Moonee Valley

Race 5 – 8.30pm

Stack of speed engaged with Weekend Escape (4), Divertente (10), Miss Vesper (6) and Fica Girl (3) all noted front runners.

Early market favourite Miss Vesper (6) comes into this off strong second at this track/trip last start when overwhelmed late by the classy Weir trained Avanti Rose. Slight concern here is she’ll have plenty of company in front tonight and it could be deja vu for her backers as she can be vulnerable late if unable to have an uncontested on pace run.

Wildcard runner from hard to catch Mick Kent yard is Good Oh (8). Resuming off sizeable spell (216 days) but two best career runs have come in debut win and first up last winter. Market moves will tell the story with her, suspect if supported she can be winning this first up.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Play it very guarded as stack of speed could throw up a result. Good Oh (8) definite knock out runner but need to see market support to be on her, small Best of the Best bet with Neds.

Race 6 – 9.00pm

Little bit bittersweet for The ‘Cock with Vungers (8), who was much better odds last week in early markets before being scratched in a  very winnable race. He pops up here and much shorter odds but looks the one to beat. He has positive trait of racing on speed which is a plus here given short straight and relative moderate tempo that should ensue. $3.50+ is great value for him.

Main danger is Manning Road (10), claim from female apprentice brings him back to 55.5kg and from a midfield spot, she can present as a winning chance late in the race. Slight knock on her is failure from two starts on rain affected going, a trait The ‘Cock doesn’t like for runners at the Valley given the surface normally has quite a lot of cushion.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Vungers (8) finds a very winnable race, medium sized Best of the Best bet with Neds.

Race 7 – 9.30pm

They’ll scoot along here in the G3 Typhoon Tracy with Regimen (6), Pretty Fast (4) and Kardashing (7) the likely leaders.

The ‘Cock has found his lay of the night in much hyped Coolmore filly Tulip (1). She was a top liner last spring, contesting The Everest as a 3yo and running a commendable fifth beaten under three lengths by Redzel. Her two subsequent runs however have been well below best and there is huge doubt around her rediscovering form of her 2yo and early 3yo campaigns. Maps to sit midfield and unless she is blessed with a 10/10 ride from Kerrin McEvoy, she looks big unders at $3.00.

Bella Martini (2) has had small freshen up for this, has won last three starts culminating in a narrow Listed Gosford Guineas win over 1200m. Winner at the track, she’ll be handy to the leaders mid race and rates on top, with the $4.40 quote in early markets appealing.

Can’t fault Regimen (6), she was so consistent in her first campaign from start to finish and if she has improved over the summer while spelling, she could prove very hard to run down. $5.50+ is good value.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Playing around the short priced favourite Tulip (1), back Bella Martini (2) and Regimen (6) to get the better of her, with $3.70+ and $5.50+ respectively the value to seek.

Race 8 – 10.00pm

Ugly race, real pin the tail on the donkey vibe. The ‘Cock will be back at HQ rounding second base by this stage of the night.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

No bet race, go John Candy wide in the Quaddie.

Recommended Quaddie:

1,6,8/6,8,10/2,6/3,5,6,10,11.

$100 for 111%.

Break even night for The ‘Cock at Valley, with Vungers in Race 6 the highlight winning at $3.20 Best of the Best.

Good Oh was truckloaded in Race 5, backed from $5.50 into $4.40 but he got way too far back with sneaking suspicion winning first-up wasn’t high on the Kent team’s agenda.

The ‘Cock came up short in the G3 Typhoon Tracy, with fav Tulip beating his two value bets. She was however a noted drifter in the market, easing all the way from $3.00 on Thursday out to $4.20 by the jump of race. Though this was not a strategy recommended by The ‘Cock, you could have laid her at $3.00 on the Thursday and had it all back at the starting price of $4.20 and made an earn – which highlights the importance of assessing runners based on price.

Caulfield

Race 1 – 12.30pm

Trap race to open the day, with a not a lot of speed on paper meaning there could be some horses change their typical running pattern. One certainty is that Cismontane (3) from the Gai yard will be hunted up and is expected to lead.

