Moonee Valley (Friday)

Race 5 – 8:30pm

Dance With Fontein (2) and Essence Of Terror (11) narrowly head Tintagel Rocker (5), Appalachian Annie (10), Mile High (13) and Lady Esprit (3).

A host of first up runners here that make for a low confidence betting race overall, and one where The ‘Cock would much prefer to watch them zip around the 955m course without an investment riding on it.

One to keep an eye on is the nine year old Tintagel Rocker, who has got two runs under his belt this campaign for two wins at Port Lincoln from career high rating performances. The ‘Cock has him rated closer to $15 than the $51 on offer currently.

Recommended as a no bet race, the winner Mile High a came from the top selections and paid $4.40.

Race 6 – 9:00pm

Sebring Dream (5), Pygmy (2) and Smart As You Think (6) are the top three, with Firenze (3) and Falika (4) the best of the rest.

This is a competitive race over the Cox Plate course but is another low confidence betting proposition in The ‘Cock’s expert opinion..

Sebring Dream saluted here last start over the mile and has got the scope to improve her rating with some added trip third up for the Lindsay Park team, rating a $5 chance and top pick.

Smart As You Think has performed well at The Valley previously and also has the important wet track ability that The ‘Cock touched on during the week (see here) to put herself right in the equation. Rates around the $6 mark.

Recommended as a no bet race, the winner Falika came from top selections at $3.60.

Race 7 – 9:30pm

In Her Time (9) and Vega Magic (2) are The ‘Cock’s clear top two here and the market agrees, with Chautauqua (1) the next in line behind them.

The ‘Cock has loved the last two wins of In Her Time up in Sydney and rated her Sydney Stakes performance last start almost equal to the run of Vega Magic for second in The Everest.

The ‘Cock has very little splitting these two who both rate as $3 chances, but the current $6 for In Her Time compared to the $2.20 for Vega Magic makes for a more enticing investment.

Chautauqua is always one to watch but he is not what he once was and can’t afford to give these top two a start over the tight Valley circuit. Will hit the line full of running but expect it to come too late.

Recommended Bet:

• In Her Time (9) – Rated: $3, Current Price: $6

In Her Time ran a strong second behind the $21 winner Hey Doc. 

Race 8 – 10:00pm

Bassett (2), Miss Gunpowder (3), Hellova Street (1), Demonstrate (6), Ruettiger (7), Suspense (12), Onerous (11), Well Sprung (9).

A wide array of winning chances in this final leg and it’s certainly one to play wide in the quaddie.

If there is any standout here it is Bassett, who rates a $5 chance and narrowly on top for The ‘Cock with his strong record at this track and trip and a very strong winning record with Mertens in the saddle. Will improve third up and be the best bet of the race should there be overs on offer.

Recommended Bet:

• Bassett (2) – Rated: $5, Current Price: $5.50

In from $5.50 to $4.60, Bassett finished 5th, with the top four placegetters Suspense, Hellova Street, Miss Gunpowder, Ruettiger in The ‘Cocks numbers.

Canterbury (Friday)

Race 5 – 8:15pm

Hallelujah Boy (1), Makeadane (5), Intueri (7), Crosley Hotshot (6), Classic Records (4), Medaille (3).

A ridiculously even race where The ‘Cock only deems one runner of the seven horse field incapable of winning, in a race where different formlines are tough to line up. Certainly one to let fly through to the keeper.

Recommended as a no bet race, the winner Medaille came from top selections at $2.25.

Race 6 – 8:45pm

To Excess (2) and Revenire (7) are the top two, with a solid gap to Il Mio Destino (3), Elemenophee (4) and Realise Potential (1) as the next group.

Another race The ‘Cock has little interest in, with a number of first up runners and no value to be had on the top two currently at $2.50 and $2.30 respectively.

Recommended as a no bet race, the winner Fifteen Sunflowers upset the $1.85 favourite Revenire. 

Race 7 – 9:15pm

Lady Jivago (4), Annandale Lass (11), Bright Future (13), Il Mio Destino (15), Va Va Veni (3), Hay Now (9), Hammoon Boy (8), Epic Dan (5), Knit N Purl (6).

