The Melbourne Cup

Cross Counter – $14

Last year’s winner – and reason for The ‘Cock’s massive fill up celebrations – fronts up again with solid form behind the number 1 stayer in the world Stradivarius. Has just the 1 win since his Melbourne Cup triumph and will find this much harder carrying the 57.5 compared to last years 51. The ‘Cock has him rated marginally off the top few this year. He can put in a run but ultimately the weight will be a factor.

Mer De Glace – $7.50

Huge Caulfield Cup where he picked them up with ease, like The ‘Cock with the fillies off the track on Derby Day. Comes here as the rightful race favourite. The query is the distance. If he stays he goes close. The ‘Cock has him marked in the top few and couldn’t talk you out of him. It’s been the carnival of the Japanese thus far, and it could very easily continue.

Master of Reality – $21

One thing is for certain, he will stay. Exclusively races over the 2400m and rarely runs a horror race, with the consistency of Glenn McGrath’s line and length. Has the Lloyd factor plus Dettori. The issue looks to be his ability to be able to change gears, which he will need against some of these others. Looks one for the exotics rather than the winner.

Mirage Dancer – $34

Rates in the midfield after a nice third in the Caulfield Cup. Looks like he will be able to get the distance but also seems to lack that Group 1 polish that will be required, especially when up in the weights.

Southern France – $26

The ‘Cock loves his château in the south of France but isn’t letting that get in the way of his expert analysis, with the form stacking up very well for this Irish import. Beat Downdraft two starts ago when was well backed. Has been running in some solid staying races against quality opposition. Comes in nicely at $26 and is one for the value players. Look for him to run a massive race.

Hunting Horn – $35

Great win last start in the Moonee Valley Cup however before that had struggled to win in Group 1 company. Won’t get it as easy as he did at The Valley, where here he will be required to slug it out down the straight the whole way. The ‘Cock has him around the middle of the pack here.

Latrobe – $26

Looks tested in a brutal 3200m. Was beaten by Twilight Payment ($71 for the Cup) three starts ago which doesn’t read well. Looks more suited to the 2400m.

Mustajeer – $18

Has the in form Oliver aboard but maybe lacks a little class. Will get the trip but has yet to win a Group race. Should be closer to the $35 mark after a middling performance in the Caulfield Cup. The ‘Cock is happy to steer clear.

Rostropovich – $71

Just isn’t going well enough to justify a bet on him. Will most likely roll forward but needs a major improvement on what he has shown this prep because at his current level, The ‘Cock would rather bet on a quiet NRL off-season.

Twilight Payment – $71

Looks to be the least favoured import and the price is about right. Hard to mount a genuine case off what he has produced.

Finche – $10

The big giraffe has everything going for him. Got the jockey, the gate and looks well weighted. Rolls along and always gives a sight. Gets a kilo back on Mer De Glace and McEvoy should be able to park in behind the pace and let him go to work over the last 600m. Waller is winning everything, this won’t be any surprise.

Prince of Arran – $21

Hard to rule him out but looks a better place chance according to The ‘Cock’s expert eye. Great win in the Geelong Cup where The ‘Cock’s subscribers filled up, rates in the top half of the field and is a proven performer on the day.

Raymond Tusk – $17

Form overseas looks solid and he should be peaking at the right time. Gets a nice draw in barrier 3 and if he can improve upon his Ebor run then right in this. Rates well with The ‘Cock and could very well be powerful factor like his House of Cards namesake.

Downdraft – $21

Booked his ticket with a great win in The Hotham. Rates in the top handful for The ‘Cock and comes up a good price, certainly worth watching for those who like a bit of value.

Magic Wand – $27

Hasn’t drawn well at all. O’Brien and Moore a great combination but this would be some effort from the gate. 3200m a query. Looks about the right price and The ‘Cock is more than happy to steer clear.

Neufbosc – $251

Would need to start running now to have any chance.

Sound – $151

Similar. Can’t win. You’d be better off hunting for a feature with $5 spins than investing here.

Surprise Baby – $17

No help with the draw for the local hope. Hasn’t been racing in this sort of company so will need a new peak run. Looks the right price now. Rates in the top 10 for The ‘Cock.

Constantinople – $8.50

The ‘Cock’s top rated. Looks a very similar formline to Rekindling and Cross Counter where The ‘Cock’s subscribers filled up. Is a Northern Hemisphere 3yo, well weighted after the Caulfield Cup run where he was very good once got clear running.

Il Paradiso – $15

Again has a very similar profile to the past two winners. Is a lightly raced Northern Hemisphere 3yo. Gets in well at the weights. The Barrier is the concern but if he overcomes that then will be in this, and The ‘Cock will be watching this US import closely.

Steel Prince – $81

Can’t win. Just not good enough in this sort of company.

The Chosen One – $101

Can’t win. You’d be better off investing in a pyramid scheme from an old high school classmate than risking your units here.

Vow And Declare – $12

The best of the Australian horses. Hasn’t been given any favours with the draw but if Williams can work his magic on the big stage like Pinker Pinker in the Cox Plate, then he will be in the finish.

Youngstar – $51

She isn’t going well enough, far better options than this battler.

Recommended Betting Strategy 

Assume you have $1000 to work with

Constantinople $500 @8.50

Vow and Declare $200 @$12

Il Paradiso $150 @$15

Downdraft $100 @$20

Southern France $50 @$26