2016 Cup winner Almandin (1) resumes here for new trainer Liam Howl….cough, cough Lloyd Williams. His last three runs of 2017 spring preparation dipped well below his usual standard but he has shown in the past first-up that he can hit a rating that makes him the one to beat. Trick is will there be enough speed injected to allow him to come off the pace and challenge. The ‘Cock doubts that and as such, is keen to stay out.

Bedford (9) has really hit his straps in 2018, winning three of last four starts with last two over this track/trip. Concern is that he really peaked two starts back when storming to 6L victory and ran markedly worse albeit winning last start. At the current $4.00 quote, he does looks unders.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Knowing when not to bet is as important as knowing when to bet. The ‘Cock recommends leaving this race alone.

Race 2 – 1.05pm

Not a vintage Autumn Classic but that means nothing here as Le ‘Cock has identified Astoria (1) as his pronounced best bet of the day. There looks to be adequate speed in this race, with Valiant Spirit (5) and Wetakemanhattan (7) the two likely leaders, expect Astoria (1) to settle in a midfield to backward position.

Astoria (1) returned in great order first-up over an unsuitable 1400m on this track when an unlucky third behind Holy Snow after being posted three wide in the breeze for most of the trip. Step up in distance and set weights really appeal, The ‘Cock thinks the early market odds of $4.60 is big overs and keen to step in heavily at $3.00+.

The only logical danger looks Mr So And So (3), who finished off as strong as any runner after getting held up in same race as Astoria (1) behind Holy Snow. Taking a risk with him however out to 1800m (unlike Astoria).

Recommended Betting Strategy:

The ‘Cock will be rocking the ring on this one, keen to snap up the $4.00+ in early markets for Astoria (1) and will come again on raceday at Best of the Best.

Race 3 – 1.40pm

Plenty of pace expected for the 3yo’s, with Overshare (1), Plutocracy (7) and I Did It Again (6) the group that should be up front early. Early markets suggests race is fairly open, with Overshare (1) the favourite around $4.00.

The ‘Cock is keen on Overshare (1), whose effort last start in the high rating Manfred Stakes behind Cliff’s Edge (who has since franked form) was the clear run of the race after being posted 3-4 wide the trip and still looming as the winner in the final stages. He will have a much easier time of it here in small field and the current early market odds look big overs as The ‘Cock has him marked just under $3.00.

I Did It Again (6) comes out of same race where beaten into fourth behind Cliff’s Edge and Overshare (1) after having an easier run in transit on the inside. He dipped in rating second-up last prep but should again be favoured by positioning on speed and although unders at current price of $5.00, he is the main danger to Overshare (1).

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Another race to be betting up in. The ‘Cock will be long Overshare (1) in early markets at $4.20+ as he has him marked far shorter.

Race 4 – 2.15pm

The ‘Cock will be executing a one, two punch in this 3yo fillies race with Smart Coupe (2) rating clearly on top from value runner Counterplay (1). Speed in this should be strong, with Ocean Deep (9) and Summer Sham (6) likely to be the pacesetters.

Smart Coupe (2) had a barrage of issues last start, tardy from the gates then never settling in the run to knock up a well beaten sixth. Her start prior when first-up is more indicative of her true ability when second at Caulfield over 1100m. Gets gun jockey on in Damien Lane and against a very moderate Group 2 field, she looks hard to beat at $3.60+.

You can read a lot into the the decision to bring Counterplay (1) straight to Melbourne after what on paper looked a very disappointing first-up run at Morphettville when a firm odds-on fav. From a small sample size, she has improved noticeably at her second run in a prep and looks excellent value at the $11 in early markets with Bet365.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Have decent sized bets on Smart Coupe (2) at $3.60+ and Counterplay (1), who is huge overs at $11 with Bet365.

Race 5 – 2.50pm

Scratching of Petition has dulled enthusiasm for this event given The ‘Cock was really keen before that to lay Silent Sedition (1) for the national debt of Greece. That has all changed now, map looks to have the hot fav Silent Sedition (1) getting a cheap lead in front, with Flippant (6) the only runner that can logically challenge him early.

Not a race The ‘Cock will be getting involved in but Flippant (6), Samovare (7) and Jester Halo (9) can all rate at a level to threaten Silent Sedition (1).