Canterbury really is providing betting races that are as exciting as a Geoff Boycott innings on the subcontinent tonight. Another even and unspectacular field here with few standout betting prospects.

Lady Jivago is the best of them having produced her highest rating run since January with a very tight fifth at this track and trip last week. The ‘Cock rates her a $5.50 chance, but with hardly anything splitting these top six he would not be betting.

Recommended as a no bet race, the winner Il Mio Dio came from top selections at $9

Race 8 – 9:45pm

Baysa (7), Concessions (4), Lead Choreographer (1), Tumultuous (3), Rosettas Whey (6), Lord Kingsley (5).

The night ends as it started, with an incredibly even field making for a nothing betting race.

Baysa rates on top, but both she and the other race favourite Lead Choreographer are currently unders at $3.50 and $4 respectively and The ‘Cock is happy to continue the trend of letting these Canterbury legs go untouched.

Recommended as a no bet race, the winner Coys scored in a race decimated by scratchings.

Moonee Valley (Saturday)

Race 7 – 3:35pm

Mintha (4), Speedway (5) and Banish (2) sit on top of I’ll Have A Bit (1) and Pageantry (6) as next best duo.

A tough race to assess with much of the field moving up and down in distance and a host of different form lines to consider, but the favourite Mintha rates $4.50 and marginally on top for The ‘Cock. Should be better for her first start over the mile at Caulfield a fortnight ago, and while that performance does mean distance remains a query she was superb here a start prior to that over 1200m when running second behind Houtzen.

Speedway has never missed the top two in four starts at the mile so should appreciate dropping back from 2000m for this, whereas Banish heads in the opposite direction but should equally enjoy the mile, after a respectable effort over 1200m in her only previous start here.

Recommended as a no bet race, the winner Banish came from top selections at $7, as did second placed I’ll Have A Bit ($2.80 the place).

Race 8 – 4:10pm

It’s Somewhat (1) and Religify (4) narrowly head Burning Front (3) as the top three, with Sound Proposition (8) next best.

It’s Somewhat never fired a shot on return at Caulfield in the Rupert Clarke but The ‘Cock expects him to improve dramatically second up here over 1600m. Drawn well and rates a $3.80 chance for The ‘Cock, so the current $5.50 quote makes for a strong bet.

Religify isn’t rated far behind at $4.40 following a strong performance first up for second behind Fast N Rocking at Caulfield. The ‘Cock expects Hugh Bowman might be holding on fairly tight fifty minutes out from the Cox Plate.

Burning Front is a classic warhorse who has produced here previously and really likes the mile, and third up he can certainly push the top two. Rates $5 with The ‘Cock so is currently unders but has to be respected.

Recommended Bet:

It’s Somewhat (1) – Rated: $3.80, Current Price: $5.50

It’s Somewhat was $6 into $4.40 and ran third behind Religify and Lucky Hussler. 

Race 9 – 5:00pm

Winx (8) on top, then daylight, with a big gap to Gailo Chop (2) and Folkswood (5).

You don’t need the advice of Australia’s premier punter of the last thirty years to get this winner. There is good value to be had in the Winx Out markets though, so see The ‘Cock’s full runner by runner Cox Plate analysis here for the best of the rest.

Recommended Bet – Winx Out Markets:

Gailo Chop (2) – Rated: $2.50, Current Price: $4.50 – ½ stake
Folkswood (5) – Rated: $3, Current Price: $4.80 – ½ stake

Gailo Chop and Folkswood finished fifth and third respectively. The top two placegetters aren’t bad horses. 

Race 10 – 5:345pm

Aloisia (9) rates well ahead of the next best Cliffs Edge (1), who then has a gap to Sanctioned (2) and Salsamor (3).

Aloisia showed huge improvement second up to win the Thousand Guineas and The ‘Cock thinks she looks well suited to going again at the 2000m. Monitor the pattern throughout the day but if the rail remains the place to be after seventeen races in 36 hours she will be very hard to beat, and The ‘Cock rates her a $2.50 shot.

Cliffs Edge is the main danger for Weir and Zahra after saluting over 2000m at Caulfield last Saturday but will need to improve on that to topple Aloisia. Certainly capable but currently unders at $2.40 compared to The ‘Cocks rating as a $4 chance.

