Moonee Valley (Friday)

Race 5 – 8:00pm

Very little splitting Gwenneth (10), Royalic (2) & Manihi Mischief (8) in a very difficult and evenly matched betting race, which is typical for these 955m races.

Given the price differential, Manihi Mischief at $8+ looks the best bet of the three but this is a race The ‘Cock would rather save his chips in.

Royalic was $4.6 into $4.2 and finished 3rd, but this was not a race to get involved in.

Race 6 – 8:30pm

Sun Quan (1) rates on top, with Prepare To Win (8), Bluebrook (7) & Tezlah (6) the next best.

Sun Quan (1) hit a career peak last time out and if it holds that form, it’s the horse to beat, but The ‘Cock is mindful that the run may have been a slight outlier so will be playing the race with caution. Bluebrook (7) rated very well in its debut last start and looks to have upside, with value in its current $11+ quote.

Tezlah was the 2nd pick after the scratchings and was a winner at nice odds, paying $14.20.

Race 7 – 9:00pm

Incredibly even race with at least 6 genuine winning chances. Marginal top rater is Sherlock Holmes (1), but The ‘Cock couldn’t possibly recommend backing it at the current $3.20 quote as this race is marked $5.5 the field. Ascot Red (4), Golden Flag (6), Sudden Moment (14), Almalita (10) & Zoffany Rose (12) all rate within a length of each other.

The ‘Cock’s top selection Sherlock Holmes won the race, but only paid $3.30. Zoffany Rose finished 3rd paying $4.50 the place.

Race 8 – 9:30pm

Another very even race to end a poor betting night, with The ‘Cock marking a clear top 5 who can all stake a strong winning claim. Selenia (6), Shes Positive (12), Motown Lil (5), Crystal Fountain (2) & Jester Angel (8) rate 1L ahead of the others, but The ‘Cock doesn’t have much between them.

Crystal Fountain (2) is lightly raced and has scope to improve significantly, but on exposed form rates on par with those listed and therefore looks under the odds at $3.

She’s Positive (12) best runs are good enough to win and her past 2 runs suggest she’s getting back towards that level – she looks the best value at $12+ if you have to have a bet.

Both top selections were scratched & the winner Modern Wonder wasn’t noted in the top few chances.

Flemington

Race 1 – 11:45am

Levendi (7), Gaulois (3), Snitzpeg (1), Sambro (5) and Hypnotist (9) are The ‘Cock’s top five to kick the day off, with Lord Sundowner (10) and Almighty (12) the others to be aware of.

This looks like it should make for a very good race between good quality three-year-olds, and The ‘Cock is looking forward to opening the day with a strong result.

Levendi is improving with each run as he moves through the grades and is now fourth up having run sixth in the Caulfield Guineas last time out. The ‘Cock can easily see him rating well enough to win today, and any give in the surface will only help his cause, with The ‘Cock considering him the prime avenue to kick start the day.

Gaulois comes south of the border for the first time here but his Sydney form has been consistent and can measure up well against this opposition. Two starts back this prep for a second at Rosehill and a win at Kembla Grange last start, and while he will need to improve third up, that is exactly what he did third up last campaign to win at Rosehill so it would not surprise in the slightest.

Snitzpeg comes in with wins in his most recent two outings, including here two starts ago over 1400m, in an effort that rated well enough to put him in the frame if replicated here. This his first start at the mile but The ‘Cock respects Weir’s move to try him at it here.

Recommended Bet:

• Levendi (1) – Rated: $3.20, Current Price: $3.60

Best bet Levendi won well, paying $4 and giving Peacock followers the perfect start to the day.

Race 2 – 12:20pm

Bring Me Roses (1) is the top selection, ahead of Rimraam (6) & Hiyaam (5) who have a gap on the rest of the field.

The ‘Cock believes that Bring Me Roses has more upside than any other runner in this field, after being freshened for a month in the same way she was prior to winning the Edward Manifold here over 1600m last start. Ratings have improved significantly with each of her previous steps up in distance, and The ‘Cock believes there is huge scope for her today at 2000m. Rates $2.80 and is currently $4 in the market so is a very good bet.