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Keen to largely sit this one out, pimple sized Best of the Best bets on Flippant (6) and Samovare (7) if you must bet.

Race 6 – 3.25pm

First of the day’s three Group 1’s. Doesn’t look to be much speed here at all, expect Lord Of The Sky (4) to take advantage and press forward with Showtime (11) not too far behind. Lack of tempo plays against the chances of the three top raters in Brave Smash (3), Mighty Boss (10) and Tosen Stardom (1), given all are ‘get back & run on’ animals.

Brave Smash (3) is the top selection but speed map guards any ultimate confidence. He’ll need to get up near his best AUS effort (which came in the Everest last spring) to be winning this which gives you an indicator why push for him is conservative.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Market looks fairly efficient with runners priced very close to their chance in the race. Going wide in Quaddie.

Race 7 – 4.00pm

On paper, this looks as wide open a Blue Diamond or even a Group 1 race seen in the modern era but The ‘Cock has made a small fortune off 2yo racing and is keen to bet up on two runners. Speed map hard to gauge given max field and need for positioning will be ultra important but expect tempo to be extremely solid.

David Hayes is the trainer to follow as he saddles up The ‘Cock’s two top raters in Ennis Hill (13) and Long Leaf (1).

Fillies have won 4 of the last 6 Diamond’s and Ennis Hill (13) showed in her powerhouse last start win she can run very fast sectionals mid race and over the final stages to make her a challenger in whatever she contests this autumn. She’ll most likely need to find a new way to win after leading all the way last start but at her current price of $9.00, she is the definitive value play in this race.

Long Leaf (1) has won all three starts of its career, capped off by a win in the Diamond Preview late last month over 1000m. He looks better suited speed map wise to many of these given he has shown an ability to settle handy to midfield and rattle home which will be advantageous here with a likely hot tempo. Whist he rates behind Ennis Hill (13), he still is overs above $6.00.

Next best are Encryption (6), Prairie Fire (4) and Written By (2) for Quaddie investments.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Isolate two runners in Ennis Hill (13) and Long Leaf (1). Have ‘Big Mac’ sized bets on both, at $5.50+ and $6.00+ respectively.

Race 8 – 4.45pm

Champagne edition of the G1 Oakleigh Plate, with a capacity field of 18 and many different formlines to dissect but from a punting perspective, the early market looks well priced which lessens any immediate value plays.

First-up specialist (unbeaten from three starts when resuming) Russian Revolution (2) rates on top, The ‘Cock marking him at $4.40. He is still generally underrated despite winning six of his ten career starts. If he can rate within a length of his previous three first-up runs, he will take a power of beating. He’ll be handy and has shown in the past he can overcome poor barrier manners and wide runs to still win.

Behind him it is wide open, the next best are marked as Catchy (17), She Will Reign (16), Snitty Kitty (8) and Booker (18).

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Don’t need to overthink this race, medium sized Best of the Best bet with Neds on first-up jet Russian Revolution (2).

Race 9 – 5.25pm

The traditional lead into the G1 Australian Cup has all of the key runners engaged, with Hartnell (1) and Gailo Chop (2) the headline attractions at the top of betting around the $3.00 mark. Speed map looks straight forward, Gailo Chop (2) or Jacquinot Bay (3) to lead with Hartnell (1) likely to settle in a midfield position.

The ‘Cock is keen to take on Hartnell (1) here and thinks Single Gaze (9) looks the main danger to Gailo Chop (2), who rates clearly on top.

G1 winner Gailo Chop (2) maps to get all the favours here, with options to lead or take a sit just behind Jacquinot Bay (3). He won softly first-up and can improve on that today as he steps up to a more preferable 1800m. Ticks every box and The ‘Cock expects him to go around the deserved fav and thinks any price over $2.50 is value.

Single Gaze (9) lost momentum at a crucial stage first up before rocketing home on the inside to just miss in the G1 Orr Stakes behind Hartnell. She loves Caulfield, will get enough tempo on to suit and is a great each-way option at $6.00+.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Keen to bet up around Hartnell (1), have a big man’s bet on Gailo Chop (2) at Best of the Best with Neds and save on Single Gaze (9) at $6.00+.