Recommended Bet:

Aloisia (9) – Rated: $2.50, Current Price: $2.70

Aloisia was a super impressive winner at $3.10, beating the $2.50 favourite Cliffs Edge.

Randwick

Race 6 – 3:55pm

Firsthand (4) and To Excess (6) are narrowly on top of Chalk (10) as the top three chances, with Redouble (8), Zumbelina (1) and Alaskan Wolf (9) the best of the rest.

Firsthand resumed with a strong third last start at this track and trip and The ‘Cock thinks he can go better again here today, but with the multitude of genuine winning chances around him The ‘Cock would prefer to save his units on this one.

The top rated chance Firsthand was the winner at $4.80, ahead of the new two rated chances To Excess and Chalk (trifecta $105).

Race 7 – 4:35pm

Tumultuous (10) is the best of a tight race, rating on top of Zaunkonig (4), Ardanza (13), Shock Alert (6) and Lead Choreographer (8).

Tumultuous has come back this campaign in form that is anything but what the name suggests, with strong thirds at Rosehill when fresh and Warwick Farm last start. Up in trip to 2000m here which hasn’t traditionally suited, but The ‘Cock thinks he looks more capable to see it out than in recent preps. Expect he can rate well enough to win today and is marked $5 by The ‘Cock so the $7.50 on offer represents good value.

Zaunkonig has put together strong performances at this trip consistently in the past, and while matching those efforts will have him thereabouts, he will have to improve to beat Tumultuous’ best effort. Sixth up and at a track he is winless at from five attempts that seems unlikely but not impossible so monitor the market.

Recommended Bet:

Tumultuous (10) – Rated: $5, Current Price: $7.50

Tumultuous scratched, the winner Karavali came in from $7 to $3.50 on raceday. 

Race 8 – 5:20pm

Sir Plush (13) sits on top with a slight gap to Mighty Lucky (6), Kaepernick (5), Got Unders (8) and Oxford Poet (9).

The ‘Cock expects Sir Plush only has to hold the form from his past two starts to bring up a hat-trick of wins here today, rating him a $3.50 chance and a good bet at the current $5.50.

Mighty Lucky is the main challenger having run a tight second to Sir Plush over this same course last start three weeks ago but really expecting the same result in this.

Kaepernick is another leading chance in the market currently but The ‘Cock doubts he will be able to topple Sir Plush over this distance.

Recommended Bet:

Sir Plush (13) – Rated: $3.50, Current Price: $4.50

Sir Plush fourth, the roughie winner Cabeza De Vaca at $17 led a trifecta payout of $1,226.

Race 9 – 5:55pm

Interlocuter (8), Black On Gold (9), Veladero (10), Shalmaneer (12), Etymology (7), Embley (1) and Dark Eyes (2) top this race to close the day.

This is a very tough betting race to close and The ‘Cock wouldn’t be getting too involved with it, with very little splitting this top bunch and question marks right throughout the field.

The top rated runner Interlocuter the winner at $1.75, Black On Gold second. 

Doomben

Race 7 – 3:02pm

Helarocity (10), Tycoon Ace (7), Too Good To Refuse (4), Hopfgarten (1)

This will be a no bet race given the question marks that hang over the top chances, who are either first up or in off a let up, and The ‘Cock can’t have great confidence in them performing to previous form under those circumstances.

Helarocity rates on top as a $6 chance, coming in from a four week freshen up today, which is a tactic that has seen him improve in the past. With consecutive wins on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts prior to that let up he would only have to match the last start rating to win this.

Tycoon Ace has got a strong first up record with four top two runs in five fresh outings which bodes well for this, though The ‘Cock isn’t enticed by the sub $4 odds on offer for one he rates around the $6 mark.

Hopfgarten is one at the top end of the market who will have to improve again on his first up win here a fortnight ago, but traditionally he regresses second up so while he will be thereabouts The ‘Cock would prefer to leave him. Similarly, leading market chance Cantbuybetter hasn’t produced a rating high enough to win this first up previously and his best runs tend to come over longer trips later in the campaign.

A recommended no bet race where Hi I’m Back scored as a $15 roughie to head a first four that paid $4.5k.