Both of Rimraam and Hiyaam have stepped out over this trip previously when running second and third behind Pinot in the Ethereal at Caulfield last start, and The ‘Cock believes they will both improve on their respective ratings to be in the picture again here.

Recommended Bet:

• Bring Me Roses (1) – Rated: $2.80, Current Price: $4

Bring Me Roses was disappointing and failed to finish in the placings. Second selection Rimraam was $9 into $8 and finished 3rd.

Race 3 – 1:00pm

Sheidel (1) goes in ahead of the next best trio Zestful (3), Nieta (5) & Lyuba (6), in what is an interesting race down the famous straight.

Sheidel’s career-best rating has come over this same distance at Caulfield, and while she has been slightly below that level in her three previous efforts down the straight, she has been consistently strong and only needs to match those efforts to better what the majority of this field is capable of producing.

Zestful is one who can challenge Sheidel, after turning in a career peak rating at Randwick last start that if replicated at her first attempt down the Flemington straight makes her a genuine winning chance.

Sheidel failed to fire, but the winner Lyuba was noted as one of the main dangers and paid $7.50.

Race 4 – 1:40pm

Cismontane (7) is on top here, with Vengeur Masque (6) the main danger ahead of Ecuador (1) and Alward (9) next.

The ‘Cock expects Cismontane only has to hold the last start rating that saw him run third in the Moonee Valley Cup last Saturday to win this one, and despite being up for a very long time, the last run was the peak effort for the campaign, so there are no signs to suggest he’s dropping off.

The Geelong Cup winner Vengeur Masque has produced runs which measure up with Cismontane’s, and now fifth up this campaign he should improve on his effort in the Bart Cummings at this track and distance two starts back.

Ecuador for Gai is capable of producing ratings which are strong enough to win this, but his recent form has all been over less ground and the jump from a mile to 2500m puts a real query on his credentials. The ‘Cock will be watching the betting markets closely, because if it’s been a deliberate plan and the horse is set for this trip then he is in the mix.

Harlem peaked two runs back with a dominant performance that put him into Melbourne Cup contention, but his two runs since over 2500 and 2400m have both been flat. While his best performance wins this, his ratings are trending the wrong direction for a horse you’ll be taking $3.80 about and The ‘Cock will be betting around him at that quote.

The ‘Cock looked into the future with his assessment of this race. Cismontane was a great winner at $16, followed by Vengeur Masque who ran a gallant 2nd. Alward was closely behind in 4th and $3.80 favourite Harlem failed to fire once he was #CockBlocked.

Race 5 – 2:25pm

Invincible Star (19) is on top, with Catchy (16), Trapeze Artist (1), Viridine (5), Kementari (2), Eptimum (10) & Formality (18) rating in that order close behind her.

This is an incredibly strong edition of the Coolmore, with only four or five runners The ‘Cock can firmly rule out. Enjoy watching what should be a great spectacle but it’s not a race to be heavily involved in.

Invincible Star produced a big career peak to win at Caulfield last start and that is a performance that only has to be matched to win this. She’s proven up the Flemington straight with a win on Cup Day last year and The ‘Cock has her marked as the one to beat in a very competitive race.

Catchy’s run to win the Danehill over this track and trip three starts back was a career peak rating, and she looks well suited again here. Question mark on how well she handles the freshen up after the Guineas, but her best efforts put her right in this.

Trapeze Artist put in a huge performance to win the Golden Rose as a 50/1 chance which has catapulted him to the upper end of the market here, but The ‘Cock has got question marks on how well that form holds up, given they ran the first section of the race faster than Black Caviar and set it up perfectly for Trapeze Artist as a swooper.

Viridine is unbeaten in four career starts and put in a peak performance in last start when nearly lapping them at Randwick. Definitely needs to improve on that again to topple the top chances here but has got the scope to do so and is one to monitor.

