Australian Guineas Preview
"Whilst the mainstream are frothing over the return of Winx this Saturday, the 'Cock is far more excited about the rest of the days racing which are far more suited to punters. He's particularly excited about a few specific races, including the G1 Guineas where he's found one that looks like an outstanding bet at the odds."
Cheat Sheet
Flemington Race 3 - 1.55PM
Plenty of speed in this which will play right into the hands of the El Rada (7), who The ‘Cock has as his clear top rater and one of the better value bets around ‘Straya this Saturday.
The underrated Archie Alexander has got this mare humming, capped off with a flying win at Ballarat over 1100m last start. On paper the jump up in class looks steep but she only needs to pretty much hold form of last start to be the testing material, with the $7.50 in early markets a lot longer than what The ‘Cock has her marked.
Fragonard (1) is the big danger but he is well found at $3, would need $4+ at the very least to entertain him as a betting proposition.
Wildcard runner could be Club Tropicana (8), who will like the expected hot tempo as she can come off the speed and let down with a strong effort. $8+ is good value.
Recommended Betting Strategy:
Scoop up the overs on El Rada (7), with $7.50+ which is excellent odds. Save on Club Tropicana (8), who should get out to double digits on race day.
Flemington race 8 - 5.10PM
They’ll scorch down the straight here, with speedster Sunday Escape (9) bound to try and lead all the way.
Fell Swoop (1) has been a significantly better performer than these over his career but form tapered off last spring. However, if he can rate around the same mark he did when running 6th and 8th at first two runs in spring prep, he will be very hard to beat. He should also get a bit more give in the track (usually case at Flemington with curator Mick Goodie) which is favourable.
The big value proposition is Sunday Escape (9), who is a far better chance than what the early market odds of $14+ would indicate. He won at this track/trip last August posting a very high rating that if replicated here, would have him right in the finish (if not winning). Keep extremely safe.
Inclined to look around Secret Agenda (2) who is rock bottom odds at $4.40 or lower.
Recommended Betting Strategy:
Have something at $14+ on Sunday Escape (9), who is excellent value and could pinch this out in front. Fell Swoop (1) the top rater, worth a small bet at Best of the Best.
Randwick Race 7 - 4.10PM
Basic rematch of the G2 Light Fingers, with Alizee (2), Melody Belle (3) and Shumookh (6) all going around. The ‘Cock in that race had Shumookh (6) as his best bet around $12 and if not for sitting three wide, he’d still have his assistants Beryl and Sheryl in the counting room adding up the winnings (finished second beaten a lip).
Have to take $4.60 now but Shumookh (6) looks the danger to the red hot favourite Alizee (2). Should get an easier time in front and if allowed to roll along, she can prove hard to catch.
Alizee (2) rates clearly on top but The ‘Cock couldn’t be taking under $2.40 about her, she only becomes a real bet at $3 and beyond.
The real disappointment of that last race was Melody Belle (3) who was given a superb ride but left flat footed at the home turn. $13 this week for her is overs though and she gets one last chance.
Recommended Betting Strategy:
Betting up on Shumookh (6) at Best of the Best and having a good whack on Melody Belle (3) at the $13+ with Bet365 which is significant overs. Alizee (2) runner to beat but no value at $2.20.