Recommended Quaddie:

1,3,4,10/1,2,4,6,13/2,8,16,17,18/2,9.

$100 for 50%.

The ‘Cock had a strong day at Caulfield, with three winning bets from the six races identified as having sound betting opportunities.

Overshare ($4.20 into $3.80) got a much easier run in transit to win, Russian Revolution ($4.60 Best of the Best) again showed his peak first-up to score in the G1 Oakleigh Plate and Gailo Chop ($2.60 Best of the Best), who was $3.20 early in the week, enjoyed a soft run in the lead to prove too good for Hartnell.

It would have been a ‘Pratt Family’ sized fill up had Astoria ($4.60 into $3.40) won. He was a huge market move, The ‘Cock backing him at $4.60 on Wednesday before his price shrunk to $3.40 by jump time. Unfortunately the race had a very slow tempo and settling right out the back, he had little hope of catching the leader who stole the race. He looks set for a good campaign and is one to follow through the autumn.

Rosehill

Race 6 – 3.45pm

To the wider masses, this is expected to be a front-runner dominated race, with the two favourites Singing (4) and Supply And Demand (1) likely to get a pretty easy time up on the pace and make it hard for a longer-priced runner to finish over the top.

The ‘Cock however thinks it isn’t that straight-forward, with both of those two currently well under their true market odds and as such, there is value to chomp on around them.

Carzoff (9) is the best value runner, import that put in his best run on AUS soil last start. Has trialled in between that win and this, and as long as Avdulla doesn’t fall asleep at the back of the field, he can be close enough to be a winning chance in the final stages at $5.50+.

Top rater is Singing (4), another having slight freshen up and was a dominant last start winner in the Gosford Cup. The ‘Cock suspects however that Supply And Demand (1) will attack in front today which could unsettle Singing (4) and at odds under $4.00, he doesn’t represent any value at his current price ($3.00).

Knockout chance at huge odds is Admiral Jello (6), down in the weights and his recent form suggests he is more than capable of being right in the finish provided the right run in transit. $15+ is excellent shopping.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Keen to largely pass on this race, small win bets on Carzoff (9) and Admiral Jello (6) at Best of the Best with Neds.

Race 7 – 4.25pm

Highlight of the day with cracking field assembled for the G1 Hobartville Stakes for the 3yo’s. Siege Of Quebec (6) should get over from barrier 10 to cross with Trapeze Artist (2) and Kermentari (3) relatively handy to the leader.

The ‘Cock is firmly in the Kermentari (3) camp, he looks the real deal this campaign with a commanding first-up rating as easily the best run of his career. Rise to 1400m really suits now, maps to get a charmed run and unless Glyn really outdoes himself with an ‘Up n Rolling’ type slaughter, this colt looks the goods with $2.40+ still good value.

Trapeze Artist (2) is the next best but touch of unders at current quote of $4.20 despite being a G1 winner over this trip. Side by side with Kermentari (3) heading into the straight, The ‘Cock is nudging strongly that he won’t be able to go with him.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Kermentari (3) looks the best horse in terms of ability and speed map positioning. Big whack at $2.40+ with Bet365.

Race 8 – 5.05pm

Open race that is $5.50 the field. They’ll rocket along in this`, with Princefamous (6), Memes (3), Fickle Folly (10) and Just A Bullet (14) all likely to gun forward and set a manic tempo.

Recommendation is to keep interest in this race relatively low given a lot will boil down to luck in running. The ‘Cock will be going ‘Meatloaf’ wide in the Quaddie.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

No bet race.

Race 9 – 5.45pm

Speed could be muddling here which will benefit runners that don’t get too far back, namely the favourite Bratislava (7).

He looks the safe play in the last at Rosehill. Was backed heavily when scoring by a narrow margin first-up over 1300m at this track. He gets in well at the weights here and will benefit from just a moderate tempo. The ‘Cock has Bratislava (7) marked $3.00 so the $3.80 on offer in early markets is value.

Next best in a tight bunch all around the $10-$13 region are Lofty’s Menu (2), Peacock (15), Dagny (6) and Level Eight (14).