The phone had rung 3 times with The ‘Cock calling his architect to put another storey on the house with Invincible Star looking the winner at the 100m, but he had to hang up the phone when Merchant Navy flashed down the inside to beat her on the line.

Race 6 – 3:05pm

Shoals (16) and Global Glamour (2) are the two standouts, with Foxplay (3) and Dixie Blossoms (8) next best.

Shoals looks absolutely primed for this one, having produced very strong ratings in her two most recent starts at Caulfield where she finished second. Those are the worst two results of her six-start career which suggests there’s extremely good reason for having her on top. The ‘Cock thinks she looks incredibly well suited under WFA conditions, and after I Am A Star won this as a three-year-old last year he has all his feathers out on this one.

Global Glamour’s two Group One wins last Spring rated high enough to win this race, and while she hasn’t hit those peaks since her last start win at Caulfield wasn’t far behind it. Can definitely improve further again but The’Cock still rates her behind Shoals with the big weight advantage.

Foxplay produced a rating first up that was a good enough run to win this, but she regressed in her first Victorian outing last start. Is a Group One winner under these conditions already and has been set for this one, so while she rates just off the top two she can return to those peak ratings and challenge.

The ‘Cock called the architect back to apologise for the prank call and start planning the next storey on the house after one of his best bets of the day Shoals saluted, with The ‘Cock tipping it at $7 when prices first went up.

Race 7 – 3:50pm

Ace High (1), Sully (6), Tangled (2), Astoria (3).
The ‘Cock has picked apart the entire Derby field in his runner by runner analysis here.

Another race where The ‘Cock was able to look into the future and predict the result. Ace High a strong winner at $7.50, with Sully and Astoria filling the placings.

Race 8 – 4:35pm

Tosen Stardom (1), Lucky Hussler (2), All Our Roads (12), Tom Melbourne (5) and Radipole (13) make up a very tight top five.

Tosen Stardom comes into this with very good credentials after running a big third behind Vega Magic in the Memsie earlier this campaign before winning the Toorak Handicap last time out. Consistently strong of late and absolutely no reason he regresses here.

Lucky Hussler improved out of sight to win the Crystal Mile last Saturday but had absolutely everything go his way throughout, and has previously spiked in ratings like this only to dip next start. While last Saturday’s effort was strong enough to win this race, The ‘Cock can’t have confidence he’ll do it again.

All Our Roads looks a great rough prospect, as a Kiwi who has produced two high rating runs in his first two Australian starts and looks to have well and truly beaten the handicapper to carry only 52kgs. The ‘Cock can certainly see him matching the top-rated runners and winning this.

Radipole produced his best run since coming over from France in the last start in the Seymour Cup, which came on the back of a five-week freshen up. The ‘Cock expects he improves again on that effort with a run under his belt which will put him right in this.

All Our Roads was the best backed runner in the race (in from $18), but went to hard in front and just finished out of the placings. Tom Melbourne ($5.50) finished 2nd, as he usually does.

Race 9 – 5:20pm

Illustrious Lad (1), Lope De Capio (6) & Man From Uncle (15) rate on top with barely a hair to split them, but with a good gap on the next lot of challengers.

Illustrious Lad won this race well last year after improving massively on his lead in performance, and they have followed an almost identical path into this. His last start effort at Caulfield was stronger than the corresponding race coming in last year, so The ‘Cock is happy to assume he can replicate it again this year.

Lope De Capio comes across from Adelaide having produced a career peak rating to win his last start at Morphettville, in a performance that measures up well here. This is his first time at Flemington but currently sits well over the odds at $18 currently.

Man From Uncle produced a strong first-up rating last campaign which The ‘Cock deems as good enough to be competitive if he can replicate it again fresh today. Still only lightly raced so could easily have improved with the break, and while he is a tough one to assess The ‘Cock does consider him capable of matching the top two.

Lope De Capio was the best backed runner in the race, but The ‘Cock was off the mark here with all of his top 3 failing to place.

Rosehill

Race 6 – 3:25pm

Victime De Lamour (10), Social Element (2) & Mornington (7) rate as the only three winning chances for The ‘Cock.