Race 8 – 3:44pm

My Girl Hayley (10), Our Beebee (12) and Ice Frost (9) are the clear top three, but there is very little separating them and question marks on each, making for another low confidence betting race.

My Girl Hayley produced a career peak rating last start to win on the Sunshine Coast and hasn’t missed the top two in her last five appearances. Jim Byrne in the saddle again, but her two main rivals measure up to her very well.

Our Beebee is still only lightly raced but produced his highest ever rating run off a break at Ipswich first up when finishing a very tight fourth. Got better further into her last prep so expect she can improve on that again and match My Girl Hayley.

Ice Frost has collected two wins and a close second from her three starts back this prep but will need to improve again at her first effort over 1200m to match the top two. The ‘Cock certainly won’t rule it out but there’s too much uncertainty to be confident.

The top rated My Girl Hayley was as a $3.50 winner, with the next two rated chances Our Beebee and Ice Frost rounded out the trifecta.

Race 9 – 4:30pm

Belflyer (9) is the clear top rater in this race but there’s hardly anything to split the next ten chances on behind him.

Belflyer brings strong provincial form into this and The ‘Cock thinks the market has underestimated it, with four high rating wins from his last five starts and a big drop in weight to further help his cause today. Just has to hold the form to account for this field, rating a $5 chance for The ‘Cock and sitting well over the odds at $12 currently.

Recommended Bet:

Belflyer (9) – Rated: $5, Current Price: $12

Belflyer paid $3.90 for third, behind winner Capetown Hussey who came in from $12 to $6.40.

Race 10 – 5:10pm

Privlaka (6) and In His Stride (11) rate comfortably ahead of all others, with Courtza King (8), Drumbeats Choice (10) and Realing (16) next best.

Each of these top rated chances come in off a break so this is another hard race to have a great deal of confidence in.

Privlaka has a 50% strike rate first up and saluted by four lengths on a heavy ten fresh last campaign, with a repeat of that rating more than enough to account for this field. Has the scope to blitz them, and the worse the track condition the better.

In His Stride’s best work tends to come later in his preparations but his most recent two efforts of a break have rated well enough to put him second in line if he can replicate it here.

Privlaka and In His Stride both just outside the money, Courtza King third. 

Morphettville

Race 4 – 3:46pm

Rokda Kasba (3) narrowly heads Presumption (11) and Captain Duffy (1) as The ‘Cock’s top three for this one, with Table Of Wisdom the best of the rest.

Rockda Kasba rates very highly for The ‘Cock as a $5 chance, crossing the border after a last start effort at Cranbourne against much better company that measures up well here. Third up now for Hayes, Hayes & Dabernig and that $9 currently on offer is overs compared to The ‘Cocks $5 rating.

Presumption has been consistently rating at a level which will have him at the pointy end of this race, including the last start win at Murray Bridge so he certainly can’t be ignored. Similarly, Captain Duffy had a last start win here over 1800m and group form this time last year, and while The ‘Cock expects he needs to improve on recent efforts to beat Rockda Kasba, it wouldn’t be a complete shock.

No bet race but the winner Captain Duffy came from The ‘Cock’s top selections at $4.20, with top rater Rockda Casba paying $3.20 for third.

Race 5 – 4:21pm

Angelucci (8), Red Menace (10), Jet Express (5), Wasabi Bob (6) and Hell On Earth (3) are the top five in this open race.

Angelucci has two wins on the bounce at Gawler coming into this one and looks to be trending in the right direction to measure up well here. Hit the line like a Gold Coast footballer on an end of season trip on both those occasions at 1500m so the mile here will be no problem and rates $4.50 with The ‘Cock so look for overs.

Red Menace has got good provincial form of recent times, with a last start Murray Bridge win and three strong thirds prior to that, but The ‘Cock thinks the month between runs will count against him today. Rate him around $5 mark and he is currently almost triple that price.

Jet Express has two minor placings from his two previous starts at the track and trip and recent provincial efforts rate highly enough to suggest he will be in the finish once again today, rating at $7 in the current market.

Recommended Bet:

Red Menace (10) – Rated: $5, Current Price: $13

Red Menace a drifting roughie on raceday and was unplaced, with both the $8 winner Jet Express and second placegetter Wasabi Bob featuring in The ‘Cock’s numbers.

