairly (4).

No doubt Alizee (3) is the class runner, placed in G1 Thousand Guineas in spring but she is at start of long campaign where she will be better placed over more ground and with those concerns, any price under $2.50 cannot be entertained.

Gai has a real winning chance here in Shumookh (13), who is on a definite upward spiral and has freshened up for this after a win and second from only two career starts. As with most GW horses, she will make own luck on the pace and at $8.00+ (a bit of $14 available in early markets), she is an excellent bet.

Next best is Melody Belle (2), NZ filly that comes to Australia after a last start 3.5L win at Ellerslie in very fast time. Slight concern with wide barrier as she could have some trouble getting into a nice running spot but at $4.40+, The ‘Cock will be on her.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Taking a set against Alizee (3) at very short odds. Keen to bet up on Shumookh (13) at $8.00+ and Melody Belle (2) at $4.40+ to beat her.

The ‘Cock came into this race in a strong position, with bets on Shumookh at $12 – $14 (who was heavily supported into $7 by jump time). She looked like the winner at the 200m mark (after being posted three wide the trip) when challenging Alizee ($2.20) but the fav rallied to hold on by a narrow margin. Huge run by Shumookh, a filly on the up and one to follow.

Race 9 – 6.20pm

Big field to end the day at Randwick with another tricky race with several key runners resuming from spells creating a lot of uncertainty. Both Osbourne Bulls (2) and Suncraze (8) fit this bill, first-up but both would have to show close to their best career efforts to be in the finish here.

Missile Coda (17) looks the smart bet, gets in with a very light 53kg and her first-up run was electric, second over 1100m to Once More A Lady (who came out and won again midweek at Warwick Farm). If she can maintain that rating in this race, she is the runner to beat and any price over $4.60+ looks superb shopping.

Hard to pinpoint any further win betting opportunities outside of her, going wider in Quaddie with the inclusion of Osbourne Bulls (2), Suncraze (8) and Difficult To Get (11).

Recommended betting strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be having a medium sized bet on Missile Coda (17) at $4.60+.

Missile Coda ($6) was pestered in front by Difficult To Get ($8.50) during the mid race section, setting the race up for those off the speed. Suncraze was the recipient of some hard money during betting and duly saluted at $4 first-up.

Doomben

Race 6 – 4.33pm

Two of the fancied runners in I’ve Gotta Nel (17) and Criquette (14) should take up the running here with Colinelle (3) not too far away in a handy spot.

Colinelle (3) was a dual acceptor for this meeting but O’Dea has settled on this race and he rates on top following a career best effort when second at Sunshine Coast last start. Back in class here, he gets in well with claim from talented apprentice hoop Boris Thornton and is the one to beat at $3.40+.

The early favourite Publishing Power (6) is the obvious main danger, flat track bully at his home track of Toowoomba where he has won three recent starts there by an average of over 4L. Did flop between those wins at Doomben and it’s hard to take any price under $3.50 about him.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Clear two chances in this, but have a bigger bet on Colinelle (3) given he has gone up much longer odds than Publishing Power (6), who still must be respected with a smaller bet as long as north of $3.50.

Market moves were telling here, Publishing Power being crunched into even-money fav and cutting the corners on the inside, he was too good for Criquette ($5.50).

Race 7 – 5.05pm

Capacity field with no runner sticking out from herd. The ‘Cock is not keen to get involved at all in this one, early favs Kirini (5) and Shield Wall (7) look well under their true value in current betting market but zero confidence on identifying any good bets around them.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Yucky race, The ‘Cock will be very wide in Quaddie and no singles bets.

Was a great race to stay away from, friendless Idle Situation ($11 out to $13) winning with favourites as predicted in Kirini and Shield Wall running under market expectations.

Race 8 – 5.53pm

Familiar field of QLD sprinters, Boomwaa (8) will obviously hunt forward early with Il Mio Destino (5) not too far away behind him.

Impressed by the win of Malvern Estate (14) at Sunshine Coast last start, beating Just Orm (13)in relatively quick time and making it three in a row. Pushed out slightly to 1100m and into city grade means we’ll get a good price about him with anything over $4.40 great value.