The ‘Cocks top pick Victime De Lamour is fourth up today after improving in each of his three runs back so far this campaign, and while The ‘Cock has got him conservatively rated just narrowly on top, he believes there is scope for him to absolutely blow them away if he can produce something on par with his previous best runs.

Social Element has begun his career with consistent money making runs and is a front-runner who will give himself every chance of registering another one here. Drops back from 2400m for this race but he did react very well to his last drop in trip, so The ‘Cock expects he can run a big race again.

Mornington is in for his first Australian start since coming across from Europe and while The ‘Cock can’t possibly make a concrete judgement on him without seeing him, his men on the ground in the Waller camp suggest he’s not one to leave out of your quaddies.

The ‘Cock was well off the mark here and though Mornington finished 3rd at $3.20 the place, he failed to find the top 2.

Race 7 – 3:25pm

Slow Burn (6), Overstep (3), Gwenneth (8), Picardy Rose (11), Anatola (4) & Times Of War (2).

Another tight race and it’s not one which inspires any great betting confidence, so play wide in the quaddie and don’t get too heavily involved.

The short favourite Slow Burn has certainly got the potential to romp in here but The ‘Cock is concerned with her third up record, having regressed significantly last campaign following two strong runs to start the prep and he would be steering clear of anything less than $3.50.

Slow Burn romped in as The ‘Cock thought it was capable of doing, but at $2.60 it was hardly worth backing. 2nd selection Gwenneth did finish 2nd as an $11 chance, so those playing exotics would have found the exacta.

Race 8 – 3:25pm

Grunderzeit (4), Isorich (2), Zumbelina (9) & My Country (11) rate on top with a half-length separating each of them.

The ‘Cock’s best bet of the race was lost to an early scratching and there’s not much to split those who are left on, but Grunderzeit is the pick of them following a near career peak rating at Randwick last time out. He has had five weeks between runs and given he has traditionally done his best work when fresh this should be no concern. Rates around $4 and currently paying nearly double that price.

Isorich is an experienced campaigner in a rich vein of form, having hit a career-best rating last start to win at Randwick. Super consistent and should he hold his form you can rely on him being in the photo, but is also off a five-week break and The ‘Cock thinks this will have more of an adverse effect compared to Grunderzeit.

Zumbellina was the best backed of the top 4 and won with a top fluctuation of $3.70, My Country finished 3rd.

Race 9 – 3:25pm

Gamblers Blues (10), Crafty Cop (1), Sirens Fury (13), Bring Me A Secret (9) & High Mist (7) are The ‘Cock’s top five in an incredibly tight race.

The ‘Cock would be splitting hairs to separate any of the top six or seven in this field which makes for a certain no bet race, and one to play wide the quaddie.

Wayanka won at double figure odds, with top selection Gamblers Blues finishing 2nd.

Doomben

Race 6 – 4:23pm

Takarakka (17), Aqua Vite (10) & D’harmony (2) are the standouts in a low confidence betting race, where The ‘Cock holds some concerns about the credentials of each of the top raters.

Takarakka has two wins and three minors from his six starts this campaign and is certainly one who is better placed than most as a front-runner. Currently second in the market at $4.60, a quote that makes him better value for money than the odds-on favourite, but it’s still not a race to be betting in given the extremely tight top end.

Aqua Vite is that odds on chance who has filled each spot on the podium in his three starts back from a spell, with the win on a bottomless track at the Gold Coast last start producing a career-high rating. The ‘Cock expects some regression on that performance over better going and couldn’t possibly take the $2.

A poor betting race made worse when the top selection was scratched. Subsequent top rater Aqua Vite finished 3rd.

Race 7 – 5:08pm

Torgersen (1) tops the next best trio Zahspeed (12), Lord Coconuts (9) & Lauterbrunnen (5).

A tough betting race and another The ‘Cock would prefer to stay out of given the multitude of strong contenders and absence of any real value.

