The 'Cock's Guide To Following The Service

The ‘Daily Best Bets’ are runners each day that meet a strict selection criteria, ensuring that they return a strong long term profit on turnover figure.

These runners will only be included when The ‘Cock has a high degree of confidence on not only its expected performance, but also the expected performance of any dangers in the race. They will be runners who The ‘Cock rates as clearly the most likely winner of the race.

Given how strict this selection criteria is, there will be days (particularly early in the week) where no runners are included. They will only ever be included if the odds available exceed The ‘Cock’s rated price.

The ‘Cock will also avoid tipping runners who are ‘long’ odds on, however there will be times where a runner is the right price in early markets when the tip is posted but shortens to a long odds on quote before the jump. Mathematically speaking, a $1.50 runner will still lose one in every three times – so be mindful that what you might otherwise consider a ‘sure thing’ still has a 33% chance of losing.

Given the competitiveness of metropolitan racing & the higher quality of horses who compete, it is less likely that a runner will be a standout in those races and therefore many of the best bets will be in country races. This is why The ‘Cock puts together the ‘Metro Cheat Sheet’ as a separate product as that can focus on betting on the more enjoyable, albeit harder, races of the week.

Tips are always added at approximately 6pm for races the following day. The ‘Cock continues to recommend using Bet365 for these early prices given not only that they’re often one out at the top of the market, but they also offer an SP guarantee on fixed odds bets which gives you insurance if it does indeed drift.

If you want to make a long term profit you should have a set stake on every single bet that is published, taking the early fixed price with Bet365 and not altering your strategy based on how you’ve been performing. Any adjustment to this such as avoiding certain types of races, having extra on particular runners or creating multi’s will most likely result in your profit on turnover figure being reduced.

Regression analysis on runners selected using The ‘Cock’s selection criterion during all of 2017 shows a 14% profit on turnover figure, but the interesting point is that you would return a loss in 5/12 months. This highlights the importance of maintaining a consistent staking strategy because for every mug punter that drops off after a losing month, there’s a sharp follower who sticks it out and is rewarded with a long term profit. Sharp punters understand the inevitability of losing months, mug punters do not.

The Metro Cheat Sheet covers the quaddy leg races of all metropolitan racing each week, as well as the early races for the feature meeting on a Saturday. It is designed to give followers an overview of each race, with insights into the overall competitiveness, top assessed chances, best betting prospects & runners to take on.

The first component of the race analysis will outline whether it is a good or bad betting race & will list the top assessed chances in the order that The ‘Cock has them rated. This will give an indication as to whether The ‘Cock has only a few runners that have strong winning chances, or whether its a race that goes very deep with a large number who can win & there not being much that splits them. A Peacock logo will appear next to any races which are considered strong betting races, which will allow you to quickly assess which ones to focus on if you want to look through quickly.

Following this, The ‘Cock will give a more detailed insight into any particular runners who he likes as betting prospects.

The final section will outline the recommended betting strategy for the race. This will outline whether its a race where your best option may be to stay clear completely, or whether its one to play aggressively. If The ‘Cock is very confident on a runner, it does not always mean that it will be listed in the daily best bets for the reasons & selection criteria noted above.

Betting strategy is very much a result of what odds are available. If The ‘Cock’s top selection is assessed as a $3 chance & the best price available is $2, then it is not a runner to back if you want to make a long term profit despite the fact it has the highest assessed chance of winning. For this reason, The ‘Cock may suggest the best bet in the race is a runner who isn’t actually the top rated runner – this might be when a runner is rated a $5 chance, but $10 is available in the market. The ‘Cock provides more information on this concept in this article.

In races where The ‘Cock likes multiple runners as betting prospects, he may advise splitting your stake. This means that if you usually have $100 on one runner, you will have $33 on three runners. Or if you’re betting to win $1000, you’ll back each of the three runners to win either $333 or $1000 depending on how comfortable you are with your outlay.

The Cheat Sheet should cater for followers who want to bet in every race, as well as those who only want to have a few high confidence bets throughout the day. Be sure to read the summation of each race rather than just the numbers to help you decide how to play it.

The ‘Cock often gets asked about which runners to back in a multi. The reality is that multi’s are heavily skewed in the bookmakers favour and whilst they can be exciting to bet on, they’re not something that The ‘Cock will ever recommend as a long term strategy to make a profit. However if you do want to have a multi regardless, then The ‘Cock recommends choosing only the runners where The ‘Cock has noted that it’s a very high confidence betting race & combining those.

As always, if you would like any additional advice or clarification regarding your membership or betting strategy then please email [email protected].