Just Orm (13) and Tisani Tomso (4) will benefit from the likely fast speed and loom as the main dangers.

The ‘Cock is keen to risk Supreme Effort (1) up from Sydney, doesn’t have form to warrant being under $9.00 in this yet is the current early favourite.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Certainly not a race worthy of breaking your daughters porcelain pig, but have a small bet on Malvern Estate (14) at Best of the Best.

Blanket finish, with Malvern Estate ($3.50) nabbing front runner Boomwah ($4.40) to score. Just Orm finished a close third at $11, not that The ‘Cock plays the ‘duets’.

Race 9 – 6.20pm

On deep inspection, the early market is unusually efficient which doesn’t create a lot of interest in relation to finding key runners that are overs. Any one of Denbern (10), Jadentom (14) and Lets Party Marty (15) should take up the running here.

Jadentom (14) is main opportunity here for The ‘Cock, in amazing form winning three of last four starts and whilst jumping up in grade, she is running times to be a real danger here and at $4.40+, looks the only real overs commodity.

Hugely respect both Fortensky (3) and Oink (11) however both aren’t any value at this stage at around $4.00 and $9.00 respectively.

Recommended betting strategy:

• The ‘Cock suggests a small win bet on Jadentom (14) at Best of the Best.

Three favourites were only split by 0.2L, with Fortensky ($6) edging out Jadentom ($4.80) and Oink ($4.60). These were identified as the key winning chances and that is how it panned out.

Morphettville

Race 5 – 3.36pm

Need to tread carefully with these low quality benchmark metro staying races where multiple factors outside of pure ability and form come into play.

Euroman (9) is attempting the VIC to SA ram-raid for Darren Weir and has been well found in early betting. Last start win at Geelong was a puzzling one as he drifted in betting, laid in during the final stages but got the job done by narrow margin. Drops back in distance here as well, not runner to pile in on unless north of $4.00.

Value looks to be Dangle Lad (6), another VIC raider that is a more consistent performer than a lot of his main rivals. Drawn to get a gun run on the inside, he can bob up at odds here with any price over $6.50 worth taking.

Next best raters are Ace Attack (1) and Robocop (11), include both in Quaddie investments.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Keen to keep the legs relatively shut here, juniorburger win bet on Dangle Lad (6) at Best of the Best.

Would have been nicer if opting for the ‘Big Mac’ size bet over the ‘Juniorburger’ given Dangle Lad scored impressively, well backed from $8.50 into $7. Euroman blew a gale, $4 out to $5.50 in running unplaced.

Race 6 – 4.11pm

Small field but one runner sticks out in The Chairman (2), he should get nice run from a forward spot in a race where they won’t really sprint along.

The Chairman (2) raced forward when a narrow second in much harder race at Caulfield last start. Stays at 2000m here and at the current market price of $2.50, he is a definite bet given The ‘Cock has him flip of the coin odds ($2.00).

Exalted Lightning (4) and Shenandoah (8) are the two runners that rate next best, include both if you aren’t a ‘one out in the Quaddie’ man.

Recommended betting strategy:

• The ‘Cock will be long on The Chairman (2), keen to take $2.50+ with Bet365 ASAP as should start much shorter. Will also isolate one out in the Quaddie.

Favourite punters and The ‘Cock were left disappointed with the effort of The Chairman, who was well supported as the $2.30 fav but couldn’t kick from an on pace position as Exalted Lightning (the second top rater) finished right over the top at $9.

Race 7 – 4.56pm

$5 the field benchmark 70 race where betting up on these will have you google mapping the quickest route to a tall bridge.

Just Live On (6) is sole runner that represents clear value at $6.00+. His performances are very volatile however over his career, can hit peak like he did when winning last start then drop right off again.

Have to go ‘John Candy’ wide in the Quaddie.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Staying out apart from pimple sized bet on Just Live On (6) at Best of the Best.

Just Live On was the plunge runner here, $4.80 into $3.60 fav but he knocked up from a forward position as Daktari won a real nothing race at $6.

Race 8 – 5.36pm

This is your quintessential race where every man and his dog will be on Weir trained Won Ball (3), likely to start odds-on and carrying the dinner hopes of Australia. He maps to lead this field, with Tempting Faith (9) the only other noted front runner.