Torgensen goes on top following a last start win on the Gold Coast which rated well enough to win this race if replicated, and The ‘Cock expects he should be able to match it. Rate him a $3.50 chance.

Zahspeed’s first effort in Queensland on the Sunshine Coast two starts back rated very strongly and not far shy of his previous best performances in Melbourne. Regressed here last start over 1350m but steps up over the mile today which will help his cause and put him in the top few.

Lord Coconuts and Lauterbrunnen are both priced about right at $8 and $9 respectively and The ‘Cock believes each of them has got scope to improve on recent runs and be good enough to win this.

Top rater Torgersen finished 3rd, beaten by the 2nd selection Zahspeed who was $7 earlier in the day and was backed into $3.60.

Race 8 – 5:53pm

Miss Exfactor (3) is The ‘Cock’s clear top pick, rating ahead of Hostwin Meraki (2) and Colosimo (1).

Miss Exfactor has only got the four starts under her belt but has hardly put a foot wrong in registering two wins and two minors to start her career, including second behind Houtzen on debut. Has produced very consistent ratings that are going to hold up here and she rates a $3.20 chance for The ‘Cock.

Recommended Bet:

• Miss Exfactor (3) – Rated: $3.20, Current Price:$3.70

Top rater was scratched during the day, making this a race to pass on. Double figure winner wasn’t noted, with Colosimo finishing 3rd.

Race 9 – 6:30pm

Chamalu (12) is far and away the best of this field and The ‘Cock doesn’t have anything else rating in the same league as him.

Chamalu won on return his last start on the Sunshine Coast after a year out following his run in the 2016 Golden Rose at Rosehill. Only his fourth career start here but just looks a class above everything else in the field to The ‘Cock’s expert eye.

Recommended Bet:

• Chamalu (12) – Rated: $2.50, Current Price: $2.85

Chamalu was backed as though The ‘Cock wasn’t the only one that thought he was a certainty, with an SP of $2.15, but he got held up for a run and finished 4th.

Morphettville

Race 5 – 4:01pm

Get The Nod (3) is on top for The ‘Cock ahead of Tintagel Rocker (4) & Cashed (1), but with some key concerns on the top rater The ‘Cock would not be betting.

Get The Nod produced a strong rating  in a blanket finish here last time out six weeks ago, and while he has got the potential to blow them away if he can get close to his previous best ratings, The ‘Cock has got concerns over his second up form that has seen ratings drop in the past The $2.80 current top quote doesn’t represent enough value to get The ‘Cock involved here.

The warhorse Tintagel Rocker (4) was out of his depth at The Valley last Friday night but his back-to-back wins at Port Lincoln prior to that rated very highly and would put him in the photo if he could replicate here. One to monitor at double-digit odds.

Get The Nod broke down in the run unfortunately, but Tintagel Rocker was heavily backed and won well.

Race 6 – 4:46pm

Vieira (2) and Street Embrace (1) are the top two, ahead of next best Bwuva & Swipe Me Right (8).

Safe to say this isn’t a race where The ‘Cock will be frantically looking to change the channel to watch, with some ordinary horses matched by their uninspiring form lines, and there’s no real value to be had anywhere.

Top Selection Vieira won at $3.30, with Bwuva finishing 3rd.

Race 7 – 5:31pm

Another tough race with plenty of winning chances, but The ‘Cock has Embecee Lil (11) marked on top from Miss Identified (8), So Skilled (5), Metro Cowboy (5) & Wanted By All (10)

Embecee Lil scored for The ‘Cock here two weeks ago over 1300m and The ‘Cock predicts she is only going to improve on that run, having been in rich vein of recent form for three wins in her last five. Rated a $3 chance.

Miss Identified has two wins under her belt from her last two starts, including the most recent effort here over 1250m. Only needs slight improvement with more ground here to take it to Embecee Lil and The ‘Cock considers her capable.

So Skilled has been around the mark in every start so far this campaign, with ratings that don’t leave him only a couple of lengths short of what will be required today. Would not shock The ‘Cock to see him win it.