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Keen to have decent sized bet on Bratislava (7). Last fav tends to always jump a bit shorter so lock in the $3.80+ early with Bet365 or via any Power Play/Boost type products.

Recommended Quaddie:

1,4,6,9/3/8,10,11,13,16/2,6,7,14,15.

$100 for 100%.

The ‘Cock’s best bet of the day in Kermentari stamped his dominance winning the Hobartville Stakes, getting out to a juicy $3.20 by race time. This highlights the huge benefit of betting with Bet365 as you get the protection of getting whatever is better between the fixed odds you take or the starting price. You simply must have a Bet365 account as part of your corporate portfolio.

Bratislava was the only other main bet on the card, backed off the map as predicted in the preview, firming from $3.80 into $3.20. He looked to have a good run but when produced for his effort in the straight, couldn’t find the zip required to be in the finish.

Morphettville

Race 6 – 3.36pm

Race can change complexion here with early market favourite Counterplay (1) a dual acceptor in both Melbourne and Adelaide. The ‘Cock will assess as if she is running.

The ‘Cock has Counterplay (1) rated just under even-money in this race as she looks to have this field covered by a fair margin in terms of ability. First-up run was solid, lack of fitness just told at the end of the race when unable to run down Joy Flipper as an odds-on fav. Bet365 for some ludicrous reason are offering $2.50 in early markets, snap that up if you are one of the rare few that are still allowed to be there.

Value play is El Desperado (2), better than average maiden win at Gawler and whilst the freshen up, drop in distance is a little bit of a concern, he can threaten at odds or be the one to beat should Counterplay (1) not run in Adelaide.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Launch on Counterplay (1) at $2.30+ with Bet365, one of the best bets around the land at those odds. Small bet on El Desperado (2) who looks the knockout chance at $6.00+.

Race 7 – 4.16pm

Two standouts in early markets, with in form SA sprinter Blue Tycoon (8) at $2.20 and VIC raider Star Stealer (2) at $3.20.

Like trying to seperate who had the best ‘chest pineapples’ in the 1990’s (Pamela Anderson or Yasmine Bleeth), The ‘Cock can’t seperate these two favourites with both marked around $2.50 meaning Star Stealer (2) looks the slight value option at his early market price of $3.20. He will relish the likely hot tempo and will loom as a winning chance late in the race.

This Kid Rocks (4) looks well under his true price at $6.50, hasn’t hit a level this prep to suggest he can get close to the two favourites and The ‘Cock is excluding him from Quaddie investments.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Two favourites have panels on this field. Star Stealer (2) the only betting option though in early markets, have medium sized bet at $3.00+.

Race 8 – 4.56pm

A lot of speed here, with the Darwin sprinter He’s Our Woody (1) likely to burst forward with a host of others in search of the lead.

Darren Weir brings Avanti Rose (9) back to Adelaide where she is no stranger, having run here three times for one win in January over 1000m. She’s getting up in class now and from an inside gate, she’ll need luck to pierce through the field late and win. Definite one to beat but wouldn’t be taking under $2.50 about her.

Oamaru Owl (3) looks a real danger. He has held ratings in last three starts despite finding trouble on the home turn at Morphettville last time out over 1100m. Back to 1000m, he can settle midfield and if leaders go crazy as expected, he can swamp them late at value odds.

He’s Our Woody (1) is an underrated commodity, would be bigger chance obviously if less early speed in this race but like appointment of senior jockey and expect he’ll be wound right up here to be competitive with $10+ excellent shopping.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

No value with Avanti Rose (9) who has been well found. Keen to have medium sized bet on Oamaru Owl (3) at $5.00+ and pimple size bet on He’s Our Woody (1) at Best of the Best with Neds.

Race 9 – 5.36pm

Wide open race to round off proceedings, with speed to come from Lord Topper (1) and Tycoon Sofie (13).

Not really a race to get involved in apart from Tycoon Sofie (13), who will be up in a gun forward spot and looks huge overs at current quote of $11 given she can rate on par with any of the shorter priced horses, and Galaxy Gazer (3), who gets nice claim and will be finishing off strong at $17 in an even race.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Small bets on outsiders Tycoon Sofie (13) at $9.00+ and Galaxy Gazer (3) at $13+.