Can’t fault Won Ball (3), undefeated from two starts and finds a very weak ‘metro’ race to debut in town. From a forward spot, he will be afforded every conceivable chance and looks the winner. The ‘Cock has him marked $1.70.

Midnight Storm (1) next best but marked just under $10 so it gives you a true reflection of Won Ball’s expected dominance in this race.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Hard to make a case for anything bar Won Ball (3), keen to be on at $1.80 or above.

Speed map played out as expected. You would have taken very short odds on the turn for Won Ball to lead all the way but he failed to give a winning kick at the 400m mark and over the final 100m was nabbed by Tempting Faith ($20), who raced on speed with the fav the whole way.

Ascot

Race 5 – 6.25pm

The ‘Cock has a real feel for this race. Early speed will be set by Veuve De Vega (5) with Baraki Beats (6) the only other noted front-runner.

Veuve De Vega (5) is in sparkling form, put a space on his rivals last start when winning and finds a race he can dominate again given he is likely to have a relatively soft time on the speed. The ‘Cock has him marked in the red and keen to be on at current market odds of $2.40+.

On the flipside, second fav Oliver’s Travel (3) form has tapered off at his last two runs despite one of those being a victory at Ascot over 1500m. Don’t like him back in distance here and at any price under $4.00, he is a clear lay.

Recommended betting strategy:

• The ‘Cock suggests having a big bet on Veuve De Vega (5), especially if he is $2.40+. Sticking neck out and taking on Oliver’s Travel (3) is marked unders at $4.00 or less.

Huge worry when it was announced that Veuve De Vega would wear bar shoes and his drift in the market reflected that when $2.70 out to $3.60. He stopped very quickly in the straight to run last. Oliver’s Travel was the beneficiary, backed into favouritism and winning at $2.80.

Race 6 – 4.11pm

Key runners here including the early favourite Arctic Stream (5) resume from spells which creates uncertainty. Betting moves in respects will be more telling than previous form, which is generally light on given these are 3 year olds.

Miracle Man (1) looks the only real value play on early odds versus his marked price. First up but even if he rated on par with the worst of his four career starts, it still has him a lot shorter than the $10+ he currently is and if they go hard in front, he could surprise finishing over the top.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Pimple on Miracle Man (1) at $7.00+ but otherwise relatively content to sit this race out.

Blanket finish, Miracle Man at the monster odds of $15 bobbed out by Private Dancer ($6.50). Arctic Stream ($3.50) split them in second.

Race 7 – 7.45pm

Small field but plenty of runners that like to race on the speed. Jeraft (8) should be able to take a sit no worse than midfield behind the speed whilst Rebellionaire (9) will be in a similar position.

The ‘Cock had to do a double take when he looked at the early market as somehow Jeraft (8) is the second favourite. Trained on course, it’s last two wins have been sensational and whilst up in grade here, he looks a real talent and at $3.00, is one of the better bets at Ascot for the day.

Rebellionaire (9) rates clearly as the next best but the current odds of $2.50 is huge unders. Would need to get out past $5.00 for The ‘Cock to even contemplate backing him.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Keen to go long on Jeraft (8), looks a real star and anything over $3.00 is excellent shopping.

Scratching of Rebellionaire took all the value away from Jeraft, who went around $1.75 and won with relative ease. Runner to follow.

Race 8 — 8.22pm

Can narrow this down to two real winning chances in Western Temple (3) and My Grace (6).

Western Temple (3) rates clearly on top, gets nice claim back to 57.5kg and although he has already been well found in early betting, he looks a betting proposition at $2.50 or longer.

Huge respect to My Grace (6), could get placed awkwardly on the inside from a midfield spot but if afforded luck at the right stages of the race, she can rattle home to challenge the fav.

Recommended betting strategy:

• Focus on the two main players here, bigger bet on Western Temple (3) at Best of the Best and save on My Grace (6) at $6.00+.

The ‘Cock got this spot on, picking the exacta in order with Western Temple ($3.30) appreciating the claim from Brodie Kirby to score by 1L from My Grace ($8.50).