The ‘Cock noted this was a hard race to assess, yet still managed to find the trifecta. Miss Identified was a $7.50 winner in a head bobbing finish.

Race 8 – 4:01pm

Via Balciano (10) and Battistoni (8) not only sound like the midfield combination of an Italian soccer team, they are also The ‘Cock’s clear top two in a race which is littered with first uppers.

The ‘Cock is prepared to trust the strong debut win of Via Balciano at Balaklava, where he reeled in the leader nicely before bursting clear down the stretch. Have him on top of all numbers, but with half of the field off a break, it’s not a race to be investing in.

Both top selections were scratched, leaving no selections in what was a raffle of a race.

Ascot

Race 5 – 6:20pm

La Mouline (7), Cruachan (5), Awesome As (6), Star Value (3) & Lorentinio (2) all rate as good chances in a tough race to start the quaddie.

La Mouline hasn’t missed a beat in her three starts back this campaign, with a tight second first up followed by consecutive wins that measure up well here. No issue with the step up to 1400m and is certainly a justifiable favourite, although The ‘Cock rates her a $3 chance and wouldn’t be buying into the $1.90.

Cruachan ran a very close second behind La Mouline last time out and The ‘Cock expects this race to pan out in a similar fashion here. He has got proven form over 1400m and The ‘Cock can absolutely see him turning the tables this time around.

Lorentinio is one who needs to be noted as a good rough chance, possessing a very strong record at the trip and as a likely leader who hasn’t missed the top two in his last five showings. Rates $10 for The ‘Cock and can currently find a max price of $15

Top selection La Mouline won at $1.90.

Race 6 – 7:00pm

Whispering Brook (10) & Variation (5) are The ‘Cock’s two main chances in this Group Three and are the key numbers to note for your quaddie, with Cosmic Storm (2) the next best.

This is another tight race but The ‘Cock likes these top two to replicate their recent high rating performances, with Whispering Brook trending in the right direction in her three starts back. Went to Melbourne and ran third in the Thousand Guineas last year so has got plenty of ability and has done it at the track and trip previously. Rates $4 for The ‘Cock so is currently overs at $6.

Variation put in a big performance second up last campaign to win here and his first-up run at Bunbury three weeks ago suggested he could get back to a similar rating today, which would put him right in the mix. Rates $4.50 and currently sits at a top price of $5.

Whispering Brook & Variation beat everything home, except for the $26 bolter Pounamu in a heartbreaker.

Race 7 – 7:35pm

It’s It (5), Dainty Tess (9), Durendal (2), Rebel King (1), Profit Street (6) & DreamLifter (3) are the unsplittable top chances, in a race that smart punters won’t bother getting involved with without some drastic changes post scratchings.

This Group Three over 1000m will certainly be worth watching, but with the haphazard form lines throughout the field, The ‘Cock can’t have confidence investing in it.

It’s It is a rough prospect who rates very well and has produced regularly at this trip, also winning two listed races from his last three. The eight weeks between starts is not ideal but certainly won’t surprise The ‘Cock to see him win at juicy odds, rating him a $7 chance.

Recommended Bet:

• It’s It (5) – Rated: $7, Current Price: $17

It’s It sat on the leaders heels throughout the race but the hot pace saw him fade late, as the second pick Dainty Tess swooped to win from Profit Street and Dream Lifter.

Race 8 – 8:15pm

Pushin Shapes (2) is the clear top pick in this race, with Pinzu (1), Point (8) and Oliver’s Travels (10) next best.

The ‘Cock would be happy to have Pushin Shapes one out here after producing a career peak rating to win at this track and trip last start. Absolutely no reason to doubt his claims in this and The ‘Cock is happy with $6.50 for one he rates half that quote.

Don’t discount First Affair who gets another step up in distance, which on previous indications can be the tonic to bring about another ratings spike and he rates $9 with The ‘Cock.

Recommended Bet:

• Pushin Shapes (2) – Rated: $3.25, Current Price: $6.50

Pushing Shapes was scratched on raceday, with the eventual winner Properantes knocking out the more fancied shots to win at 15/1