Recommended Quaddie:

1,2/2,8/1,3,9/1,2,3,4,6,13,16.

$100 for 119%.

Scratchings had a major impact on the Quaddie legs, with key runners in Counterplay (race 6), Star Stealer (race 7) and Avanti Rose (race 8) all withdrawn.

Small losing day for The ‘Cock in Adelaide, Tycoon Sofie at $13 in the last went very close to making it a winning one. No horses of note worth following from this meeting.

Ascot

Race 5 – 6.25pm

You can throw a blanket over these. Not a lot of pace on paper, with Keeper’s Son (9) looking the beneficiary as he’ll get a fairly easy time of it up front.

Stoicism (10) looks rock bottom odds at $3.00, The ‘Cock scratching his feathers at why he is so short in the market with an overreaction to the issues he suffered last start when second at Pinjarra. His ratings dipped last prep when extended past 1600m and at his current price, he is a lay.

Keeper’s Son (9) could pinch this at odds, normally a 3kg claiming female apprentice certainly doesn’t tickle the ivories but Mollie Clark will have a simple assignment (get to the front and dictate). Given those factors, the $10 on offer is appealing.

Rare Coin (5) is the narrow top rater, won last two in town over a trip similar to this and from a handy spot, he’ll be thereabouts again.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Playing around short priced fav Stoicism (10), backing Rare Coin (5) and Keeper’s Son (9) to upset him at much better odds. Back both at Best of the Best with Neds.

Race 6 – 7.05pm

Small field but intriguing race with the early market favourite Eleven Seconds (9) coming up odds-on. He should be up on the pace with Woodsville (4), with the tempo expected to only be fair.

Eleven Seconds (9) rates on top but definitely isn’t a flip of the coin chance. Has looked the goods winning last couple in weaker company but he meets some more seasoned types here and under $3.00, he must be looked over as a bet.

The ‘Cock will be launching on Woodsville (4) at the $11 with Bet365 in early markets. Old timer that should get a nice run up front with little pressure. He’s deep into his campaign now but holding his form and repeat of his runs at his last three starts would have him seriously challenging the favourite.

Wary of Im Feeling Lucky (3), keep safe with small win bet at $7.50+ and in Quaddie investments.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Take the $11 on Woodsville (4) ASAP with Bet365. He looks huge overs in a race where the market has got the favourite in way too short. Small bet at Best of the Best of I’m Feeling Lucky (3).

Race 7 – 7.42pm

Several of the key runners in this resume from spells which raises some caution about getting too heavily involved from a betting perspective. Expect the speed to be intense, which will play into the hands of those that get a good run from a midfield to backward position.

One of those back markers that will be favoured is Get Over It (2), who is the class runner of the field. $3.70+ first up is appealing although market moves will be indicative if he is wound up to go.

Minus Looks (12) is another first-up runner that looks overs at current price of $11, include in Quaddie investments.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Largely a no bet race given so many first-up runners, have something small on Get Over It (2) and Minus Looks (12) at Best of the Best with Neds.

Race 8 – 8.17pm

Speed map works against The ‘Cock’s two top raters in Regal Moon (11) and Snow Blossom (7) given they will settle back and be disadvantaged by a fair to slow tempo.

Both are marked around the $4.00 region which is there current market price so value could be hard to procure. Snow Blossom (7) is the narrow top rater, maintained excellent form this prep despite finding trouble in most recent runs and if she can settle closer to the speed today than usual, she is the one to beat.

Recommended Betting Strategy:

Given speed map factors, lowering bet size on Snow Blossom (7) and Regal Moon (11) to small bets at Best of the Best with Neds.

Recommended Quaddie:

3,4,5,8,9/3,4,5,9/2,8,11,12/2,7,11.

$100 for 41.7%.

It was a case of almost for The ‘Cock in the wild west, with value bets in Keeper’s Son at $12 and Woodsville at $16 both running second in their respective races. Snow Blossom was scratched from the last race.

For the two key runners identified as take on propositions, Stoicism in race 5 won at $3.00 while Eleven Seconds in race 6 lost as a red-hot $1.90 favourite.