Race 6 – 5:11pm

Labuan Star (5) rates on top, with Chamois Road (2) and Lord Aspen (1) next in line with a gap to the rest.

Lauban Star has had a month since his last start at Moonee Valley which was respectable, and showed strong Victorian provincial form in the three starts prior to that this campaign. Does his best work fresh so expect improvement here, rating $2.80 for The ‘Cock.

Chamois Road has got the sort of metronomic consistency that would make Glenn McGrath blush, having hardly missed the money in his 26 start career. Gets back in distance today but that is of no concern and expect him to run well again.

Recommended Bet:

Lauban Star – Rated: $2.80, Current Price: $3

Lauban Star disappointed and missed the money as second favourite. The winner Lord Aspen found at $4.50.

Race 7 – 6:00pm

Invisible Girl (14), This Kid Rocks (1) and Mile High (6) are the top three in a race where there are too many first up runners to be betting confidently.

Invisible Girl is now fourth up following a win at this track and trip two weeks ago and is well placed to go back to back here, with the fitness edge on the large majority of the field. $4 current quote aligns with The ‘Cock’s rating.

This Kid Rocks is well fancied in the market but The ‘Cock has queries over whether he can produce to a level that is needed to win here first up. Has a win and three minors from his four previous first up runs, but this will require a higher level performance and would need a touch longer than this to make that happen.

A no bet race where Invisible Girl and This Kid Rocks both missed the money. 

Ascot

Race 5 – 5:45pm

Gunnago (11) leads all comers, with Blitzem Someday (8), Red Paddy (3) and Gigante (1) the next best trio.

Gunnago is first up with Pike on board and looks primed again first up, having kick started his last prep with a great win fresh and going on to get another two wins and two minors from the last four outings of the campaign. The ‘Cock rates him a $2.20 chance.

Recommended Bet:

Gunnago (11) – Rated: $2.20, Current Price: $2.25

Gunnago disappointed massively as favourite to run sixth, though top rated chances Blitzen Someday and Gigante ran second and third. 

Race 6 – 6:20pm

Ocean Jewel (6) is the only standout on top, with Epic Grey (2), Truly Belong (10), Perfect Jewel (9) and Art Series (8) next best.

A tough race to assess overall with the haphazard and unconvincing formlines throughout but Ocean Jewel rates on top, as a horse who looks capable of bigger and better things after three wins and a second from her four career starts. Up in distance on her last two wins but saluted at 1200m on debut so no concerns there, rating her a $3 top pick so look for overs.

Expect the other top rates to run fair races but The ‘Cock can’t see them improving on previous efforts to topple Ocean Jewel, though Perfect Jewel has the most scope to do so. Comes back to the city after a win at York last start and with Pike on board she has to be respected, though The ‘Cock rates her closer to $6 and considers the $3.20 unders.

A no bet race given the plethora of queries but the $2.60 winner Perfect Jewel and placegetters Epic Grey and Art Series all included in The ‘Cock’s top selections.

Race 7 – 6:55pm

La Mouline (14), Bold Success (11) and Rhis Rocket (2) sit as the clear top three for The ‘Cock but none currently inspire enough confidence to justify this as a betting race.

La Mouline has got a strong record across the first five starts of her career including a last start win at Geraldton. Will need to improve on that effort to win here, but third up with Pike in the saddle The ‘Cock wouldn’t back against it. Rate her $3.30.

Rhi’s Rocket won nicely at Northam last start and The ‘Cock likes him even more over the 1200m he gets today. Think he is a very strong rough option at $23 currently, with The ‘Cock rating him a $6 chance.

The top rated La Mouline did improve on her last start effort to run out a good winner here at $2.10. Rhi’s Rocket was also backed from $23 into $7.

Race 8 – 5:45pm

War Jeune (11), Key To Fame (3), Chasing Chaos (12), Diablerie (5), Final Salute (7), War God (4) are The ‘Cocks top six in an incredibly even race to finish the day. Play it wide in the quaddie and don’t think on it any more than that.

Found the $13 winner War God and top rated War Jeune ran second from Diablerie.